Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-1473u
ROI
-6.3%
win rate
52%
bets
618
drawdown
128.4%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-480u
period 3top-up-886u
period 2top-up-551u
period 1profit withdrawn+444u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -463 | -8% | 52.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 52% | -531 | -8.6% | 58.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -815 | -7.4% | 85.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 582 | 52% | -969 | -5.6% | 98% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -1473 | -6.3% | 128.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 52% | -2076 | -5.6% | 149.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 27 | lost | -27 | -473 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 29 | lost | -29 | -445 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 30 | lost | -30 | -416 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 29 | won | +20 | -386 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 29 | won | +16 | -406 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 27 | won | +22 | -422 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | EAC | 1.78 | 29 | lost | -29 | -444 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 30 | lost | -30 | -415 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 32 | lost | -32 | -384 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 34 | lost | -34 | -352 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 35 | lost | -35 | -319 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.86 | 37 | lost | -37 | -283 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 36 | won | +28 | -246 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 35 | won | +28 | -274 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 36 | lost | -36 | -302 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 35 | won | +25 | -265 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 35 | won | +10 | -290 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 33 | won | +29 | -300 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 32 | won | +26 | -329 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 31 | won | +21 | -354 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 32 | lost | -32 | -376 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 31 | won | +27 | -343 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | ENCE | 1.53 | 30 | won | +16 | -370 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 30 | won | +13 | -386 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 29 | won | +18 | -399 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | Vexar | 1.71 | 28 | won | +20 | -417 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | ex-RUSTEC | 1.44 | 27 | won | +12 | -437 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 29 | lost | -29 | -449 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 30 | lost | -30 | -420 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 29 | won | +22 | -390 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 31 | lost | -31 | -412 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Lynn Vision | 1.84 | 32 | lost | -32 | -381 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.58 | 31 | won | +18 | -349 |
| 15.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Galorys | Galorys | 1.85 | 33 | lost | -33 | -367 |
| 15.08.26 | BAKS – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.88 | 32 | won | +28 | -334 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 31 | won | +18 | -362 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – SAW Youngsters | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.69 | 32 | lost | -32 | -380 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | MOUZ NXT | 1.80 | 34 | lost | -34 | -348 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 36 | lost | -36 | -314 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | Arch | 1.84 | 38 | lost | -38 | -278 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 40 | lost | -40 | -241 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 42 | lost | -42 | -201 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 44 | lost | -44 | -159 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 42 | won | +36 | -115 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | K27 | 1.79 | 44 | lost | -44 | -151 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 47 | lost | -47 | -107 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | benched gods | 1.72 | 49 | lost | -49 | -60 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – BAKS | Fire Flux | 1.77 | 52 | lost | -52 | -11 |
| 14.08.26 | OG – Privateer | OG | 1.86 | 50 | won | +43 | 41 |
| 14.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.73 | 52 | lost | -52 | -2 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 50 | won | +37 | 50 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora – M80 | Aurora | 1.68 | 49 | won | +33 | 13 |
| 13.08.26 | ex-MANA – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 1.84 | 51 | lost | -51 | -20 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 49 | won | +37 | 31 |
| 12.08.26 | Natus Vincere – 3DMAX | Natus Vincere | 1.62 | 48 | won | +30 | -6 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | BetBoom | 1.80 | 50 | lost | -50 | -36 |
| 12.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – SAW Youngsters | ex-RUSTEC | 1.63 | 49 | won | +31 | 14 |
| 12.08.26 | FUT – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.77 | 51 | lost | -51 | -16 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 50 | won | +24 | 35 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Isurus | 1.61 | 49 | won | +30 | 11 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.