Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
-3314u
ROI
-8.8%
win rate
52%
bets
1242
drawdown
322.1%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-857u
period 3top-up-747u
period 2top-up-850u
period 1top-up-860u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1242 | 52% | -1064 | -9.7% | 106.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1242 | 52% | -1194 | -9.6% | 120% | Select |
| Martingale | 357 | 48% | -1759 | -13.8% | 154.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1242 | 52% | -1890 | -9.6% | 188.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1242 | 52% | -3314 | -8.8% | 322.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1242 | 52% | -3934 | -6.7% | 236.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1242, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 7 | won | +5 | -2314 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2320 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.56 | 7 | won | +4 | -2313 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Color | 1.85 | 7 | lost | -7 | -2317 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2309 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2301 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | Falcons | 1.52 | 8 | won | +4 | -2293 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.55 | 8 | won | +4 | -2297 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.77 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2302 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2293 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2285 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2276 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2266 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | -2256 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2263 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | -2253 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | -2260 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2267 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | -2257 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 9 | won | +8 | -2262 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2270 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2260 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2249 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.88 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2238 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2227 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.71 | 12 | won | +8 | -2215 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 11 | won | +9 | -2223 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Bushido Wildcats | 1.29 | 11 | won | +3 | -2232 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 11 | won | +4 | -2235 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 11 | lost | -11 | -2239 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2228 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 12 | won | +9 | -2215 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.55 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2225 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 12 | won | +10 | -2213 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | Enjoy | 1.46 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2223 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Bushido Wildcats | 1.43 | 12 | won | +5 | -2210 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 12 | won | +5 | -2215 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2220 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | ENCE | 1.82 | 12 | won | +10 | -2208 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 12 | won | +9 | -2218 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2226 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 12 | won | +10 | -2214 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2224 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2211 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.68 | 13 | won | +8 | -2198 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.81 | 13 | lost | -13 | -2207 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 13 | won | +11 | -2194 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | UNiTY | 1.80 | 12 | won | +10 | -2204 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | mellren | 1.74 | 12 | won | +9 | -2214 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | 9z | 1.76 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2223 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | EAC | 1.81 | 12 | won | +10 | -2210 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | ex-RUSTEC | 1.47 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2220 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | FORZE Reload | 1.73 | 12 | won | +9 | -2207 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Bushido Wildcats | 1.32 | 12 | won | +4 | -2216 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2220 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.55 | 12 | won | +7 | -2207 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 12 | won | +8 | -2214 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 11 | won | +8 | -2222 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | Spirit | 1.73 | 11 | won | +8 | -2229 |
| 15.08.26 | Lavked – OG | OG | 1.72 | 12 | lost | -12 | -2237 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.