Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-496u
ROI
-9.7%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
62.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+107u
period 6top-up-226u
period 5profit withdrawn+10u
period 4top-up-94u
period 3top-up-69u
period 2top-up-164u
period 1top-up-60u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -496 | -9.7% | 62.2% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 42% | -524 | -9.6% | 65.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 51 | 33% | -927 | -33.3% | 93.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -937 | -9.7% | 118.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -1974 | -9.7% | 255.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -3062 | -9.7% | 408.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Gothic – Lavked | Lavked | 2.05 | 11 | won | +12 | 504 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 11 | lost | -11 | 493 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 11 | lost | -11 | 504 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 11 | lost | -11 | 515 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | BORRACHEIROS | 2.09 | 11 | lost | -11 | 526 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 11 | won | +24 | 538 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Just Players | 1.97 | 11 | lost | -11 | 514 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 11 | won | +10 | 525 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.10 | 11 | won | +12 | 515 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | DETONATE | 2.01 | 11 | won | +11 | 503 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.27 | 11 | won | +14 | 492 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | 6666 | 2.07 | 11 | won | +11 | 478 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 10 | won | +20 | 467 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 11 | lost | -11 | 447 |
| 09.10.26 | New Legends – Wanted Goons | Wanted Goons | 2.35 | 10 | won | +14 | 457 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Privateer | 3.78 | 11 | lost | -11 | 443 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 10 | won | +11 | 454 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | megoshort | 2.56 | 11 | lost | -11 | 443 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Kaleido | 2.20 | 10 | won | +13 | 453 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | Privateer | 2.81 | 10 | won | +19 | 441 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 422 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 413 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | SAW | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 423 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 10 | won | +14 | 434 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Privateer | 3.36 | 10 | won | +24 | 419 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 396 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 383 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 393 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 403 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 413 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 400 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 10 | won | +14 | 410 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 10 | lost | -10 | 396 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 406 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 10 | lost | -10 | 395 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 405 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | BBL | 2.09 | 10 | won | +11 | 415 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Prestige | Prestige | 2.64 | 10 | lost | -10 | 404 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | 414 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 10 | won | +13 | 425 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Sashi | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 412 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 422 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 10 | won | +20 | 433 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 412 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 403 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 413 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 10 | won | +17 | 423 |
| 01.10.26 | Yawara – BORRACHEIROS | Yawara | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 406 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 397 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 388 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | Leo | 2.15 | 8 | lost | -8 | 398 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | MAYBE | 2.40 | 8 | won | +11 | 405 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 8 | won | +9 | 395 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 8 | lost | -8 | 385 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 8 | won | +7 | 393 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 8 | lost | -8 | 386 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | 394 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 8 | won | +14 | 401 |
| 27.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Noir Verse | KUUSAMO | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | 388 |
| 27.09.26 | Nemiga – Color | Color | 2.30 | 8 | lost | -8 | 396 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.