Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-2094u
ROI
-10.2%
win rate
42%
bets
544
drawdown
260.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+160u
period 6top-up-595u
period 5profit withdrawn+66u
period 4top-up-621u
period 3top-up-200u
period 2top-up-555u
period 1top-up-350u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -457 | -8.9% | 58% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 544 | 42% | -464 | -8.5% | 59.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -897 | -9.3% | 113.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 40% | -997 | -45.5% | 99.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -2094 | -10.2% | 260.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 544 | 42% | -3691 | -11.4% | 441.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 544, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 61 | lost | -61 | -1094 |
| 14.10.26 | GenOne – 6666 | 6666 | 2.41 | 57 | won | +81 | -1033 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 60 | lost | -60 | -1114 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 63 | lost | -63 | -1054 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Inner Circle | 1.99 | 67 | lost | -67 | -991 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Yawara | 2.61 | 70 | lost | -70 | -924 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 63 | won | +134 | -854 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 59 | won | +86 | -988 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Misa | 2.55 | 62 | lost | -62 | -1074 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.10 | 59 | won | +65 | -1012 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | DETONATE | 2.01 | 56 | won | +57 | -1076 |
| 10.10.26 | Galorys – Turma do Pagode | Galorys | 1.90 | 54 | won | +48 | -1133 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Acend | 2.01 | 56 | lost | -56 | -1181 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | Bebop | 3.08 | 51 | won | +106 | -1125 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 47 | won | +89 | -1231 |
| 09.10.26 | Villainous – Reign Above | Villainous | 2.20 | 44 | won | +53 | -1320 |
| 08.10.26 | FaZe – Sangal | FaZe | 2.58 | 41 | won | +65 | -1372 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 39 | won | +41 | -1437 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Misa | Azuolas | 2.43 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1478 |
| 08.10.26 | BERG – mellren | BERG | 3.32 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1438 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | Privateer | 2.81 | 39 | won | +71 | -1395 |
| 08.10.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Stars | ex-Keyd Stars | 2.04 | 37 | won | +39 | -1466 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1505 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.40 | 42 | lost | -42 | -1466 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 39 | won | +54 | -1424 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Privateer | 3.36 | 35 | won | +82 | -1478 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.29 | 33 | won | +42 | -1560 |
| 07.10.26 | Falcons Force – Orion Wanderers | Orion Wanderers | 2.11 | 34 | lost | -34 | -1602 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 36 | lost | -36 | -1568 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.96 | 38 | lost | -38 | -1532 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 36 | won | +46 | -1494 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 38 | lost | -38 | -1540 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 35 | won | +49 | -1502 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 37 | lost | -37 | -1552 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 39 | lost | -39 | -1515 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 41 | lost | -41 | -1476 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1435 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 2.26 | 45 | lost | -45 | -1392 |
| 02.10.26 | BC.Game – Sashi | Sashi | 2.12 | 48 | lost | -48 | -1346 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 50 | lost | -50 | -1298 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.23 | 53 | lost | -53 | -1248 |
| 02.10.26 | HAVU – BBL | HAVU | 2.48 | 56 | lost | -56 | -1195 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | benched gods | 2.15 | 59 | lost | -59 | -1139 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 53 | won | +108 | -1081 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 51 | won | +48 | -1188 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 54 | lost | -54 | -1236 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 56 | lost | -56 | -1182 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 52 | won | +89 | -1126 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | Nemesis | 1.90 | 50 | won | +45 | -1215 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 48 | won | +45 | -1260 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 50 | lost | -50 | -1305 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | Leo | 2.15 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1255 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 20 | won | +28 | -1233 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 19 | won | +23 | -1261 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | PAQT | 2.36 | 18 | won | +24 | -1284 |
| 28.09.26 | Leo – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.21 | 17 | won | +20 | -1308 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 17 | lost | -17 | -1328 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 18 | lost | -18 | -1311 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 17 | won | +30 | -1293 |
| 27.09.26 | Fluxo – SAW | SAW | 2.83 | 15 | won | +28 | -1322 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.