Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+1624u
ROI
+19.6%
win rate
47%
bets
249
drawdown
27.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+434u
period 3profit withdrawn+479u
period 2profit withdrawn+377u
period 1profit withdrawn+334u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 249 | 47% | +1624 | +19.6% | 27.8% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 47% | -38 | -1.5% | 22.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -46 | -1.9% | 22.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -105 | -2.2% | 39.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -355 | -3.2% | 75.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -933 | -4.9% | 109.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 10 | won | +18 | 2624 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 2607 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 2597 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | HAVU | 2.66 | 80 | won | +133 | 2584 |
| 17.08.26 | paiN Academy – QUINTESSÊNCIA | paiN Academy | 2.16 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2451 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.21 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2491 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2511 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 2521 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | GUESS | 1.94 | 20 | won | +19 | 2512 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.93 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2493 |
| 14.08.26 | FUT – MOUZ | FUT | 2.30 | 10 | won | +13 | 2503 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Misa | 2.55 | 20 | won | +31 | 2490 |
| 14.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – ALKA | Pugdesonesto | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2459 |
| 13.08.26 | BERG – Endless Journey | BERG | 2.16 | 20 | won | +23 | 2469 |
| 12.08.26 | 9z – paiN | paiN | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2446 |
| 12.08.26 | Spirit – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 2.23 | 10 | won | +12 | 2456 |
| 09.08.26 | HOTU – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 2.44 | 320 | won | +462 | 2443 |
| 09.08.26 | 1win – Liquid | Liquid | 1.95 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1981 |
| 09.08.26 | 9INE – HOTU | 9INE | 2.50 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2141 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | Fluxo | 2.13 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2221 |
| 08.08.26 | ALKA – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 2.03 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2261 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | 6666 | 2.26 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2281 |
| 08.08.26 | Procyon – ODDIK Academy | Procyon | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 2291 |
| 08.08.26 | EYEBALLERS – Phantom | EYEBALLERS | 2.33 | 20 | won | +27 | 2280 |
| 08.08.26 | Dhala – Prestige | Dhala | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2253 |
| 07.08.26 | BRUTE – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.52 | 320 | won | +485 | 2263 |
| 07.08.26 | Walczaki – Black Phoenix | Walczaki | 2.07 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1778 |
| 07.08.26 | INFINITE – Aogiri | Aogiri | 2.05 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1938 |
| 06.08.26 | Sashi – Nuclear TigeRES | Sashi | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2018 |
| 06.08.26 | BESTIA – Grêmio | Grêmio | 2.32 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2058 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | ex-RUSTEC | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2078 |
| 04.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ALKA | ALKA | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 2088 |
| 04.08.26 | Just Players – Enjoy | Just Players | 2.09 | 20 | won | +22 | 2079 |
| 04.08.26 | Liquid – 9INE | 9INE | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2057 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 1.96 | 447 | won | +429 | 2067 |
| 04.08.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | G2 Ares | 1.96 | 320 | lost | -320 | 1638 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | ex-GUARA | 1.90 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1958 |
| 03.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.43 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2118 |
| 03.08.26 | Leo – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.49 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2198 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Metizport | Metizport | 2.26 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2238 |
| 02.08.26 | Fortress – los kogutos | Fortress | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2258 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.76 | 40 | won | +71 | 2268 |
| 02.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – WBT | MOUZ NXT | 2.40 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2197 |
| 02.08.26 | Omega – DEPO | DEPO | 2.17 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2217 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Just Players | Black Phoenix | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 2227 |
| 01.08.26 | The Last Resort – Betclic | Betclic | 2.21 | 80 | won | +97 | 2217 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | ZWAW | 2.02 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2120 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – atputies | atputies | 2.01 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2160 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2180 |
| 31.07.26 | Fluxo – Imperial | Fluxo | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 2190 |
| 31.07.26 | CYBERSHOKE – STATE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.04 | 20 | won | +21 | 2181 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – Trainwrecks | ROUNDS | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2160 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.67 | 40 | won | +67 | 2170 |
| 31.07.26 | FaZe – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 1.98 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2104 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | HAVU | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2124 |
| 31.07.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 2.36 | 10 | won | +14 | 2134 |
| 31.07.26 | regain – Chicken Coop | regain | 2.22 | 40 | won | +49 | 2120 |
| 30.07.26 | Liquid – Spirit | Liquid | 2.66 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2071 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2091 |
| 30.07.26 | NRG – Marsborne | NRG | 2.09 | 20 | won | +22 | 2101 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.