Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+309u
ROI
+1.1%
win rate
49%
bets
249
drawdown
89.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-820u
period 3profit withdrawn+1060u
period 2profit withdrawn+689u
period 1top-up-620u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | +309 | +1.1% | 89.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | +113 | +0.8% | 58.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | +10 | +0.2% | 29.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 49% | -2 | -0.1% | 17.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 49% | -10 | -0.4% | 18.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 228 | 50% | -161 | -1.6% | 60.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Metizport | 1.92 | 17 | won | +15 | 1309 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 18 | lost | -18 | 1294 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1312 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 18 | won | +25 | 1332 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | Atreides | 2.06 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1307 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 22 | lost | -22 | 1327 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 24 | lost | -24 | 1349 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | JiJieHao | 1.98 | 27 | lost | -27 | 1373 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | OG | 2.00 | 25 | won | +25 | 1401 |
| 15.08.26 | Bebop – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.89 | 23 | won | +20 | 1376 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | Mai Tai | 2.34 | 25 | lost | -25 | 1356 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | Vitality | 1.92 | 28 | lost | -28 | 1381 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Enjoy | MOUZ NXT | 2.44 | 31 | lost | -31 | 1409 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Astralis | 2.44 | 35 | lost | -35 | 1440 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.02 | 31 | won | +32 | 1475 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | K27 | 2.03 | 35 | lost | -35 | 1443 |
| 10.08.26 | Rooster – Abyssal | Abyssal | 2.35 | 31 | won | +41 | 1478 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | HEROIC | 2.44 | 34 | lost | -34 | 1436 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | Game Point | 2.23 | 38 | lost | -38 | 1471 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | Anteiku | 1.89 | 42 | lost | -42 | 1509 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | INFINITE | 1.96 | 47 | lost | -47 | 1551 |
| 09.08.26 | Inner Circle – Iberian Soul | Iberian Soul | 2.67 | 52 | lost | -52 | 1598 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | 6666 | 2.26 | 58 | lost | -58 | 1650 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | eSuba | 2.29 | 64 | lost | -64 | 1708 |
| 08.08.26 | REVENIX – levelONE | REVENIX | 1.90 | 72 | lost | -72 | 1772 |
| 07.08.26 | Orion Wanderers – Sashi | Orion Wanderers | 2.25 | 79 | lost | -79 | 1844 |
| 07.08.26 | z to forward – DUSTY | z to forward | 1.90 | 88 | lost | -88 | 1923 |
| 07.08.26 | 1win – Citron | Citron | 2.19 | 98 | lost | -98 | 2011 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | MAYBE | 2.02 | 109 | lost | -109 | 2110 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | BET-M | 2.16 | 98 | won | +113 | 2219 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Abyssal | 2.21 | 109 | lost | -109 | 2105 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.96 | 121 | lost | -121 | 2214 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | ex-MANA | 2.46 | 134 | lost | -134 | 2335 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | Eternal Fire | 2.14 | 149 | lost | -149 | 2469 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Bushido Wildcats | 1.92 | 136 | won | +126 | 2617 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.43 | 119 | won | +171 | 2492 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.64 | 133 | lost | -133 | 2321 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | los kogutos | 2.16 | 147 | lost | -147 | 2454 |
| 03.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 3.01 | 164 | lost | -164 | 2601 |
| 03.08.26 | Isurus – ODDIK Academy | ODDIK Academy | 2.23 | 182 | lost | -182 | 2764 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | NRG | 1.97 | 166 | won | +160 | 2946 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | NRG | 2.14 | 149 | won | +170 | 2786 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.92 | 136 | won | +125 | 2616 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.34 | 151 | lost | -151 | 2491 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | DEPO | 1.93 | 139 | won | +129 | 2643 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 2.16 | 124 | won | +144 | 2514 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | atputies | 2.45 | 138 | lost | -138 | 2369 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | SINNERS | 3.60 | 109 | won | +285 | 2507 |
| 01.08.26 | THE UNIT – Omega | THE UNIT | 2.07 | 122 | lost | -122 | 2223 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | DONSTU | 2.06 | 110 | won | +116 | 2344 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | DEPO | 2.00 | 100 | won | +100 | 2228 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | Banda Chuya | 2.19 | 229 | lost | -229 | 2129 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.90 | 254 | lost | -254 | 2357 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | K27 | 2.22 | 283 | lost | -283 | 2612 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.67 | 242 | won | +404 | 2894 |
| 31.07.26 | EAC – G2 Ares | EAC | 1.91 | 269 | lost | -269 | 2491 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.92 | 247 | won | +226 | 2760 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | 3DMAX | 2.42 | 274 | lost | -274 | 2534 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | KUUSAMO | 2.02 | 248 | won | +254 | 2808 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.98 | 276 | lost | -276 | 2553 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.