Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-935u
ROI
-19.2%
win rate
38%
bets
543
drawdown
94.5%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-155u
period 6top-up-362u
period 5top-up-116u
period 4top-up-18u
period 3top-up-83u
period 2top-up-197u
period 1top-up-4u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 46 | 46% | -908 | -50.2% | 92.2% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 38% | -935 | -19.2% | 94.5% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 38% | -1039 | -19.1% | 104.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 38% | -1699 | -19.2% | 169.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 38% | -3319 | -19.5% | 320.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 38% | -4863 | -20.4% | 460.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Gothic – Lavked | Lavked | 2.05 | 8 | won | +9 | 65 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 8 | lost | -8 | 56 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 9 | lost | -9 | 64 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Inner Circle | 1.99 | 9 | lost | -9 | 73 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 9 | lost | -9 | 81 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 9 | won | +18 | 90 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 8 | won | +12 | 72 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Misa | 2.55 | 8 | lost | -8 | 60 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 9 | lost | -9 | 68 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | KZG | 2.38 | 9 | lost | -9 | 77 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.27 | 9 | won | +11 | 85 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Acend | 2.01 | 9 | lost | -9 | 75 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 8 | won | +18 | 83 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 9 | lost | -9 | 66 |
| 09.10.26 | Chicken Coop – DETONATE | DETONATE | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 74 |
| 08.10.26 | Lilmix – Fire Flux | Lilmix | 4.10 | 9 | lost | -9 | 83 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 9 | won | +9 | 92 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | Nexus | 1.96 | 9 | won | +8 | 82 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | THE UNIT | 1.95 | 9 | lost | -9 | 74 |
| 08.10.26 | Legion – Nas | Legion | 2.29 | 9 | lost | -9 | 83 |
| 08.10.26 | Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 2.69 | 9 | lost | -9 | 92 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.81 | 9 | won | +16 | 100 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 85 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 9 | won | +12 | 93 |
| 07.10.26 | Just Players – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 81 |
| 07.10.26 | The KnockoutX – The Huns | The KnockoutX | 2.11 | 9 | won | +10 | 90 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | 81 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 9 | lost | -9 | 89 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.32 | 9 | lost | -9 | 98 |
| 07.10.26 | benched gods – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 2.19 | 9 | lost | -9 | 107 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 116 |
| 06.10.26 | G2 – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.48 | 9 | won | +13 | 125 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 9 | lost | -9 | 112 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 9 | lost | -9 | 121 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 9 | lost | -9 | 130 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 9 | lost | -9 | 139 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | BBL | 2.09 | 9 | won | +10 | 148 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | Glitch | 2.15 | 9 | lost | -9 | 138 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | 148 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 9 | lost | -9 | 157 |
| 02.10.26 | Luminosity – BIG | BIG | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 166 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | benched gods | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 176 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 186 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 195 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 186 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | CYBERSHOKE | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 196 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 10 | won | +17 | 206 |
| 01.10.26 | Lavked – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 189 |
| 01.10.26 | SAW – NT | NT | 2.32 | 10 | lost | -10 | 199 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 209 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | Leo | 2.15 | 6 | lost | -6 | 219 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | MAYBE | 2.40 | 6 | won | +9 | 226 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 6 | won | +8 | 217 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | PAQT | 2.36 | 6 | won | +8 | 209 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 6 | won | +6 | 201 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 6 | lost | -6 | 195 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 6 | lost | -6 | 201 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 6 | won | +11 | 207 |
| 27.09.26 | INFINITE – RBLS | INFINITE | 1.95 | 6 | won | +6 | 197 |
| 27.09.26 | Imperial – paiN | paiN | 3.48 | 6 | lost | -6 | 191 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.