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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1000u
ROI
-22.5%
win rate
50%
bets
111
drawdown
100%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Martingale

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Flat (10 units)61945%-388-6.3%50.3%Select
1% of bankroll61945%-395-6.8%49.8%Select
2% of bankroll61945%-796-7.2%92.5%Select
Martingale11150%-1000-22.5%100%Select
5% of bankroll61945%-1928-8.4%183.6%Select
10% of bankroll61945%-3237-9.8%244.4%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 111, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
29.05.269z – FaZe9z1.89221lost-2210
29.05.26Rune Eaters – HOTURune Eaters2.10640lost-640221
29.05.26WAZABI – AtreidesWAZABI2.19320lost-320861
29.05.26HOTU – PCIFICPCIFIC1.96160lost-1601181
28.05.26Nemesis – TDKNemesis1.9580lost-801341
28.05.26BESTIA – GalorysBESTIA1.9740lost-401421
28.05.26Betclic – Eternal FireBetclic2.0920lost-201461
28.05.26Nuclear TigeRES – K27K271.9410lost-101481
28.05.26KOLESIE – GenOneKOLESIE1.9710won+101491
28.05.26HEROIC – 9z9z1.9510won+91481
28.05.26Young Ninjas – WAZABIWAZABI1.9940won+401472
28.05.26Oramond – EntropyEntropy2.0120lost-201432
28.05.26Tricked – Just PlayersTricked2.2110lost-101452
28.05.26aAa – UNiTYUNiTY1.9410won+91462
28.05.26Project 91 – WAZABIProject 912.1640won+461453
27.05.26Young Ninjas – Project 91Project 911.9520lost-201406
27.05.26brazylijski luz – White TigersWhite Tigers2.0010lost-101426
27.05.26Galorys – LPGalorys2.0820won+221436
27.05.269z – Sharks9z1.8910lost-101415
27.05.26Oxuji – K27K272.0310won+101425
27.05.26Young Ninjas – LilmixYoung Ninjas1.9780won+771414
27.05.26Project 91 – VexarProject 912.0940lost-401337
27.05.26ARCRED – CYBERSHOKECYBERSHOKE1.9420lost-201377
27.05.26Rebels – Bushido WildcatsRebels1.9610lost-101397
27.05.263DMAX – magicmagic1.8910won+91407
27.05.26ALGO – PrestigeALGO2.0610won+111398
27.05.26M80 – Iowa StormboarM802.02160won+1631387
26.05.26AM – Lazer CatsLazer Cats2.1880lost-801225
26.05.26Falcons Force – brazylijski luzFalcons Force2.1340lost-401305
26.05.26ARCRED – 163NEWS163NEWS1.8920lost-201345
25.05.26ALGO – Just PlayersALGO2.1410lost-101365
25.05.26Phantom – BRUTEPhantom2.0810won+111375
25.05.26Leo – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity1.9810won+101364
25.05.26Hashiras – NEW VISIONNEW VISION1.9910won+101354
25.05.26TNC – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.1410won+111344
25.05.26EC BANGA – Julie&CieJulie&Cie1.9520won+191333
25.05.26Athlon – OxujiAthlon1.9710lost-101314
25.05.26Nuclear TigeRES – OxujiNuclear TigeRES2.0640won+421324
25.05.26SportsBetExpert – ex-Aetherex-Aether1.8920lost-201281
24.05.26Bounty Hunters – Keyd StarsKeyd Stars1.9510lost-101301
24.05.26EYEBALLERS – AllianceAlliance1.8940won+361311
24.05.26LP – UNO MILLEUNO MILLE2.0220lost-201276
24.05.26megoshort – ASTRALmegoshort2.0210lost-101296
24.05.26LP – Keyd StarsLP1.9610won+101306
23.05.26Fake do Biru – GalorysGalorys1.9510won+101296
23.05.26Acend – Inner CircleInner Circle2.1610won+121287
23.05.26Fortress – Sashi AcademyFortress1.9580won+761275
23.05.26ex-RUBY – GenOneGenOne1.9140lost-401199
23.05.26EAC – Rune EatersEAC2.0320lost-201239
23.05.26Eternal Fire – OramondOramond1.9510lost-101259
23.05.26SAW – EnjoyEnjoy2.0210won+101269
23.05.26Oxuji – Spirit Academy BlackOxuji2.0210won+101259
23.05.26Acend – WildcardWildcard2.0910won+111249
23.05.26100 Thieves – Eternal 21100 Thieves1.9510won+101238
23.05.26Bushido Wildcats – Just PlayersBushido Wildcats2.0020won+201228
23.05.26Sashi Academy – Strael BoraStrael Bora1.8910lost-101208
23.05.26UNO MILLE – ALKAUNO MILLE1.9610won+101218
23.05.26Gaimin Gladiators – Inner CircleInner Circle1.96320won+3081209
22.05.26WeClear – Spirit Academy BlackWeClear1.89160lost-160901
22.05.26Wildcard – Inner CircleInner Circle1.9680lost-801061
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.