Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-444u
ROI
-8.7%
win rate
43%
bets
543
drawdown
49.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+12u
period 6top-up-282u
period 5profit withdrawn+8u
period 4top-up-40u
period 3profit withdrawn+11u
period 2top-up-147u
period 1top-up-4u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -444 | -8.7% | 49.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 43% | -475 | -8.7% | 52.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -835 | -8.6% | 90.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 47% | -887 | -52.4% | 90.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -1812 | -8.7% | 182.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -3194 | -9.6% | 283.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 556 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 567 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 577 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Inner Circle | 1.99 | 11 | lost | -11 | 587 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 11 | lost | -11 | 598 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 10 | won | +22 | 609 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Just Players | 1.97 | 11 | lost | -11 | 586 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Misa | 2.55 | 11 | lost | -11 | 597 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 11 | lost | -11 | 608 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | KZG | 2.38 | 11 | lost | -11 | 618 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | Grêmio | 1.98 | 11 | lost | -11 | 629 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.47 | 11 | won | +16 | 640 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 11 | won | +20 | 624 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 10 | won | +22 | 604 |
| 09.10.26 | Club 333 – OverKnight | OverKnight | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 583 |
| 08.10.26 | MOUZ NXT – HYPERSPIRIT | MOUZ NXT | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 593 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 10 | won | +11 | 583 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | Nexus | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 572 |
| 08.10.26 | Rare Atom – Just Swing | Just Swing | 2.37 | 10 | won | +14 | 563 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | THE UNIT | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 549 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | ex-Keyd Stars | 2.04 | 10 | won | +10 | 559 |
| 07.10.26 | SAW – RBLS | RBLS | 2.25 | 10 | won | +12 | 548 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | SAW | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 536 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 10 | won | +14 | 546 |
| 07.10.26 | Just Players – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.40 | 10 | lost | -10 | 532 |
| 07.10.26 | Nas – Kaleido | Kaleido | 1.99 | 10 | won | +10 | 542 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 532 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 10 | won | +14 | 542 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 529 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 539 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 526 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 10 | won | +14 | 536 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 10 | lost | -10 | 522 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 532 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 10 | lost | -10 | 521 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 531 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 2.26 | 10 | lost | -10 | 541 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | Glitch | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 551 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 561 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 10 | won | +13 | 571 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Sashi | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 559 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 569 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 10 | won | +20 | 579 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 559 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 549 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 559 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 10 | won | +17 | 570 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | Nemesis | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 553 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 543 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 534 |
| 30.09.26 | PRIVATE – Nuclear TigeRES | PRIVATE | 2.59 | 7 | lost | -7 | 544 |
| 29.09.26 | Privateer – eternal premium | Privateer | 2.38 | 7 | lost | -7 | 551 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 7 | won | +9 | 559 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 7 | lost | -7 | 550 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 7 | won | +9 | 557 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 7 | lost | -7 | 548 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 7 | lost | -7 | 556 |
| 28.09.26 | Turma do Pagode – Yawara | Yawara | 1.91 | 7 | lost | -7 | 563 |
| 27.09.26 | Nemiga – Color | Color | 2.30 | 8 | lost | -8 | 570 |
| 27.09.26 | INFINITE – RBLS | INFINITE | 1.95 | 7 | won | +7 | 578 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.