Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-1592u
ROI
-9.7%
win rate
51%
bets
249
drawdown
220.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+468u
period 3top-up-862u
period 2top-up-800u
period 1top-up-398u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -258 | -10.8% | 39.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 51% | -273 | -11% | 40.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -487 | -10.7% | 73% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -1028 | -10.3% | 148.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | -1592 | -9.7% | 220.1% | Selected |
| Martingale | 132 | 48% | -1767 | -30.4% | 164.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 163 | lost | -163 | -592 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 152 | won | +108 | -429 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 148 | won | +43 | -537 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.55 | 164 | lost | -164 | -580 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 153 | won | +114 | -416 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 141 | won | +116 | -530 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 131 | won | +106 | -645 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 121 | won | +97 | -751 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | Fire Flux | 1.79 | 135 | lost | -135 | -848 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.88 | 150 | lost | -150 | -714 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.58 | 141 | won | +82 | -564 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 130 | won | +112 | -646 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 124 | won | +66 | -758 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 117 | won | +63 | -824 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | The Last Resort | 1.77 | 130 | lost | -130 | -888 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 121 | won | +93 | -757 |
| 10.08.26 | Rooster – Abyssal | Rooster | 1.58 | 134 | lost | -134 | -850 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | fnatic | 1.54 | 128 | won | +69 | -715 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | DEPO | 1.63 | 120 | won | +76 | -784 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | LFO 7 | 1.89 | 110 | won | +98 | -860 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 102 | won | +83 | -958 |
| 09.08.26 | Inner Circle – Iberian Soul | Inner Circle | 1.46 | 97 | won | +45 | -1041 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | Iberian Soul | 1.62 | 92 | won | +57 | -1086 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | BRUTE | 1.60 | 87 | won | +52 | -1143 |
| 08.08.26 | REVENIX – levelONE | levelONE | 1.87 | 80 | won | +70 | -1195 |
| 07.08.26 | Orion Wanderers – Sashi | Sashi | 1.62 | 75 | won | +47 | -1264 |
| 07.08.26 | z to forward – DUSTY | DUSTY | 1.88 | 69 | won | +60 | -1311 |
| 07.08.26 | 1win – Citron | 1win | 1.66 | 65 | won | +42 | -1371 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | Jam | 1.77 | 60 | won | +46 | -1414 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.68 | 67 | lost | -67 | -1460 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 63 | won | +41 | -1393 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | Galorys | 1.82 | 58 | won | +47 | -1434 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 55 | won | +29 | -1481 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.69 | 51 | won | +35 | -1510 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 57 | lost | -57 | -1546 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.54 | 63 | lost | -63 | -1489 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 61 | won | +28 | -1425 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 57 | won | +38 | -1454 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.37 | 55 | won | +20 | -1492 |
| 03.08.26 | Isurus – ODDIK Academy | Isurus | 1.63 | 52 | won | +33 | -1513 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | Voca | 1.81 | 57 | lost | -57 | -1545 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.69 | 64 | lost | -64 | -1488 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | DragonClaw | 1.86 | 71 | lost | -71 | -1424 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Mai Tai | Bushido Wildcats | 1.58 | 67 | won | +39 | -1354 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | THE UNIT | 1.84 | 74 | lost | -74 | -1392 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | mellren | 1.67 | 82 | lost | -82 | -1318 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.54 | 78 | won | +42 | -1236 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.28 | 87 | lost | -87 | -1278 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Omega | Omega | 1.73 | 81 | won | +59 | -1191 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | ALTAY | 1.74 | 90 | lost | -90 | -1250 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | RayRay | 1.79 | 100 | lost | -100 | -1160 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | mellren | 1.65 | 13 | won | +8 | -1060 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | BC.Game | 1.88 | 12 | won | +10 | -1069 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | Just Players | 1.64 | 11 | won | +7 | -1079 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | HOTU | 1.46 | 12 | lost | -12 | -1086 |
| 31.07.26 | EAC – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 1.86 | 11 | won | +10 | -1074 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 13 | lost | -13 | -1084 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 12 | won | +7 | -1071 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | BOJONG | 1.77 | 13 | lost | -13 | -1078 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Black Phoenix | 1.80 | 12 | won | +10 | -1064 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.