Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-815u
ROI
-7.4%
win rate
52%
bets
618
drawdown
85.4%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
2% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-206u
period 3top-up-562u
period 2top-up-246u
period 1profit withdrawn+199u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -463 | -8% | 52.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 52% | -531 | -8.6% | 58.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -815 | -7.4% | 85.4% | Selected |
| Martingale | 582 | 52% | -969 | -5.6% | 98% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -1473 | -6.3% | 128.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -2076 | -5.6% | 149.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 16 | lost | -16 | 185 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 17 | lost | -17 | 201 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 17 | lost | -17 | 217 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 17 | won | +11 | 234 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 16 | won | +9 | 223 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 16 | won | +13 | 214 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 17 | lost | -17 | 201 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 17 | lost | -17 | 218 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 17 | lost | -17 | 234 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 18 | lost | -18 | 252 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 18 | lost | -18 | 269 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.86 | 18 | lost | -18 | 287 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 18 | won | +14 | 306 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 18 | won | +14 | 291 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 18 | lost | -18 | 277 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 18 | won | +13 | 295 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 18 | won | +5 | 283 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 17 | won | +15 | 278 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 17 | won | +14 | 263 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 17 | won | +12 | 249 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 17 | lost | -17 | 237 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 17 | won | +15 | 254 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 17 | won | +9 | 240 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 17 | won | +7 | 231 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 16 | won | +10 | 224 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | Vexar | 1.71 | 16 | won | +12 | 213 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 16 | won | +7 | 202 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 16 | lost | -16 | 195 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 17 | lost | -17 | 211 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 17 | won | +12 | 228 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 17 | lost | -17 | 215 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Lynn Vision | 1.84 | 17 | lost | -17 | 232 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.58 | 17 | won | +10 | 249 |
| 15.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Galorys | Galorys | 1.85 | 17 | lost | -17 | 240 |
| 15.08.26 | BAKS – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.88 | 17 | won | +15 | 257 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 17 | won | +10 | 242 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – SAW Youngsters | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.69 | 17 | lost | -17 | 232 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 18 | lost | -18 | 249 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 18 | lost | -18 | 267 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 18 | lost | -18 | 285 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 19 | lost | -19 | 303 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 19 | lost | -19 | 321 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 19 | lost | -19 | 340 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 19 | won | +16 | 360 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 19 | lost | -19 | 344 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 20 | lost | -20 | 363 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 20 | lost | -20 | 383 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 21 | lost | -21 | 403 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – Privateer | OG | 1.86 | 20 | won | +17 | 424 |
| 14.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.73 | 21 | lost | -21 | 406 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 20 | won | +15 | 427 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora – M80 | Aurora | 1.68 | 20 | won | +14 | 412 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 21 | lost | -21 | 398 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 20 | won | +15 | 419 |
| 12.08.26 | Natus Vincere – 3DMAX | Natus Vincere | 1.62 | 20 | won | +12 | 404 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | BetBoom | 1.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | 391 |
| 12.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SAW Youngsters | ex-RUSTEC | 1.63 | 20 | won | +13 | 412 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 21 | lost | -21 | 399 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 20 | won | +10 | 419 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 20 | won | +12 | 410 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.