Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-82.2%
win rate
35%
bets
17
drawdown
100%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 250 | 48% | -15 | -0.6% | 12.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -29 | -1.2% | 13.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -85 | -1.7% | 27% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -398 | -3.4% | 73.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 17 | 35% | -1000 | -82.2% | 100% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 250 | 48% | -1267 | -6.3% | 159.2% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 17, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.05.26 | M80 – MOUZ | M80 | 2.01 | 427 | lost | -427 | 0 |
| 21.05.26 | Acend – KOLESIE | Acend | 1.89 | 320 | lost | -320 | 427 |
| 21.05.26 | Lynn Vision – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.02 | 160 | lost | -160 | 747 |
| 20.05.26 | ASTRAL – Project 91 | Project 91 | 1.95 | 80 | lost | -80 | 907 |
| 20.05.26 | Young Ninjas – Misa | Young Ninjas | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 987 |
| 20.05.26 | MIBR – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1027 |
| 20.05.26 | Falcons – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1047 |
| 20.05.26 | 3DMAX – MIBR | MIBR | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1057 |
| 19.05.26 | Nemiga – TDK | Nemiga | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1048 |
| 18.05.26 | UNO MILLE – GUARA | UNO MILLE | 1.96 | 20 | won | +19 | 1038 |
| 17.05.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | G2 Ares | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1019 |
| 17.05.26 | Spirit – Falcons | Spirit | 2.03 | 40 | won | +41 | 1029 |
| 16.05.26 | Inner Circle Academy – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 988 |
| 16.05.26 | Lynn Vision – THUNDER dOWNUNDER | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1008 |
| 16.05.26 | Players – GUARA | GUARA | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1018 |
| 14.05.26 | ex-KRÜ – Vasco | Vasco | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 999 |
| 14.05.26 | GUARA – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1009 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.