Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-457u
ROI
-8.9%
win rate
42%
bets
544
drawdown
58%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+46u
period 6top-up-136u
period 5profit withdrawn+35u
period 4top-up-163u
period 3top-up-33u
period 2top-up-129u
period 1top-up-77u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -457 | -8.9% | 58% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 544 | 42% | -464 | -8.5% | 59.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -897 | -9.3% | 113.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 40% | -997 | -45.5% | 99.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -2094 | -10.2% | 260.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -3691 | -11.4% | 441.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 544, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 11 | lost | -11 | 543 |
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | 6666 | 2.41 | 10 | won | +15 | 554 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 11 | lost | -11 | 539 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 11 | lost | -11 | 549 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Inner Circle | 1.99 | 11 | lost | -11 | 560 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 11 | lost | -11 | 571 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 11 | won | +22 | 582 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 10 | won | +15 | 559 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Misa | 2.55 | 11 | lost | -11 | 544 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.10 | 10 | won | +11 | 555 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | DETONATE | 2.01 | 10 | won | +10 | 543 |
| 10.10.26 | Galorys – Turma do Pagode | Galorys | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 533 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Acend | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 523 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 10 | won | +21 | 534 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 10 | won | +19 | 513 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Villainous | 2.20 | 10 | won | +12 | 494 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | FaZe | 2.58 | 10 | won | +15 | 482 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 10 | won | +10 | 467 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Azuolas | 2.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 456 |
| 08.10.26 | BERG – mellren | BERG | 3.32 | 10 | lost | -10 | 466 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | Privateer | 2.81 | 10 | won | +17 | 476 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | ex-Keyd Stars | 2.04 | 10 | won | +10 | 458 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 449 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.40 | 10 | lost | -10 | 458 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 10 | won | +13 | 468 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Privateer | 3.36 | 9 | won | +22 | 454 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.29 | 9 | won | +12 | 432 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.11 | 9 | lost | -9 | 420 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 9 | lost | -9 | 430 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 439 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 9 | won | +12 | 449 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 437 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 9 | won | +13 | 446 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 9 | lost | -9 | 433 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 442 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 10 | lost | -10 | 452 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 462 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 2.26 | 10 | lost | -10 | 471 |
| 02.10.26 | BC.Game – Sashi | Sashi | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 481 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 491 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 501 |
| 02.10.26 | HAVU – BBL | HAVU | 2.48 | 10 | lost | -10 | 511 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | benched gods | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 522 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 10 | won | +20 | 532 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 511 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 502 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 512 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 10 | won | +17 | 522 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | Nemesis | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 505 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 496 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 487 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | Leo | 2.15 | 9 | lost | -9 | 497 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 9 | won | +12 | 506 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 9 | won | +11 | 494 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | PAQT | 2.36 | 8 | won | +11 | 483 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 8 | won | +10 | 472 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | 462 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 8 | lost | -8 | 470 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 8 | won | +15 | 478 |
| 27.09.26 | Fluxo – SAW | SAW | 2.83 | 8 | won | +15 | 464 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.