ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
VValinorloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 27 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 25 games
Tusk
dEsire · 25 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Valinor
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
547 picks · 739 bans
Tusk
488 picks · 350 bans
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 540 bans
Shadow Demon
373 picks · 638 bans
Gyrocopter
362 picks · 548 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 157 bans
Mars
348 picks · 467 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:12
Zero Tenacity 88%Valinor 12%
The model gave 88% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 88%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1