Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-940u
ROI
-26.7%
win rate
40%
bets
87
drawdown
95.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+60u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 1374 | 44% | -694 | -5.1% | 76.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1374 | 44% | -713 | -5.5% | 77.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 87 | 40% | -940 | -26.7% | 95.4% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 1374 | 44% | -1446 | -5.9% | 152.9% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1374 | 44% | -3510 | -7.1% | 351.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1374 | 44% | -5765 | -9.3% | 554.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 87, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.05.26 | Keyd Stars – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.89 | 595 | lost | -595 | 60 |
| 04.05.26 | Imperial – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.90 | 320 | lost | -320 | 655 |
| 03.05.26 | Nemesis – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.08 | 160 | lost | -160 | 975 |
| 03.05.26 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.95 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1135 |
| 02.05.26 | Vitality – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1215 |
| 02.05.26 | G2 Ares – Lilmix | Lilmix | 1.94 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1255 |
| 02.05.26 | Walczaki – AaB | AaB | 2.22 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1275 |
| 02.05.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 2.02 | 40 | won | +41 | 1285 |
| 02.05.26 | INOX Division – Aurora Young Blud | Aurora Young Blud | 2.11 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1244 |
| 02.05.26 | Clutchain fe – home | Clutchain fe | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1264 |
| 02.05.26 | Wings of Freedom – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1274 |
| 02.05.26 | Gentle Mates – FOKUS | Gentle Mates | 1.95 | 160 | won | +152 | 1265 |
| 02.05.26 | Lilmix – Famalicão | Lilmix | 1.95 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1113 |
| 02.05.26 | ex-CSDIILIT – The Last Resort | ex-CSDIILIT | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1193 |
| 02.05.26 | Last Bullet – BMZ | BMZ | 2.01 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1233 |
| 02.05.26 | Voca – Wildcard | Voca | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1253 |
| 02.05.26 | ELITES – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | 1263 |
| 02.05.26 | ShindeN – Bounty Hunters | ShindeN | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1228 |
| 01.05.26 | HEROIC Academy – ASTRAL | HEROIC Academy | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1248 |
| 01.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – dJ uNT frIENDS | Johnny Speeds | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1258 |
| 01.05.26 | Chaos – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1248 |
| 01.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – MANA | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1230 |
| 01.05.26 | BMZ – WYDO | BMZ | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1240 |
| 01.05.26 | GenOne – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1221 |
| 01.05.26 | Abyssal – FURY | Abyssal | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1231 |
| 01.05.26 | 5star – Unitronics | 5star | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1222 |
| 01.05.26 | BOSS – Aether | BOSS | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1203 |
| 01.05.26 | HereWeGoAgain – Crashers | Crashers | 1.96 | 160 | won | +153 | 1213 |
| 30.04.26 | Vitality – G2 | G2 | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1060 |
| 30.04.26 | MANA – ASTRAL | MANA | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1140 |
| 30.04.26 | AaB – TNC | TNC | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1180 |
| 30.04.26 | The Huns – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1200 |
| 30.04.26 | HEROIC Academy – Oxuji | Oxuji | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1210 |
| 30.04.26 | Walczaki – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1192 |
| 30.04.26 | Rooster – WYDO | Rooster | 2.02 | 160 | won | +164 | 1202 |
| 30.04.26 | JiJieHao – UR | UR | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1038 |
| 30.04.26 | Wings of Freedom – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1118 |
| 30.04.26 | Legion – Unitronics | Legion | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1158 |
| 30.04.26 | OverKnight – Shimmer | OverKnight | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1178 |
| 30.04.26 | Bounty Hunters – Keyd Stars | Bounty Hunters | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1188 |
| 30.04.26 | Imperial – Fake do Biru | Imperial | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1179 |
| 29.04.26 | Players – R2 | R2 | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 1170 |
| 29.04.26 | Vitality – FUT | FUT | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1099 |
| 29.04.26 | KOLESIE – Walczaki | KOLESIE | 2.08 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1139 |
| 29.04.26 | PsychoFace – Dripmen | Dripmen | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1159 |
| 29.04.26 | TYLOO – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1169 |
| 29.04.26 | The QUBE – Rare Atom | The QUBE | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1131 |
| 29.04.26 | ASTRAL – Clutchain fe | Clutchain fe | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1151 |
| 29.04.26 | Ding Cuts – low cortisol | Ding Cuts | 2.02 | 80 | won | +82 | 1161 |
| 29.04.26 | illwill – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1079 |
| 29.04.26 | MIBR Academy – LP | LP | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1119 |
| 29.04.26 | GameHunters – ShindeN | GameHunters | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1139 |
| 28.04.26 | Walczaki – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 2.09 | 40 | won | +43 | 1149 |
| 28.04.26 | Just Players – INOX Division | Just Players | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1105 |
| 28.04.26 | Lilmix – Ursa | Ursa | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1125 |
| 28.04.26 | Alter Ego – Last Bullet | Last Bullet | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1135 |
| 28.04.26 | BORING PLAYERS – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1126 |
| 28.04.26 | Rare Atom – Kaleido | Kaleido | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1109 |
| 28.04.26 | Time Waves – low cortisol | low cortisol | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1119 |
| 28.04.26 | Zomblers – regain | Zomblers | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1110 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.