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Streamers League #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
zxcursed Teamloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ALOHADANCE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

zxcursed Team

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
0%
Bane
Bane
dabbackwood · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Mindfvck · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mindfvck · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
akumaqqe · 1 game
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
dabbackwood · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
akumaqqe · 1 game
0%

ALOHADANCE Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
AfterLife · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
спортик · 2 games
0%
Lich
Lich
Madnexus · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
izverq · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
izverq · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Madnexus · 1 game
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
ALOHADANCE · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
632 picks · 444 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
597 picks · 339 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
434 picks · 641 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
422 picks · 486 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 357 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 381 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 496 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
317 picks · 974 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% zxcursed Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% zxcursed Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:44
zxcursed Team 60%ALOHADANCE Team 40%
The model gave 60% on zxcursed Team — the game was taken by ALOHADANCE Team in 51:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidShigetsu
51% · 21 game54% · 190 games
Shadow FiendALOHADANCE
Shadow Fiend
Lina
Linazxcursed
41% · 28 games46% · 258 games
Puckспортик
Puck
Doom
DoomMindfvck
50% · 199 games52% · 202 games
Centaur WarrunnerAfterLife
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
Snapfireakumaqqe
53% · 371 game49% · 123 games
UndyingMadnexus
Undying
Bane
Banedabbackwood
53% · 258 games45% · 104 games
Lionizverq
Lion
Game 2prediction correct43:43
zxcursed Team 58%ALOHADANCE Team 42%
The model gave 58% on zxcursed Team — the game was taken by zxcursed Team in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerShigetsu
56% · 25 games52% · 83 games
Viperспортик
Viper
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendzxcursed
51% · 196 games49% · 116 games
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMindfvck
51% · 94 games50% · 62 games
Drow RangerALOHADANCE
Drow Ranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerdabbackwood
48% · 56 games47% · 84 games
UndyingMadnexus
Undying
Lion
Lionakumaqqe
54% · 112 games45% · 138 games
Shadow Shamanizverq
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed43:52
zxcursed Team 58%ALOHADANCE Team 42%
The model gave 58% on zxcursed Team — the game was taken by ALOHADANCE Team in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
50% · 150 games52% · 206 games
Invokerспортик
Invoker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendzxcursed
51% · 195 games57% · 76 games
Drow RangerALOHADANCE
Drow Ranger
Mars
MarsMindfvck
51% · 136 games43% · 219 games
TidehunterAfterLife
Tidehunter
Bane
Banedabbackwood
53% · 138 games49% · 191 game
UndyingMadnexus
Undying
Tusk
Tuskakumaqqe
49% · 261 game46% · 188 games
Lionizverq
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritezxcursed Team · 65%
Series resultALOHADANCE Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3