Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-340u
ROI
-14.3%
win rate
49%
bets
249
drawdown
44.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+28u
period 3top-up-115u
period 2top-up-145u
period 1top-up-107u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | -340 | -14.3% | 44.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 49% | -356 | -14.3% | 46.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | -649 | -14.4% | 82.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 34 | 47% | -1000 | -60.5% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | -1410 | -14.4% | 167.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | -2238 | -14.4% | 241.2% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 660 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 670 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 10 | won | +3 | 663 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 660 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 10 | won | +8 | 652 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 645 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 637 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 629 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 621 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 631 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.58 | 10 | won | +6 | 623 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 618 |
| 14.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetBoom | BetBoom | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 628 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 638 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | The Last Resort | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 632 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 642 |
| 10.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Ground Zero | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 635 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | fnatic | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 628 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | DEPO | 1.63 | 10 | won | +6 | 622 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | LFO 7 | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 616 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 608 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | DENDELE | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 600 |
| 08.08.26 | ABT – 9INE | ABT | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 609 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 619 |
| 08.08.26 | 100 Thieves – NADE | 100 Thieves | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 613 |
| 07.08.26 | Virtus.pro – Sangal | Virtus.pro | 1.48 | 10 | won | +5 | 606 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | NIO | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 601 |
| 07.08.26 | BIG – z to forward | BIG | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 611 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | Jam | 1.77 | 10 | won | +7 | 603 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 595 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | 605 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | Galorys | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 599 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 591 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.69 | 9 | won | +7 | 586 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 579 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 589 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 10 | won | +4 | 599 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 10 | won | +6 | 594 |
| 03.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Noir Verse | Bushido Wildcats | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 588 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 582 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | Voca | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 575 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 585 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | DragonClaw | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 595 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | los kogutos | 1.87 | 10 | won | +8 | 604 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | THE UNIT | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 596 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | mellren | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 606 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 615 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.28 | 10 | lost | -10 | 610 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | Trouble makers | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 620 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | ALTAY | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 613 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 622 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 9 | won | +6 | 632 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | BC.Game | 1.88 | 9 | won | +8 | 627 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | Just Players | 1.64 | 9 | won | +6 | 619 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | HOTU | 1.46 | 9 | lost | -9 | 614 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | HOTU | 1.50 | 9 | won | +4 | 622 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 618 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 9 | won | +5 | 627 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | BOJONG | 1.77 | 9 | lost | -9 | 622 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Black Phoenix | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 631 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.