Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
+760u
ROI
+3.6%
win rate
47%
bets
552
drawdown
55.6%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-1000u
period 3profit withdrawn+1203u
period 2top-up-163u
period 1profit withdrawn+720u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 552 | 47% | +760 | +3.6% | 55.6% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 47% | -199 | -3.2% | 35.5% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -218 | -3.6% | 35.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -468 | -4.1% | 64.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -1322 | -5.3% | 132% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 47% | -2637 | -6.9% | 213.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 552, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09.08.26 | 9INE – HOTU | 9INE | 2.50 | 617 | lost | -617 | 1760 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | Fluxo | 2.13 | 320 | lost | -320 | 2377 |
| 09.08.26 | FOKUS – Acend | FOKUS | 1.90 | 160 | lost | -160 | 2697 |
| 09.08.26 | SINNERS – EYEBALLERS | SINNERS | 2.05 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2857 |
| 08.08.26 | ALKA – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 2.03 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2937 |
| 08.08.26 | Iberian Soul – 6666 | 6666 | 2.26 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2977 |
| 08.08.26 | INFINITE – Giant Pandas | Giant Pandas | 2.04 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2997 |
| 08.08.26 | Procyon – ODDIK Academy | Procyon | 2.15 | 20 | won | +23 | 3007 |
| 08.08.26 | Prestige – Metizport | Metizport | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2984 |
| 08.08.26 | Sangal – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.93 | 40 | won | +37 | 2994 |
| 08.08.26 | eSuba – BRUTE | eSuba | 2.34 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2957 |
| 08.08.26 | Acend – NRG | Acend | 1.93 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2977 |
| 08.08.26 | EYEBALLERS – Phantom | EYEBALLERS | 2.33 | 10 | won | +13 | 2987 |
| 08.08.26 | Passion Chicha – Vael | Vael | 1.89 | 640 | won | +572 | 2974 |
| 08.08.26 | Dhala – Prestige | Dhala | 2.07 | 320 | lost | -320 | 2402 |
| 08.08.26 | Sangal – Zeste | Zeste | 1.91 | 160 | lost | -160 | 2722 |
| 08.08.26 | Echo – OG | OG | 2.11 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2882 |
| 08.08.26 | ASTRAL – Kreazion | Kreazion | 2.08 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2962 |
| 08.08.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Galorys | 2.10 | 20 | lost | -20 | 3002 |
| 07.08.26 | Acend – Vandulken | Vandulken | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 3022 |
| 07.08.26 | BRUTE – NAVI Junior | NAVI Junior | 2.52 | 10 | won | +15 | 3032 |
| 07.08.26 | 1win – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.94 | 20 | won | +19 | 3017 |
| 07.08.26 | Inner Circle – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 2.27 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2998 |
| 07.08.26 | NIO – Kreazion | Kreazion | 1.90 | 40 | won | +36 | 3008 |
| 07.08.26 | Jam – LPH | LPH | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2972 |
| 07.08.26 | Walczaki – Black Phoenix | Walczaki | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2992 |
| 07.08.26 | Abyssal – Arcade | Abyssal | 2.00 | 160 | won | +160 | 3002 |
| 07.08.26 | DUSTY – Fluxo | DUSTY | 2.28 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2842 |
| 07.08.26 | HOTU – Galactik rebels | Galactik rebels | 2.35 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2922 |
| 07.08.26 | BIG – z to forward | z to forward | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2962 |
| 07.08.26 | INFINITE – Aogiri | Aogiri | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2982 |
| 06.08.26 | GamersLab – MAYBE | GamersLab | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 2992 |
| 06.08.26 | BET-M – SPARTA | BET-M | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 2982 |
| 06.08.26 | eSuba – NAVI Junior | eSuba | 1.98 | 160 | won | +157 | 2970 |
| 06.08.26 | Sashi – Nuclear TigeRES | Sashi | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 2813 |
| 06.08.26 | BESTIA – Grêmio | Grêmio | 2.32 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2893 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | ex-RUSTEC | 1.92 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2933 |
| 05.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ODDIK Academy | ODDIK Academy | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2953 |
| 05.08.26 | Betclic – Liquid | Betclic | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 2963 |
| 05.08.26 | Jam – eSuba | Jam | 1.90 | 20 | won | +18 | 2954 |
| 05.08.26 | Nordic Partners – GenOne | Nordic Partners | 3.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2936 |
| 05.08.26 | NAVI Junior – MAYBE | NAVI Junior | 2.06 | 10 | won | +11 | 2946 |
| 04.08.26 | UNO MILLE – ALKA | ALKA | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 2935 |
| 04.08.26 | Just Players – Enjoy | Just Players | 2.09 | 20 | won | +22 | 2926 |
| 04.08.26 | Liquid – 9INE | 9INE | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2904 |
| 04.08.26 | Finishers – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 1.96 | 40 | won | +38 | 2914 |
| 04.08.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | G2 Ares | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2876 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | ex-GUARA | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2896 |
| 03.08.26 | Keyd Stars – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 2906 |
| 03.08.26 | ex-MANA – MOUZ NXT | ex-MANA | 1.99 | 20 | won | +20 | 2897 |
| 03.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2877 |
| 03.08.26 | Johnny Speeds – Metizport | Johnny Speeds | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 2887 |
| 03.08.26 | SPARTA – ex-Young Ninjas | SPARTA | 1.98 | 20 | won | +20 | 2878 |
| 03.08.26 | Leo – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.49 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2858 |
| 03.08.26 | Noir Verse – Fortress | Noir Verse | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 2868 |
| 03.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Misa | MOUZ NXT | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 2859 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Metizport | Metizport | 2.26 | 40 | lost | -40 | 2788 |
| 03.08.26 | Metizport – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 2828 |
| 03.08.26 | fnatic – Lilmix | Lilmix | 3.21 | 10 | lost | -10 | 2848 |
| 03.08.26 | Voca – NRG | NRG | 1.97 | 20 | won | +19 | 2858 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.