Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-887u
ROI
-52.4%
win rate
47%
bets
45
drawdown
90.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+113u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -444 | -8.7% | 49.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 43% | -475 | -8.7% | 52.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -835 | -8.6% | 90.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 47% | -887 | -52.4% | 90.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -1812 | -8.7% | 182.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 43% | -3194 | -9.6% | 283.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 45, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.05.26 | Imperial – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.90 | 433 | lost | -433 | 113 |
| 03.05.26 | Nemesis – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.08 | 320 | lost | -320 | 546 |
| 03.05.26 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.95 | 160 | lost | -160 | 866 |
| 02.05.26 | INOX Division – Aurora Young Blud | Aurora Young Blud | 2.11 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1026 |
| 02.05.26 | Lilmix – Famalicão | Lilmix | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1106 |
| 02.05.26 | ZEVS – Just Swing | ZEVS | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1146 |
| 02.05.26 | Voca – Wildcard | Voca | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1166 |
| 02.05.26 | ELITES – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1176 |
| 02.05.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Galorys | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1158 |
| 01.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – dJ uNT frIENDS | Johnny Speeds | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1168 |
| 01.05.26 | Chaos – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1159 |
| 01.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – MANA | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1141 |
| 01.05.26 | BMZ – WYDO | BMZ | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1151 |
| 01.05.26 | Abyssal – FURY | Abyssal | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1141 |
| 01.05.26 | JiJieHao – Wings of Freedom | Wings of Freedom | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1122 |
| 01.05.26 | HereWeGoAgain – Crashers | Crashers | 1.96 | 20 | won | +19 | 1132 |
| 30.04.26 | Vitality – G2 | G2 | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1113 |
| 30.04.26 | CYBERSHOKE – aAa | CYBERSHOKE | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | 1123 |
| 30.04.26 | MANA – ASTRAL | MANA | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1088 |
| 30.04.26 | Walczaki – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1108 |
| 30.04.26 | HEROIC Academy – Oxuji | Oxuji | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1118 |
| 30.04.26 | 9INE – BET-M | BET-M | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1109 |
| 30.04.26 | OverKnight – Shimmer | OverKnight | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1090 |
| 30.04.26 | Bounty Hunters – Keyd Stars | Bounty Hunters | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1100 |
| 30.04.26 | Imperial – Fake do Biru | Imperial | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1091 |
| 29.04.26 | KOLESIE – Walczaki | KOLESIE | 2.08 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1053 |
| 29.04.26 | The QUBE – Rare Atom | The QUBE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1073 |
| 29.04.26 | TYLOO – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1083 |
| 29.04.26 | MIBR Academy – LP | LP | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1045 |
| 29.04.26 | GameHunters – ShindeN | GameHunters | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1065 |
| 28.04.26 | TNC – GenOne | GenOne | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1075 |
| 28.04.26 | Time Waves – low cortisol | low cortisol | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1066 |
| 28.04.26 | Surge – F5 | Surge | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1048 |
| 28.04.26 | InControl – girl kissers | InControl | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1058 |
| 28.04.26 | Wildcard – Aether | Aether | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1039 |
| 28.04.26 | ODDIK – Fake do Biru | Fake do Biru | 1.89 | 40 | won | +35 | 1049 |
| 27.04.26 | BORING PLAYERS – Haunted House | Haunted House | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1013 |
| 27.04.26 | FarmVille – insane players | insane players | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1033 |
| 26.04.26 | aimclub – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1043 |
| 26.04.26 | G2 Ares – Lavked | Lavked | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1034 |
| 26.04.26 | Nemiga – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1016 |
| 26.04.26 | Haunted House – Kaleido | Kaleido | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1026 |
| 26.04.26 | NEXVOID – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1008 |
| 26.04.26 | Passion UA – NuTorious | Passion UA | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1018 |
| 26.04.26 | Foxtrot – EMPIRE | EMPIRE | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1009 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.