Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-440u
ROI
-7.4%
win rate
53%
bets
621
drawdown
50.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-44u
period 3top-up-69u
period 2top-up-79u
period 1top-up-248u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -440 | -7.4% | 50.1% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 621 | 53% | -459 | -7.4% | 52.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -843 | -7.5% | 95.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 70 | 40% | -1000 | -26.9% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -1869 | -7.4% | 205.8% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 621 | 53% | -3054 | -6.8% | 212.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 621, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 560 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 9 | won | +5 | 553 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | OG | 1.77 | 9 | won | +7 | 548 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.84 | 9 | won | +8 | 540 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.79 | 9 | lost | -9 | 533 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | 542 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 551 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 561 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 571 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.66 | 10 | won | +6 | 580 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 574 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 567 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 577 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.78 | 10 | won | +7 | 569 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.77 | 9 | won | +7 | 562 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 554 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 547 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | Vexar | 1.78 | 10 | lost | -10 | 556 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 566 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | MASONIC | 1.73 | 9 | won | +7 | 559 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 9 | won | +8 | 552 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | benched gods | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 544 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | PCIFIC | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 537 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | Enjoy | 1.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 546 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 556 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 9 | won | +6 | 548 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | Vexar | 1.71 | 9 | won | +7 | 542 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 9 | won | +8 | 535 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.46 | 9 | lost | -9 | 528 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Imperial | 1.63 | 9 | won | +6 | 537 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 531 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 524 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 9 | lost | -9 | 517 |
| 15.08.26 | Imperial – BESTIA | Imperial | 1.82 | 9 | won | +8 | 526 |
| 15.08.26 | eternal premium – Revise | Revise | 1.76 | 9 | won | +7 | 519 |
| 15.08.26 | EAC – ex-MANA | EAC | 1.82 | 9 | won | +7 | 512 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 9 | won | +5 | 505 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | 499 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 9 | won | +5 | 508 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 9 | lost | -9 | 503 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.59 | 9 | lost | -9 | 512 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.52 | 9 | lost | -9 | 522 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 531 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 9 | lost | -9 | 540 |
| 14.08.26 | Phantom Academy – Revise | Phantom Academy | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 550 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 559 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – MOUZ NXT | INOX Division | 1.46 | 10 | won | +4 | 569 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – Misa | EAC | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 564 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 557 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 567 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 577 |
| 14.08.26 | TYLOO – Lynn Vision | TYLOO | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 571 |
| 13.08.26 | Yawara – Keyd Stars | Yawara | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 581 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 591 |
| 13.08.26 | Just Players – MOUZ NXT | Just Players | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 586 |
| 12.08.26 | MIBR – Astralis | MIBR | 1.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 596 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 606 |
| 12.08.26 | magic – The MongolZ | magic | 1.70 | 10 | lost | -10 | 598 |
| 12.08.26 | ROUNDS – Subtop De France | ROUNDS | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 608 |
| 11.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 600 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.