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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2845u
ROI
-5.4%
win rate
45%
bets
1375
drawdown
262%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-549u
period 6top-up-729u
period 5profit withdrawn+31u
period 4top-up-228u
period 3top-up-663u
period 2top-up-359u
period 1top-up-348u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137545%-460-3.3%47.6%Select
1% of bankroll137545%-496-3.7%51.1%Select
Martingale8443%-830-28%86.6%Select
2% of bankroll137545%-1050-4.1%104.7%Select
5% of bankroll137545%-2845-5.4%262%Selected
10% of bankroll137545%-5323-7.6%449.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1375, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26BET-M – FORZE ReloadBET-M2.1324lost-24-1845
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9825lost-25-1821
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5726lost-26-1796
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.9328lost-28-1770
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.9029lost-29-1742
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0131lost-31-1713
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2929won+37-1682
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1130lost-30-1719
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0429won+30-1689
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.9930lost-30-1719
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9932lost-32-1689
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9634lost-34-1657
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.1835lost-35-1623
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6137lost-37-1588
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1234won+71-1550
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.2032won+38-1622
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9733lost-33-1660
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4531won+45-1626
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.9230won+27-1671
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8431lost-31-1699
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.3733lost-33-1667
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1335lost-35-1634
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0937lost-37-1600
10.10.26Lavked – FortressFortress2.4539lost-39-1563
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5141lost-41-1524
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7043lost-43-1484
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGKZG2.3845lost-45-1441
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0143won+43-1396
10.10.26Galorys – Turma do PagodeGalorys1.9041won+37-1439
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9843lost-43-1476
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2945lost-45-1433
09.10.26Iberian Soul – Noir VerseNoir Verse1.9348lost-48-1388
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3450lost-50-1340
09.10.26Acend – NexusAcend2.0153lost-53-1289
09.10.26Vitalem Aerem – Rare AtomVitalem Aerem2.4849won+73-1237
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2446won+57-1310
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7049lost-49-1367
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0844won+92-1318
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0547lost-47-1410
09.10.26Zomblers – Desi BoyzZomblers1.8945won+40-1364
09.10.26Procyon – BESTIA AcademyProcyon1.8943won+38-1404
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9645lost-45-1442
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9943won+42-1397
08.10.26FaZe – SangalFaZe2.5840won+63-1439
08.10.26MOUZ NXT – HYPERSPIRITMOUZ NXT1.9538won+36-1502
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0736won+38-1538
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4338lost-38-1576
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5640lost-40-1538
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9138won+35-1499
08.10.26Alter Ego – KaleidoKaleido2.2036won+43-1533
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8133won+60-1577
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.9735lost-35-1636
08.10.26Enjoy – 666666662.5032won+49-1602
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSG2 Ares2.0531won+32-1650
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1932lost-32-1682
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0231won+31-1650
08.10.26Villainous – FarmVilleVillainous2.0632lost-32-1681
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9031won+28-1649
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0733lost-33-1677
08.10.26Galorys – GrêmioGrêmio2.9430won+58-1644
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.