Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.
profit
-29u
ROI
-32.8%
win rate
22%
bets
9
drawdown
4.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-49u
period 3profit withdrawn+20u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 9 | 22% | -29 | -32.8% | 4.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 9 | 22% | -30 | -33.2% | 4.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 9 | 22% | -57 | -32.4% | 9.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 9 | 22% | -133 | -31.4% | 20.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 9 | 22% | -242 | -30% | 35.1% | Select |
| Martingale | 9 | 22% | -250 | -67.5% | 29.2% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 9, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 971 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 980 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 3.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1000 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Lilmix | Lilmix | 3.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1010 |
| 28.07.26 | TDK – BAKS | BAKS | 3.01 | 10 | won | +20 | 1020 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1000 |
| 18.07.26 | PsychoFace – QUAZAR | PsychoFace | 3.00 | 10 | won | +20 | 1010 |
| 18.07.26 | ex-RUBY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 3.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.