Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-395u
ROI
-6.8%
win rate
45%
bets
619
drawdown
49.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-65u
period 3top-up-176u
period 2top-up-92u
period 1top-up-61u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 619 | 45% | -388 | -6.3% | 50.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 619 | 45% | -395 | -6.8% | 49.8% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 619 | 45% | -796 | -7.2% | 92.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 111 | 50% | -1000 | -22.5% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 619 | 45% | -1928 | -8.4% | 183.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 619 | 45% | -3237 | -9.8% | 244.4% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 619, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 605 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 9 | won | +10 | 614 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 9 | won | +9 | 605 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | 596 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 2.02 | 9 | won | +9 | 605 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 9 | won | +9 | 596 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 9 | won | +9 | 587 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 9 | won | +10 | 578 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 9 | won | +10 | 567 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 9 | won | +11 | 557 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 9 | lost | -9 | 546 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 9 | lost | -9 | 555 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 9 | lost | -9 | 564 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 9 | lost | -9 | 573 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 9 | won | +10 | 582 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 9 | won | +8 | 572 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 9 | lost | -9 | 564 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 9 | lost | -9 | 573 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 9 | lost | -9 | 583 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 9 | won | +12 | 592 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 9 | won | +13 | 580 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 1.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | 567 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.46 | 9 | lost | -9 | 576 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 586 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.15 | 9 | lost | -9 | 595 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Inner Circle Academy | 1.96 | 9 | won | +9 | 604 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 9 | won | +9 | 595 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – BASEMENT BOYS | EAC | 2.17 | 9 | won | +11 | 586 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 9 | lost | -9 | 575 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.20 | 9 | lost | -9 | 584 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.21 | 9 | lost | -9 | 594 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 9 | lost | -9 | 603 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 612 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | BIG | 2.07 | 10 | lost | -10 | 622 |
| 15.08.26 | INOX Division – Misa | Misa | 2.71 | 10 | lost | -10 | 632 |
| 15.08.26 | magic – 3DMAX | 3DMAX | 2.49 | 10 | lost | -10 | 641 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – OG | OG | 2.00 | 10 | won | +10 | 651 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Misa | 2.28 | 10 | won | +12 | 641 |
| 15.08.26 | ex-MANA – Misa | Misa | 2.03 | 9 | won | +10 | 629 |
| 15.08.26 | GUESS – Arch | GUESS | 1.94 | 9 | won | +9 | 619 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | NEW VISION | 2.46 | 9 | won | +14 | 610 |
| 15.08.26 | Pugdesonesto – QUINTESSÊNCIA | Pugdesonesto | 1.95 | 9 | lost | -9 | 597 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.93 | 9 | lost | -9 | 606 |
| 14.08.26 | Lavked – BASEMENT BOYS | Lavked | 2.43 | 9 | won | +13 | 616 |
| 14.08.26 | K27 – MIBR | MIBR | 2.00 | 9 | won | +9 | 602 |
| 14.08.26 | ex-MANA – Lazer Cats | ex-MANA | 2.00 | 9 | won | +9 | 593 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lazer Cats | MOUZ NXT | 2.10 | 9 | won | +10 | 584 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.61 | 9 | lost | -9 | 574 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Misa | 2.55 | 9 | won | +14 | 583 |
| 14.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 569 |
| 14.08.26 | Enjoy – Misa | Misa | 2.59 | 9 | lost | -9 | 578 |
| 13.08.26 | Yawara – Keyd Stars | Keyd Stars | 1.94 | 9 | won | +9 | 588 |
| 13.08.26 | GamerLegion – JiJieHao | GamerLegion | 2.36 | 9 | won | +12 | 579 |
| 12.08.26 | Vitality – 100 Thieves | Vitality | 2.48 | 9 | won | +13 | 567 |
| 12.08.26 | MIBR – Astralis | Astralis | 2.14 | 9 | won | +10 | 554 |
| 12.08.26 | los kogutos – BERG | los kogutos | 2.08 | 9 | won | +9 | 544 |
| 12.08.26 | Falcons – K27 | K27 | 2.03 | 9 | lost | -9 | 534 |
| 12.08.26 | Ground Zero – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.08 | 9 | lost | -9 | 543 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 2.63 | 9 | lost | -9 | 552 |
| 11.08.26 | Isurus – Grêmio | Grêmio | 2.23 | 9 | lost | -9 | 561 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.