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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 44 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 28 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 26 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 25 games
52%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 28 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 639 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
532 picks · 279 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 1191 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
429 picks · 267 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 703 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 459 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
377 picks · 242 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Zero Tenacity 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
51% · 275 games50% · 228 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
52% · 413 games43% · 262 games
Dragon Knightbottega
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
55% · 276 games50% · 185 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
50% · 42 games48% · 164 games
SilencerHtrd
Silencer
Dazzle
DazzleSe
51% · 127 games48% · 294 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct39:11
Zero Tenacity 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
52% · 168 games49% · 287 games
Morphlingbottega
Morphling
Lycan
LycanNefrit
54% · 91 game52% · 228 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckWorick
47% · 377 games51% · 305 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderSe
46% · 257 games59% · 141 game
Bounty Hunterprblms
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskdEsire
44% · 299 games47% · 231 game
SilencerHtrd
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2