Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-543u
ROI
-10.7%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
58.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-49u
period 6top-up-98u
period 5top-up-93u
period 4top-up-18u
period 3top-up-83u
period 2top-up-197u
period 1top-up-4u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -543 | -10.7% | 58.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 42% | -549 | -10.1% | 61.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 46 | 46% | -908 | -50.2% | 92.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -1070 | -11.2% | 110.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -2514 | -12.9% | 242.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -4335 | -15.4% | 410.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 457 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 467 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 476 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Inner Circle | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 486 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 496 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 10 | won | +21 | 506 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Just Players | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 485 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 495 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 10 | lost | -10 | 486 |
| 10.10.26 | Desi Boyz – EMPIRE | EMPIRE | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 496 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Isurus | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 487 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.47 | 10 | won | +14 | 497 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 482 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 10 | won | +18 | 492 |
| 09.10.26 | regain – Iowa Stormboar | Iowa Stormboar | 1.97 | 10 | won | +9 | 474 |
| 08.10.26 | SINNERS – Black Phoenix | SINNERS | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 465 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 10 | won | +10 | 474 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Azuolas | 2.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 464 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Kaleido | 2.20 | 10 | won | +11 | 474 |
| 08.10.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 462 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 472 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 463 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | SAW | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 473 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 10 | won | +13 | 483 |
| 07.10.26 | BERG – Leo | BERG | 3.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 469 |
| 07.10.26 | Banda Chuya – HYPERSPIRIT | Banda Chuya | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 479 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 489 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 10 | won | +14 | 499 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.32 | 10 | lost | -10 | 485 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 495 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 482 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 10 | won | +14 | 492 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 10 | lost | -10 | 479 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 488 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 10 | lost | -10 | 477 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 487 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | BBL | 2.09 | 10 | won | +11 | 497 |
| 02.10.26 | Eternal Fire – Anteiku | Anteiku | 3.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 486 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 496 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 506 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – SportsBetExpert | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.56 | 10 | won | +16 | 516 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | benched gods | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 501 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 511 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 521 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 512 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 522 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 10 | won | +17 | 532 |
| 01.10.26 | Yawara – BORRACHEIROS | Yawara | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 515 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 506 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 496 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | Leo | 2.15 | 9 | lost | -9 | 506 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 9 | won | +13 | 515 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 9 | won | +11 | 503 |
| 29.09.26 | Bushido Wildcats – VISION | VISION | 2.39 | 9 | won | +12 | 492 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 9 | won | +8 | 480 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 9 | lost | -9 | 472 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 9 | lost | -9 | 481 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 9 | won | +15 | 489 |
| 27.09.26 | Fluxo – SAW | SAW | 2.83 | 9 | won | +16 | 474 |
| 27.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Noir Verse | KUUSAMO | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 458 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.