Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-3729u
ROI
-14%
win rate
49%
bets
617
drawdown
373.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-929u
period 3top-up-973u
period 2top-up-957u
period 1top-up-869u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | -817 | -14.7% | 82.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 617 | 49% | -896 | -14.5% | 90.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 177 | 47% | -1480 | -19.3% | 145.4% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | -1490 | -14.9% | 149.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | -2834 | -14.9% | 284.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 617 | 49% | -3729 | -14% | 373.3% | Selected |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 617, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.56 | 7 | won | +4 | -2729 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Color | 1.85 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2733 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2725 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 8 | won | +4 | -2717 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2721 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2712 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2702 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2692 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2679 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 12 | won | +9 | -2666 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 12 | won | +8 | -2675 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 11 | won | +8 | -2683 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2691 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 11 | won | +9 | -2679 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2689 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 12 | won | +8 | -2676 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 11 | won | +8 | -2684 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 10 | won | +3 | -2693 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2696 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2684 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 12 | won | +9 | -2671 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.55 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2681 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 12 | won | +10 | -2668 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 12 | won | +5 | -2678 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2683 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 12 | won | +9 | -2670 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2679 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 12 | won | +10 | -2666 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 11 | won | +10 | -2676 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 11 | won | +9 | -2685 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | FORZE Reload | 1.73 | 10 | won | +7 | -2694 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2701 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 10 | won | +7 | -2690 |
| 15.08.26 | Lavked – OG | OG | 1.72 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2697 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | Aurora | 1.80 | 11 | won | +8 | -2685 |
| 15.08.26 | magic – 3DMAX | magic | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | -2694 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | 9z | 1.73 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2699 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | Fire Flux | 1.79 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2688 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 14 | lost | -14 | -2676 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.59 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2662 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | ENCE | 1.68 | 17 | lost | -17 | -2647 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Bebop | 1.88 | 19 | lost | -19 | -2630 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 21 | lost | -21 | -2611 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 19 | won | +16 | -2590 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.58 | 18 | won | +11 | -2606 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | The Last Resort | 1.71 | 20 | lost | -20 | -2617 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 19 | won | +16 | -2596 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 21 | lost | -21 | -2613 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Lavked | SINQU | 1.69 | 23 | lost | -23 | -2592 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.54 | 22 | won | +12 | -2569 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Falcons | 1.54 | 21 | won | +11 | -2580 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | The Last Resort | 1.77 | 23 | lost | -23 | -2592 |
| 13.08.26 | Just Players – MOUZ NXT | Just Players | 1.59 | 26 | lost | -26 | -2569 |
| 12.08.26 | Vitality – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.52 | 29 | lost | -29 | -2543 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 32 | lost | -32 | -2514 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | Falcons | 1.77 | 29 | won | +23 | -2483 |
| 12.08.26 | magic – The MongolZ | magic | 1.73 | 33 | lost | -33 | -2505 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 36 | lost | -36 | -2472 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 35 | won | +16 | -2436 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 33 | won | +20 | -2452 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.