Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-367u
ROI
-15.4%
win rate
48%
bets
251
drawdown
44%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-50u
period 3top-up-64u
period 2profit withdrawn+11u
period 1top-up-264u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -367 | -15.4% | 44% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 251 | 48% | -403 | -16.1% | 48.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -674 | -14.8% | 79.8% | Select |
| Martingale | 47 | 34% | -1000 | -34.5% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -1367 | -13.7% | 154% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 251 | 48% | -2169 | -13.2% | 222% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 9 | won | +5 | 633 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | OG | 1.77 | 9 | won | +7 | 628 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 620 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.73 | 9 | won | +7 | 613 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 607 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 9 | won | +6 | 599 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Imperial | 1.63 | 9 | won | +6 | 594 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 588 |
| 15.08.26 | Imperial – BESTIA | Imperial | 1.82 | 9 | won | +7 | 581 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 9 | won | +5 | 574 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.52 | 9 | lost | -9 | 569 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 578 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 9 | lost | -9 | 587 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 9 | won | +5 | 596 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 9 | won | +5 | 591 |
| 13.08.26 | Just Players – MOUZ NXT | Just Players | 1.59 | 9 | lost | -9 | 586 |
| 12.08.26 | MIBR – Astralis | MIBR | 1.69 | 9 | lost | -9 | 595 |
| 11.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.63 | 9 | lost | -9 | 605 |
| 09.08.26 | EYEBALLERS – K27 | K27 | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 614 |
| 09.08.26 | Eternal Fire – BIG | Eternal Fire | 1.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | 607 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | fnatic | 1.69 | 9 | won | +6 | 616 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 9 | won | +8 | 610 |
| 08.08.26 | 1win – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 602 |
| 08.08.26 | Procyon – ODDIK Academy | ODDIK Academy | 1.68 | 9 | lost | -9 | 611 |
| 08.08.26 | Spirit HU – Acend | Acend | 1.58 | 9 | won | +5 | 621 |
| 08.08.26 | K27 – SINNERS | K27 | 1.70 | 9 | won | +6 | 615 |
| 08.08.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Imperial | 1.72 | 9 | won | +7 | 609 |
| 07.08.26 | HEROIC – 9INE | HEROIC | 1.86 | 9 | won | +8 | 602 |
| 07.08.26 | ABT – 9INE | ABT | 1.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | 594 |
| 06.08.26 | WW – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.83 | 9 | won | +8 | 604 |
| 05.08.26 | MAYBE – eSuba | eSuba | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 596 |
| 05.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – los kogutos | CYBERSHOKE | 1.67 | 9 | won | +6 | 605 |
| 05.08.26 | GamersLab – NAVI Junior | GamersLab | 1.87 | 9 | lost | -9 | 599 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 9 | won | +4 | 608 |
| 04.08.26 | Acend – Betclic | Acend | 1.67 | 9 | lost | -9 | 604 |
| 04.08.26 | Rooster – FURY | Rooster | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 613 |
| 03.08.26 | Walczaki – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 607 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.79 | 9 | lost | -9 | 600 |
| 03.08.26 | WBT – Leo | WBT | 1.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | 609 |
| 03.08.26 | Noir Verse – Fortress | Fortress | 1.88 | 9 | lost | -9 | 618 |
| 03.08.26 | 1win – ex-RUBY | ex-RUBY | 1.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 628 |
| 03.08.26 | WW – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 637 |
| 02.08.26 | 9INE – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 630 |
| 02.08.26 | FAVBET – MOUZ NXT | FAVBET | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 639 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – Vexar | Leo | 1.76 | 10 | won | +7 | 649 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | THE UNIT | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 642 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Trouble makers | THE UNIT | 1.88 | 10 | won | +8 | 652 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – Betclic | Betclic | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 643 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 653 |
| 01.08.26 | Walczaki – Lazer Cats | Walczaki | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 663 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 10 | lost | -10 | 673 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 9 | won | +6 | 683 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | BC.Game | 1.88 | 9 | won | +8 | 676 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 668 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | HOTU | 1.50 | 9 | won | +5 | 661 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 657 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.68 | 9 | lost | -9 | 666 |
| 30.07.26 | Just Players – Atreides | Just Players | 1.53 | 9 | won | +5 | 675 |
| 30.07.26 | Imperial – ShindeN | Imperial | 1.71 | 9 | lost | -9 | 670 |
| 30.07.26 | ENCE – BOJONG | BOJONG | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 680 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.