Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-245u
ROI
-5.2%
win rate
55%
bets
249
drawdown
37%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-44u
period 3top-up-140u
period 2top-up-201u
period 1profit withdrawn+140u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 249 | 55% | +362 | +5.9% | 23% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -124 | -5.1% | 20.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 55% | -126 | -5.1% | 20.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -245 | -5.2% | 37% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -589 | -5.4% | 73.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 55% | -1110 | -5.8% | 109.8% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | 755 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 19 | won | +6 | 774 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 19 | won | +15 | 769 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 19 | won | +10 | 753 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 19 | won | +8 | 743 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 19 | lost | -19 | 735 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 19 | lost | -19 | 754 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 19 | won | +12 | 774 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 20 | lost | -20 | 762 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 782 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 802 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 21 | lost | -21 | 822 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 21 | won | +15 | 843 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora – M80 | Aurora | 1.68 | 20 | won | +14 | 828 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 21 | lost | -21 | 814 |
| 12.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SAW Youngsters | ex-RUSTEC | 1.63 | 20 | won | +13 | 835 |
| 09.08.26 | UNO MILLE – paiN Academy | UNO MILLE | 1.76 | 21 | lost | -21 | 822 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.82 | 21 | won | +17 | 843 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.77 | 21 | lost | -21 | 826 |
| 09.08.26 | K27 – SAW | K27 | 1.88 | 21 | won | +18 | 847 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | fnatic | 1.69 | 20 | won | +14 | 829 |
| 08.08.26 | LPH – Nexus | LPH | 1.81 | 21 | lost | -21 | 815 |
| 08.08.26 | INFINITE – Giant Pandas | INFINITE | 1.76 | 20 | won | +15 | 835 |
| 08.08.26 | 100 Thieves – NADE | 100 Thieves | 1.75 | 20 | won | +15 | 820 |
| 08.08.26 | Partizan – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 1.88 | 21 | lost | -21 | 805 |
| 07.08.26 | Prestige – Metizport | Prestige | 1.87 | 21 | lost | -21 | 826 |
| 07.08.26 | Walczaki – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.73 | 21 | won | +15 | 846 |
| 07.08.26 | FKOMAR – fnatic | fnatic | 1.51 | 20 | won | +10 | 831 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Ground Zero | 1.65 | 20 | won | +13 | 821 |
| 06.08.26 | Lavked – Black Phoenix | Black Phoenix | 1.57 | 20 | won | +11 | 808 |
| 06.08.26 | Imperial – ALKA | Imperial | 1.69 | 20 | won | +14 | 797 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.69 | 19 | won | +13 | 783 |
| 04.08.26 | fnatic – EAC | fnatic | 1.47 | 19 | won | +9 | 770 |
| 04.08.26 | Just Players – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.72 | 20 | lost | -20 | 761 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.83 | 20 | lost | -20 | 780 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Finishers | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 800 |
| 04.08.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 821 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.37 | 20 | won | +7 | 804 |
| 03.08.26 | Isurus – ODDIK Academy | Isurus | 1.63 | 20 | won | +12 | 797 |
| 03.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Misa | Misa | 1.88 | 20 | lost | -20 | 784 |
| 02.08.26 | ShindeN – BESTIA | BESTIA | 1.80 | 20 | won | +16 | 804 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – ex-MANA | Leo | 1.43 | 20 | lost | -20 | 788 |
| 02.08.26 | Mai Tai – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.48 | 20 | won | +10 | 809 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | los kogutos | 1.87 | 20 | won | +17 | 799 |
| 01.08.26 | Fluxo – BESTIA | Fluxo | 1.74 | 20 | lost | -20 | 782 |
| 01.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – megoshort | CYBERSHOKE | 1.55 | 20 | won | +11 | 802 |
| 01.08.26 | los kogutos – NEW VISION | los kogutos | 1.88 | 20 | won | +17 | 791 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | Trouble makers | 1.77 | 19 | won | +15 | 774 |
| 01.08.26 | Betclic – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.62 | 20 | lost | -20 | 759 |
| 01.08.26 | LP – BESTIA | LP | 1.67 | 20 | lost | -20 | 779 |
| 31.07.26 | Spirit Academy – sleepers | sleepers | 1.78 | 18 | lost | -18 | 799 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Vexar | Vexar | 1.86 | 18 | lost | -18 | 816 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-Young Ninjas – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Young Ninjas | 1.79 | 18 | won | +14 | 834 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | HOTU | 1.46 | 18 | lost | -18 | 820 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.79 | 18 | won | +14 | 838 |
| 31.07.26 | INFINITE – SPARTA | INFINITE | 1.67 | 18 | lost | -18 | 824 |
| 31.07.26 | ex-RUBY – Lavked | ex-RUBY | 1.40 | 18 | won | +7 | 842 |
| 30.07.26 | JiJieHao – Entropy | JiJieHao | 1.88 | 18 | won | +16 | 835 |
| 30.07.26 | WW – TDK | TDK | 1.44 | 18 | lost | -18 | 820 |
| 30.07.26 | Butterfly – Atreides | Butterfly | 1.63 | 18 | won | +11 | 838 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.