Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+90u
ROI
+3.6%
win rate
51%
bets
249
drawdown
14.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-101u
period 3profit withdrawn+49u
period 2profit withdrawn+102u
period 1profit withdrawn+40u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +492 | +1.8% | 60.5% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +395 | +2.9% | 38.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +177 | +3.4% | 23.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 249 | 51% | +137 | +1.4% | 60.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 249 | 51% | +91 | +3.7% | 14.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 249 | 51% | +90 | +3.6% | 14.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.99 | 9 | won | +9 | 1090 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1081 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1090 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | Fortress | 2.03 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1099 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | Atreides | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1109 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1118 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 1127 |
| 15.08.26 | JiJieHao – Aurora | JiJieHao | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1137 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 9 | won | +12 | 1146 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1134 |
| 14.08.26 | Mai Tai – UNiTY | Mai Tai | 2.34 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1144 |
| 14.08.26 | EAC – benched gods | EAC | 2.09 | 10 | won | +10 | 1153 |
| 14.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetBoom | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.14 | 9 | won | +11 | 1143 |
| 13.08.26 | Falcons – Astralis | Astralis | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1132 |
| 13.08.26 | The Last Resort – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.01 | 9 | won | +10 | 1142 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | K27 | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1132 |
| 10.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1142 |
| 09.08.26 | HEROIC – fnatic | HEROIC | 2.44 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1151 |
| 09.08.26 | DEPO – Game Point | Game Point | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1161 |
| 09.08.26 | LFO 7 – Anteiku | Anteiku | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1171 |
| 09.08.26 | INFINITE – 100 Thieves | INFINITE | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1181 |
| 09.08.26 | JiJieHao – DENDELE | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 10 | won | +10 | 1191 |
| 08.08.26 | ABT – 9INE | 9INE | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 1181 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | eSuba | 2.29 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1172 |
| 08.08.26 | 100 Thieves – NADE | NADE | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1182 |
| 07.08.26 | Virtus.pro – Sangal | Sangal | 2.62 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1192 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | Kreazion | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 1202 |
| 07.08.26 | BIG – z to forward | z to forward | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1193 |
| 06.08.26 | MAYBE – Jam | MAYBE | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1203 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | BET-M | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 1213 |
| 06.08.26 | Ground Zero – Abyssal | Abyssal | 2.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1201 |
| 04.08.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1212 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-MANA – Bushido Wildcats | ex-MANA | 2.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1222 |
| 04.08.26 | Eternal Fire – INOX Division | Eternal Fire | 2.14 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1232 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Bushido Wildcats | 1.92 | 10 | won | +10 | 1243 |
| 04.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.43 | 10 | won | +15 | 1233 |
| 04.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.64 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1218 |
| 03.08.26 | los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYS | los kogutos | 2.16 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1229 |
| 03.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.43 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1239 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | ARCRED | 2.05 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1250 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | NRG | 1.97 | 11 | won | +10 | 1261 |
| 03.08.26 | NRG – SportsBetExpert | NRG | 2.14 | 10 | won | +12 | 1250 |
| 02.08.26 | DragonClaw – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.92 | 10 | won | +10 | 1238 |
| 02.08.26 | los kogutos – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1229 |
| 02.08.26 | DEPO – THE UNIT | DEPO | 1.93 | 10 | won | +10 | 1239 |
| 01.08.26 | mellren – Spirit Academy | Spirit Academy | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 1230 |
| 01.08.26 | atputies – The Last Resort | atputies | 2.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1218 |
| 01.08.26 | SINNERS – INOX Division | SINNERS | 3.60 | 10 | won | +26 | 1228 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – ZWAW | ZWAW | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1202 |
| 01.08.26 | DONSTU – ALTAY | DONSTU | 2.06 | 10 | won | +11 | 1212 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – RayRay | DEPO | 2.00 | 10 | won | +10 | 1201 |
| 31.07.26 | Banda Chuya – mellren | Banda Chuya | 2.19 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1191 |
| 31.07.26 | BC.Game – Trainwrecks | Trainwrecks | 1.90 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1202 |
| 31.07.26 | K27 – Just Players | K27 | 2.22 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1213 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.67 | 11 | won | +18 | 1224 |
| 31.07.26 | HOTU – XCLAN | XCLAN | 2.54 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1206 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.92 | 11 | won | +10 | 1217 |
| 30.07.26 | 3DMAX – MOUZ | 3DMAX | 2.42 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1207 |
| 30.07.26 | KUUSAMO – BOJONG | KUUSAMO | 2.02 | 11 | won | +11 | 1218 |
| 30.07.26 | Black Phoenix – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 1.98 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1207 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.