Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 33 games
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 25 games
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 39 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 17 games
Batridersignature
not me · 15 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 14 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
Windranger
Shigetsu · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
497 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 233 bans
Clockwerk
339 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 346 bans
Windranger
318 picks · 228 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 395 bans
Bane
295 picks · 287 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:35
Zero Tenacity 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:00:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
Clinkzbottega
LargoMikSa`
InvokerRain
Ember SpiritWorick
Tidehunterkae
Keeper of the Lightmrls
LichXakoda
HoodwinkMoOz
Nyx AssassinWein
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1