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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1322u
ROI
-5.3%
win rate
47%
bets
618
drawdown
132%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

5% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-457u
period 3top-up-392u
period 2top-up-539u
period 1profit withdrawn+66u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale55247%+760+3.6%55.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Flat (10 units)61847%-199-3.2%35.5%Select
1% of bankroll61847%-218-3.6%35.7%Select
2% of bankroll61847%-468-4.1%64.8%Select
5% of bankroll61847%-1322-5.3%132%Selected
10% of bankroll61847%-2637-6.9%213.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Metizport – ColorMetizport1.9226won+24-322
20.08.26Natus Vincere – LegacyLegacy1.9025won+22-346
20.08.26Falcons – The MongolZThe MongolZ2.4926lost-26-368
20.08.26Bushido Wildcats – RaccoonsRaccoons2.3528lost-28-342
19.08.26Permitta – Falcons ForceFalcons Force1.9826won+26-314
19.08.26EAC – ColorColor2.0125won+25-340
19.08.26FUT – magicFUT1.9824won+23-365
19.08.26Black Phoenix – Bushido WildcatsBlack Phoenix2.7822won+39-389
19.08.26Permitta – EACPermitta2.0923lost-23-427
19.08.26Lavked – ReviseLavked2.1722won+25-404
19.08.26Misa – The Last ResortMisa2.1923lost-23-430
19.08.26G2 Ares – ex-Zero TenacityG2 Ares2.0024lost-24-407
19.08.26GenOne – UNiTYUNiTY2.5425lost-25-383
19.08.26Bushido Wildcats – Endless JourneyEndless Journey2.7327lost-27-357
18.08.26Metizport – SPARTAMetizport1.9026won+23-331
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexarex-Zero Tenacity2.0124won+25-354
18.08.26Permitta – OGOG1.9423won+22-378
18.08.26Strael Bora – The Last ResortStrael Bora1.9124lost-24-400
18.08.26Omega – Fire FluxFire Flux2.2923won+30-376
18.08.26ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTECex-Zero Tenacity2.4121won+30-405
18.08.26Bebop – benched godsBebop2.0523lost-23-436
18.08.26Honvéd – EntropyEntropy1.9224lost-24-413
17.08.26Enjoy – HAVUHAVU2.6622won+37-389
17.08.26Revise – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.9723lost-23-426
17.08.26NEW VISION – VexarNEW VISION2.1024lost-24-403
17.08.26Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero TenacityInner Circle Academy1.9623won+22-378
17.08.26paiN Academy – QUINTESSÊNCIApaiN Academy2.1624lost-24-400
16.08.26Legacy – MIBRLegacy2.0223won+24-376
16.08.26Keyd Stars – ImperialKeyd Stars2.2124lost-24-400
16.08.26INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYSBASEMENT BOYS2.2123won+28-375
16.08.26FORZE Reload – DONSTUDONSTU2.0824lost-24-403
16.08.26ex-MANA – ex-RUSTECex-MANA2.3526lost-26-379
16.08.26paiN Academy – ALKApaiN Academy2.1827lost-27-353
15.08.26BAKS – BASEMENT BOYSBAKS1.9028lost-28-326
15.08.26Noir Verse – ex-Sashi AcademyNoir Verse1.9427won+25-298
15.08.26MOUZ NXT – ex-MANAex-MANA1.9826won+25-323
15.08.26SINQU – BASEMENT BOYSSINQU2.1127lost-27-349
15.08.26Fire Flux – OGOG2.0026won+26-322
15.08.26GUESS – ArchGUESS1.9425won+23-347
15.08.26The MongolZ – Natus VincereThe MongolZ1.9026lost-26-371
15.08.26BESTIA – ALKAALKA2.0427lost-27-344
15.08.26Noir Verse – EntropyNoir Verse1.9626won+25-317
14.08.26Galorys – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS1.9328lost-28-342
14.08.26Lavked – BASEMENT BOYSLavked2.4326won+37-315
14.08.26INOX Division – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT2.6727lost-27-351
14.08.26FUT – MOUZFUT2.3025won+33-324
14.08.26MOUZ NXT – Lazer CatsMOUZ NXT2.1024won+26-357
14.08.26Misa – LeoMisa2.5522won+35-384
14.08.26OG – PrivateerPrivateer1.9224lost-24-418
14.08.26MOUZ NXT – EnjoyMOUZ NXT2.4425lost-25-395
14.08.26Pugdesonesto – ALKAPugdesonesto2.0926lost-26-370
13.08.26BERG – Endless JourneyBERG2.1625won+28-344
12.08.269z – paiNpaiN2.2926lost-26-373
12.08.26train launcher – benched godsbenched gods1.9725won+24-347
12.08.26BetBoom – FaZeFaZe1.9924won+23-371
12.08.26PARIVISION – B8B81.9323won+21-394
12.08.26Spirit – JiJieHaoJiJieHao2.2321won+26-415
12.08.26Luminosity – GamerLegionLuminosity1.9722lost-22-441
11.08.26Abyssal – Ground ZeroAbyssal2.2421won+26-419
10.08.26BORRACHEIROS – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0122lost-22-445
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.