Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-605u
ROI
-10.5%
win rate
51%
bets
617
drawdown
68.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-13u
period 3top-up-181u
period 2top-up-144u
period 1top-up-267u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 51% | -605 | -10.5% | 68.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 51% | -655 | -10.6% | 74.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 101 | 39% | -1000 | -19.7% | 100% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 51% | -1119 | -10.5% | 126.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 51% | -2240 | -10.1% | 248.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 51% | -3235 | -9.3% | 345.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 617, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 395 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.56 | 10 | won | +6 | 405 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 399 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 391 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 385 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 395 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 387 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 397 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 407 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 417 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 409 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 403 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 395 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 10 | won | +8 | 405 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Omega | 1.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 397 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 407 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 400 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 10 | won | +3 | 392 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 389 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 10 | won | +8 | 399 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 391 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +7 | 384 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 10 | won | +8 | 377 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 10 | won | +4 | 368 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 364 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 374 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 367 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 377 |
| 16.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | Permitta | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 369 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 361 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Bushido Wildcats | 1.32 | 9 | won | +3 | 353 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 10 | lost | -10 | 350 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 9 | won | +6 | 360 |
| 15.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Galorys | Galorys | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 354 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 9 | won | +8 | 363 |
| 15.08.26 | magic – 3DMAX | magic | 1.54 | 9 | won | +5 | 356 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | 9z | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 350 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 360 |
| 15.08.26 | SINQU – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 370 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 9 | won | +5 | 363 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | ENCE | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 358 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 367 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 10 | lost | -10 | 360 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 10 | won | +8 | 370 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.58 | 9 | won | +6 | 362 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | The Last Resort | 1.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 356 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 366 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 10 | won | +8 | 375 |
| 14.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom Academy | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 367 |
| 14.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetBoom | BetBoom | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 359 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 369 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | The Last Resort | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 364 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 373 |
| 12.08.26 | Vitality – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.52 | 10 | lost | -10 | 383 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 10 | lost | -10 | 393 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 403 |
| 12.08.26 | magic – The MongolZ | magic | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 395 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 405 |
| 12.08.26 | DONSTU – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 415 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 10 | won | +6 | 408 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.