Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-508u
ROI
-9.9%
win rate
42%
bets
545
drawdown
50.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-111u
period 6top-up-189u
period 5profit withdrawn+106u
period 4top-up-64u
period 3top-up-10u
period 2top-up-199u
period 1top-up-40u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -508 | -9.9% | 50.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 545 | 42% | -535 | -9.8% | 53.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 51 | 39% | -922 | -46.7% | 93.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -964 | -9.9% | 96.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -2057 | -9.6% | 205.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 545 | 42% | -3323 | -9% | 332.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 545, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | BET-M – FORZE Reload | BET-M | 2.13 | 9 | lost | -9 | 492 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | 501 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | 510 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 9 | lost | -9 | 519 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 9 | lost | -9 | 528 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Inner Circle | 1.99 | 9 | lost | -9 | 538 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 547 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 9 | won | +20 | 556 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Just Players | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 537 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 9 | won | +9 | 546 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Fortress | 2.45 | 9 | lost | -9 | 538 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | KZG | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 547 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | Grêmio | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 557 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Acend | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 566 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 10 | won | +20 | 576 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 556 |
| 09.10.26 | Zomblers – Desi Boyz | Zomblers | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 566 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | FaZe | 2.58 | 9 | won | +15 | 557 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 9 | won | +10 | 542 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | megoshort | 2.56 | 9 | lost | -9 | 532 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Lynn Vision | 1.91 | 9 | won | +8 | 542 |
| 08.10.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 533 |
| 08.10.26 | Galorys – Grêmio | Grêmio | 2.94 | 9 | won | +18 | 543 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.81 | 9 | won | +16 | 525 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 508 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 9 | won | +13 | 518 |
| 07.10.26 | Ryvex – mellren | Ryvex | 2.54 | 9 | lost | -9 | 505 |
| 07.10.26 | Leo – Ryvex | Ryvex | 2.36 | 9 | lost | -9 | 514 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.11 | 9 | lost | -9 | 523 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 9 | won | +13 | 533 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 9 | lost | -9 | 520 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 9 | won | +12 | 529 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 517 |
| 06.10.26 | G2 – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.48 | 9 | won | +13 | 527 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 9 | lost | -9 | 513 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 9 | won | +10 | 522 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 9 | lost | -9 | 512 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 9 | lost | -9 | 521 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 2.26 | 9 | lost | -9 | 530 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | Glitch | 2.15 | 9 | lost | -9 | 540 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 549 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 559 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Sashi | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 568 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 578 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 588 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 598 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 589 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 599 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 10 | won | +17 | 609 |
| 01.10.26 | Lavked – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 592 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 602 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 593 |
| 30.09.26 | PRIVATE – Nuclear TigeRES | PRIVATE | 2.59 | 8 | lost | -8 | 603 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | MAYBE | 2.40 | 8 | won | +11 | 611 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 8 | won | +10 | 599 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 8 | lost | -8 | 590 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 8 | won | +10 | 598 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 8 | lost | -8 | 588 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | 596 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 8 | won | +14 | 604 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.