Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-836u
ROI
-21.8%
win rate
41%
bets
87
drawdown
86.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+164u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 1372 | 44% | -751 | -5.5% | 75.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1372 | 44% | -760 | -6% | 76.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 87 | 41% | -836 | -21.8% | 86.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1372 | 44% | -1519 | -6.6% | 150.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1372 | 44% | -3567 | -8.4% | 345.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1372 | 44% | -5761 | -11.5% | 537.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 87, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04.05.26 | Keyd Stars – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.89 | 464 | lost | -464 | 164 |
| 04.05.26 | Imperial – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.90 | 320 | lost | -320 | 628 |
| 03.05.26 | Nemesis – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.08 | 160 | lost | -160 | 948 |
| 03.05.26 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.95 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1108 |
| 02.05.26 | Vitality – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1188 |
| 02.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – INFINITE | Johnny Speeds | 2.08 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1228 |
| 02.05.26 | Walczaki – AaB | AaB | 2.22 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1248 |
| 02.05.26 | ASTRAL – Bebop | Bebop | 2.01 | 40 | won | +40 | 1258 |
| 02.05.26 | INOX Division – Aurora Young Blud | Aurora Young Blud | 2.11 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1218 |
| 02.05.26 | Clutchain fe – home | Clutchain fe | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1238 |
| 02.05.26 | PsychoFace – Ursa | Ursa | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 1248 |
| 02.05.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.96 | 160 | won | +153 | 1239 |
| 02.05.26 | Lilmix – Famalicão | Lilmix | 1.95 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1085 |
| 02.05.26 | ex-CSDIILIT – The Last Resort | ex-CSDIILIT | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1165 |
| 02.05.26 | ZEVS – Just Swing | ZEVS | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1205 |
| 02.05.26 | Voca – Wildcard | Voca | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1225 |
| 02.05.26 | ELITES – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | 1235 |
| 02.05.26 | Imperial – Galorys | Galorys | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1200 |
| 01.05.26 | HEROIC Academy – ASTRAL | HEROIC Academy | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1220 |
| 01.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – dJ uNT frIENDS | Johnny Speeds | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1230 |
| 01.05.26 | Chaos – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1220 |
| 01.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – MANA | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1202 |
| 01.05.26 | BMZ – WYDO | BMZ | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1212 |
| 01.05.26 | Lavked – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.16 | 10 | won | +12 | 1203 |
| 01.05.26 | Abyssal – FURY | Abyssal | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1191 |
| 01.05.26 | JiJieHao – Wings of Freedom | Wings of Freedom | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1153 |
| 01.05.26 | BOSS – Aether | BOSS | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1173 |
| 01.05.26 | HereWeGoAgain – Crashers | Crashers | 1.96 | 20 | won | +19 | 1183 |
| 30.04.26 | Vitality – G2 | G2 | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1164 |
| 30.04.26 | CYBERSHOKE – aAa | CYBERSHOKE | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 1174 |
| 30.04.26 | MANA – ASTRAL | MANA | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1103 |
| 30.04.26 | The Huns – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1143 |
| 30.04.26 | Walczaki – HYPERSPIRIT | HYPERSPIRIT | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1163 |
| 30.04.26 | HEROIC Academy – Oxuji | Oxuji | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1173 |
| 30.04.26 | ZEVS – BMZ | BMZ | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1155 |
| 30.04.26 | 9INE – BET-M | BET-M | 1.95 | 80 | won | +76 | 1165 |
| 30.04.26 | Wings of Freedom – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1089 |
| 30.04.26 | Legion – Unitronics | Legion | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1129 |
| 30.04.26 | OverKnight – Shimmer | OverKnight | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1149 |
| 30.04.26 | Bounty Hunters – Keyd Stars | Bounty Hunters | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1159 |
| 30.04.26 | Imperial – Fake do Biru | Imperial | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1150 |
| 29.04.26 | Players – R2 | R2 | 1.89 | 160 | won | +142 | 1140 |
| 29.04.26 | Vitality – FUT | FUT | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 999 |
| 29.04.26 | KOLESIE – Walczaki | KOLESIE | 2.08 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1079 |
| 29.04.26 | PsychoFace – Dripmen | Dripmen | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1119 |
| 29.04.26 | The QUBE – Rare Atom | The QUBE | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1139 |
| 29.04.26 | TYLOO – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.95 | 320 | won | +305 | 1149 |
| 29.04.26 | ASTRAL – Clutchain fe | Clutchain fe | 1.96 | 160 | lost | -160 | 844 |
| 29.04.26 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER – Abyssal | Abyssal | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1004 |
| 29.04.26 | illwill – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1084 |
| 29.04.26 | MIBR Academy – LP | LP | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1124 |
| 29.04.26 | GameHunters – ShindeN | GameHunters | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1144 |
| 28.04.26 | Vasco – DAMAJUANA | Vasco | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1154 |
| 28.04.26 | Just Players – INOX Division | Just Players | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1135 |
| 28.04.26 | TNC – GenOne | GenOne | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1145 |
| 28.04.26 | Alter Ego – Last Bullet | Last Bullet | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1136 |
| 28.04.26 | BMZ – The QUBE | The QUBE | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1127 |
| 28.04.26 | BORING PLAYERS – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1118 |
| 28.04.26 | Time Waves – low cortisol | low cortisol | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1109 |
| 28.04.26 | Surge – F5 | Surge | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1092 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.