Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-355u
ROI
-3.2%
win rate
47%
bets
249
drawdown
75.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-234u
period 3top-up-332u
period 2top-up-163u
period 1profit withdrawn+374u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 249 | 47% | +1624 | +19.6% | 27.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 47% | -38 | -1.5% | 22.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -46 | -1.9% | 22.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -105 | -2.2% | 39.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -355 | -3.2% | 75.3% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 47% | -933 | -4.9% | 109.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 35 | won | +62 | 645 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 34 | won | +32 | 582 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 32 | won | +41 | 551 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | HAVU | 2.66 | 29 | won | +48 | 510 |
| 17.08.26 | paiN Academy – QUINTESSÊNCIA | paiN Academy | 2.16 | 31 | lost | -31 | 462 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.21 | 32 | lost | -32 | 492 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.08 | 34 | lost | -34 | 525 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.98 | 32 | won | +32 | 559 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | GUESS | 1.94 | 31 | won | +29 | 527 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.93 | 33 | lost | -33 | 498 |
| 14.08.26 | FUT – MOUZ | FUT | 2.30 | 31 | won | +40 | 530 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Misa | 2.55 | 28 | won | +44 | 491 |
| 14.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – ALKA | Pugdesonesto | 2.09 | 30 | lost | -30 | 447 |
| 13.08.26 | BERG – Endless Journey | BERG | 2.16 | 28 | won | +33 | 476 |
| 12.08.26 | 9z – paiN | paiN | 2.29 | 30 | lost | -30 | 444 |
| 12.08.26 | Spirit – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 2.23 | 28 | won | +34 | 473 |
| 09.08.26 | HOTU – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 2.44 | 26 | won | +38 | 439 |
| 09.08.26 | 1win – Liquid | Liquid | 1.95 | 28 | lost | -28 | 401 |
| 09.08.26 | 9INE – HOTU | 9INE | 2.50 | 29 | lost | -29 | 429 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | Fluxo | 2.13 | 30 | lost | -30 | 458 |
| 08.08.26 | ALKA – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 2.03 | 32 | lost | -32 | 488 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | 6666 | 2.26 | 34 | lost | -34 | 520 |
| 08.08.26 | Procyon – ODDIK Academy | Procyon | 2.15 | 32 | won | +37 | 554 |
| 08.08.26 | EYEBALLERS – Phantom | EYEBALLERS | 2.33 | 30 | won | +40 | 517 |
| 08.08.26 | Dhala – Prestige | Dhala | 2.07 | 32 | lost | -32 | 478 |
| 07.08.26 | BRUTE – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.52 | 29 | won | +44 | 509 |
| 07.08.26 | Walczaki – Black Phoenix | Walczaki | 2.07 | 31 | lost | -31 | 465 |
| 07.08.26 | INFINITE – Aogiri | Aogiri | 2.05 | 32 | lost | -32 | 496 |
| 06.08.26 | Sashi – Nuclear TigeRES | Sashi | 1.89 | 34 | lost | -34 | 528 |
| 06.08.26 | BESTIA – Grêmio | Grêmio | 2.32 | 36 | lost | -36 | 562 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | ex-RUSTEC | 1.92 | 38 | lost | -38 | 598 |
| 04.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ALKA | ALKA | 1.91 | 36 | won | +33 | 636 |
| 04.08.26 | Just Players – Enjoy | Just Players | 2.09 | 34 | won | +38 | 603 |
| 04.08.26 | Liquid – 9INE | 9INE | 1.91 | 36 | lost | -36 | 566 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 1.96 | 34 | won | +33 | 602 |
| 04.08.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | G2 Ares | 1.96 | 36 | lost | -36 | 569 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | ex-GUARA | 1.90 | 38 | lost | -38 | 605 |
| 03.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.43 | 40 | lost | -40 | 643 |
| 03.08.26 | Leo – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.49 | 42 | lost | -42 | 683 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Metizport | Metizport | 2.26 | 45 | lost | -45 | 726 |
| 02.08.26 | Fortress – los kogutos | Fortress | 1.89 | 47 | lost | -47 | 770 |
| 02.08.26 | Leo – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.76 | 43 | won | +76 | 817 |
| 02.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – WBT | MOUZ NXT | 2.40 | 45 | lost | -45 | 741 |
| 02.08.26 | Omega – DEPO | DEPO | 2.17 | 48 | lost | -48 | 787 |
| 01.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Just Players | Black Phoenix | 2.02 | 45 | won | +47 | 834 |
| 01.08.26 | The Last Resort – Betclic | Betclic | 2.21 | 43 | won | +52 | 788 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | ZWAW | 2.02 | 45 | lost | -45 | 736 |
| 01.08.26 | Liquid – atputies | atputies | 2.01 | 48 | lost | -48 | 781 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.02 | 50 | lost | -50 | 829 |
| 31.07.26 | Fluxo – Imperial | Fluxo | 1.91 | 32 | won | +29 | 879 |
| 31.07.26 | CYBERSHOKE – STATE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.04 | 30 | won | +32 | 850 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – Trainwrecks | ROUNDS | 1.98 | 32 | lost | -32 | 818 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.67 | 29 | won | +49 | 850 |
| 31.07.26 | FaZe – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 1.98 | 31 | lost | -31 | 801 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – BC.Game | HAVU | 1.99 | 33 | lost | -33 | 832 |
| 31.07.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 2.36 | 31 | won | +42 | 865 |
| 31.07.26 | regain – Chicken Coop | regain | 2.22 | 29 | won | +35 | 823 |
| 30.07.26 | Liquid – Spirit | Liquid | 2.66 | 30 | lost | -30 | 788 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.98 | 32 | lost | -32 | 818 |
| 30.07.26 | NRG – Marsborne | NRG | 2.09 | 30 | won | +33 | 850 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.