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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-864u
ROI
-6.8%
win rate
44%
bets
1373
drawdown
91.7%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+14u
period 6top-up-196u
period 5top-up-26u
period 4top-up-99u
period 3top-up-203u
period 2top-up-302u
period 1top-up-52u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8442%-790-24%83.6%Select
1% of bankroll137344%-864-6.8%91.7%Selected
Flat (10 units)137344%-895-6.5%95.4%Select
2% of bankroll137344%-1661-7.1%168.6%Select
5% of bankroll137344%-3604-8.1%325.9%Select
10% of bankroll137344%-5547-10.1%441.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1373, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5710lost-10136
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9310lost-10146
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.0510won+11156
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0110lost-10145
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2910won+13156
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10143
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0410won+11153
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9910lost-10142
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4510lost-10153
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9611lost-11163
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9610won+10174
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.0911lost-11164
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+22174
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6410lost-10152
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9711lost-11163
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15173
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9210won+9158
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8410lost-10149
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3710lost-10159
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1311lost-11170
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0911lost-11180
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1011won+12191
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5111lost-11179
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7011lost-11190
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0111won+11201
10.10.26regain – VillainousVillainous2.2611lost-11190
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9811lost-11201
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2711won+14212
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2911lost-11198
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoMOUZ NXT2.6111won+17209
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3411lost-11192
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0711won+11202
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.1311lost-11191
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2411won+13202
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7011lost-11188
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8911won+20199
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0511lost-11179
09.10.26New Legends – Wanted GoonsWanted Goons2.3511won+14190
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeLP2.2910won+13176
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9611lost-11162
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9910won+10173
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.7811lost-11162
08.10.26SINNERS – Black PhoenixSINNERS1.9711lost-11173
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0711won+11184
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4311lost-11172
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5611lost-11183
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2011won+13194
08.10.26Rare Atom – Just SwingJust Swing2.3710won+14181
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9110won+9167
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8110won+18157
08.10.26Enjoy – 666666662.5010won+15139
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.2410lost-10124
08.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.5110lost-10134
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0210won+10144
08.10.26Wanted Goons – Iowa StormboarWanted Goons2.9310lost-10134
08.10.26METANOIA Wolves – LPMETANOIA Wolves3.1310lost-10144
08.10.26Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.6910lost-10154
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9010won+9165
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsFamalicão2.5510lost-10155
07.10.26Sangal – SAWSAW2.0911lost-11166
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.