Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-2444u
ROI
-12.3%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
273.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-203u
period 6top-up-582u
period 5profit withdrawn+66u
period 4top-up-621u
period 3top-up-200u
period 2top-up-555u
period 1top-up-350u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -529 | -10.4% | 61.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 42% | -536 | -9.9% | 63.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 40% | -997 | -45.5% | 99.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -1042 | -10.9% | 120.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -2444 | -12.3% | 273.1% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -4262 | -14% | 455.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | 6666 | 2.41 | 37 | won | +53 | -1444 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1497 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1457 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1416 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 46 | lost | -46 | -1373 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 41 | won | +88 | -1327 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 39 | won | +56 | -1415 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 37 | won | +34 | -1470 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1504 |
| 10.10.26 | FarmVille – Wanted Goons | Wanted Goons | 2.63 | 36 | won | +58 | -1466 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Isurus | 2.08 | 38 | lost | -38 | -1524 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | 6666 | 2.07 | 36 | won | +38 | -1486 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 32 | won | +67 | -1524 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1592 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Villainous | 2.20 | 32 | won | +39 | -1558 |
| 08.10.26 | Saint Sinners – mellren | Saint Sinners | 2.54 | 30 | won | +46 | -1596 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 28 | won | +30 | -1643 |
| 08.10.26 | EAC – PURE | EAC | 2.12 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1673 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Lynn Vision | 1.91 | 29 | won | +26 | -1643 |
| 08.10.26 | ENCE – LFO 10 | LFO 10 | 2.19 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1669 |
| 08.10.26 | Isurus – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.07 | 32 | lost | -32 | -1639 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.81 | 29 | won | +53 | -1607 |
| 07.10.26 | Lazer Cats – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.07 | 28 | won | +30 | -1660 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 26 | won | +36 | -1690 |
| 07.10.26 | BERG – Leo | BERG | 3.08 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1726 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.29 | 26 | won | +33 | -1698 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.11 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1731 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 28 | lost | -28 | -1704 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.96 | 30 | lost | -30 | -1676 |
| 07.10.26 | benched gods – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 2.19 | 31 | lost | -31 | -1646 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 33 | lost | -33 | -1615 |
| 06.10.26 | G2 – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.48 | 31 | won | +45 | -1582 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 32 | lost | -32 | -1628 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 31 | won | +35 | -1595 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 32 | lost | -32 | -1630 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1598 |
| 02.10.26 | Eternal Fire – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.52 | 36 | lost | -36 | -1564 |
| 02.10.26 | BC.Game – Sashi | Sashi | 2.12 | 37 | lost | -37 | -1529 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1491 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 42 | lost | -42 | -1452 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Sashi | 2.27 | 44 | lost | -44 | -1410 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 46 | lost | -46 | -1367 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 48 | lost | -48 | -1321 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 46 | won | +43 | -1272 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 49 | lost | -49 | -1316 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.15 | 51 | lost | -51 | -1267 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 47 | won | +81 | -1216 |
| 01.10.26 | Lavked – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.97 | 50 | lost | -50 | -1296 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 48 | won | +45 | -1247 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 50 | lost | -50 | -1291 |
| 30.09.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.45 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1241 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 21 | won | +29 | -1219 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 19 | won | +24 | -1248 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1272 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 20 | won | +18 | -1252 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1269 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1249 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 20 | won | +35 | -1227 |
| 27.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Noir Verse | KUUSAMO | 1.96 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1262 |
| 27.09.26 | INFINITE – RBLS | INFINITE | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | -1241 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.