Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+492u
ROI
+1.8%
win rate
51%
bets
249
drawdown
60.5%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-737u
period 3profit withdrawn+150u
period 2profit withdrawn+977u
period 1profit withdrawn+102u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +492 | +1.8% | 60.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +395 | +2.9% | 38.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +177 | +3.4% | 23.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 249 | 51% | +137 | +1.4% | 60.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 51% | +91 | +3.7% | 14.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +90 | +3.6% | 14.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.99 | 24 | won | +24 | 1492 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 27 | lost | -27 | 1469 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 30 | lost | -30 | 1495 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | Fortress | 2.03 | 33 | lost | -33 | 1525 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | Atreides | 2.06 | 37 | lost | -37 | 1558 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 41 | lost | -41 | 1594 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 45 | lost | -45 | 1635 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | JiJieHao | 1.98 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1680 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 44 | won | +57 | 1730 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.07 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1673 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | Mai Tai | 2.34 | 55 | lost | -55 | 1722 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | EAC | 2.09 | 49 | won | +54 | 1777 |
| 14.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetBoom | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.14 | 44 | won | +50 | 1723 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Astralis | 2.44 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1673 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.01 | 45 | won | +45 | 1722 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | K27 | 2.03 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1677 |
| 10.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.13 | 55 | lost | -55 | 1726 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | HEROIC | 2.44 | 61 | lost | -61 | 1782 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | Game Point | 2.23 | 68 | lost | -68 | 1843 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | Anteiku | 1.89 | 76 | lost | -76 | 1911 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | INFINITE | 1.96 | 84 | lost | -84 | 1987 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 77 | won | +76 | 2071 |
| 08.08.26 | ABT – 9INE | 9INE | 1.92 | 70 | won | +65 | 1995 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | eSuba | 2.29 | 78 | lost | -78 | 1931 |
| 08.08.26 | 100 Thieves – NADE | NADE | 2.05 | 87 | lost | -87 | 2009 |
| 07.08.26 | Virtus.pro – Sangal | Sangal | 2.62 | 96 | lost | -96 | 2095 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | Kreazion | 1.90 | 88 | won | +79 | 2192 |
| 07.08.26 | BIG – z to forward | z to forward | 1.89 | 98 | lost | -98 | 2112 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | MAYBE | 2.02 | 109 | lost | -109 | 2210 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | BET-M | 2.16 | 98 | won | +113 | 2319 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Abyssal | 2.21 | 109 | lost | -109 | 2206 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.96 | 121 | lost | -121 | 2315 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | ex-MANA | 2.46 | 134 | lost | -134 | 2435 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | Eternal Fire | 2.14 | 149 | lost | -149 | 2569 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Bushido Wildcats | 1.92 | 136 | won | +126 | 2718 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.43 | 119 | won | +171 | 2592 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.64 | 133 | lost | -133 | 2422 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | los kogutos | 2.16 | 147 | lost | -147 | 2554 |
| 03.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.43 | 164 | lost | -164 | 2702 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | ARCRED | 2.05 | 182 | lost | -182 | 2865 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | NRG | 1.97 | 166 | won | +160 | 3047 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | NRG | 2.14 | 149 | won | +170 | 2886 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.92 | 136 | won | +125 | 2717 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.90 | 151 | lost | -151 | 2592 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | DEPO | 1.93 | 139 | won | +129 | 2743 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 2.16 | 124 | won | +144 | 2614 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | atputies | 2.45 | 138 | lost | -138 | 2470 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | SINNERS | 3.60 | 109 | won | +285 | 2608 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | ZWAW | 2.02 | 122 | lost | -122 | 2323 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | DONSTU | 2.06 | 110 | won | +116 | 2445 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | DEPO | 2.00 | 100 | won | +100 | 2329 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | Banda Chuya | 2.19 | 128 | lost | -128 | 2229 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.90 | 142 | lost | -142 | 2357 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | K27 | 2.22 | 158 | lost | -158 | 2499 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.67 | 135 | won | +225 | 2657 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | XCLAN | 2.54 | 150 | lost | -150 | 2431 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.92 | 138 | won | +126 | 2582 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | 3DMAX | 2.42 | 153 | lost | -153 | 2456 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | KUUSAMO | 2.02 | 139 | won | +142 | 2609 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.98 | 154 | lost | -154 | 2467 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.