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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1255u
ROI
-10.3%
win rate
42%
bets
1371
drawdown
127.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-136u
period 6top-up-339u
period 5top-up-308u
period 4profit withdrawn+7u
period 3top-up-186u
period 2top-up-205u
period 1top-up-89u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8741%-846-25.3%88%Select
1% of bankroll137142%-1255-10.3%127.9%Select
Flat (10 units)137142%-1369-10%139.7%Select
2% of bankroll137142%-2294-10.7%232.4%Select
5% of bankroll137142%-4411-12.1%445.7%Select
10% of bankroll137142%-6076-15.8%610%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1371, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.059won+9-255
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.019lost-9-264
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.299won+11-255
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.119lost-9-266
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.049won+9-257
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.119lost-9-266
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.999lost-9-258
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.969lost-9-249
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.969won+8-240
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.619lost-9-248
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.129won+18-240
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.209won+10-258
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+12-268
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.978lost-8-280
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.559lost-9-272
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.108won+9-263
10.10.26Elusive – MarsborneElusive3.159lost-9-273
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.499lost-9-264
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.099lost-9-255
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.519lost-9-247
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.109won+10-238
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.709lost-9-247
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGKZG2.389lost-9-239
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.019won+9-230
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonIsurus2.089lost-9-239
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.279won+11-230
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.299lost-9-241
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoMOUZ NXT2.619won+14-232
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.349lost-9-246
09.10.26Acend – NexusAcend2.019lost-9-237
09.10.26Saint Sinners – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT2.139lost-9-228
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.249won+11-219
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.709lost-9-230
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.089won+18-221
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.059lost-9-240
09.10.26Chicken Coop – DETONATEDETONATE1.979lost-9-231
09.10.26Grêmio – YawaraGrêmio2.059lost-9-222
09.10.26Isurus – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars1.939won+8-213
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.999won+9-221
08.10.26Lilmix – Fire FluxLilmix4.109lost-9-230
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerPrivateer3.789lost-9-221
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.079won+10-212
08.10.26EAC – PUREEAC2.129lost-9-221
08.10.26CYBERSHOKE – NexusNexus1.969won+9-212
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXTHE UNIT1.959lost-9-221
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya1.969lost-9-212
08.10.26Rare Atom – Just SwingJust Swing2.379won+12-203
08.10.26Legion – NasLegion2.299lost-9-215
08.10.26Enjoy – 666666662.509won+14-206
08.10.26OG – SangalOG2.249lost-9-219
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.199lost-9-210
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.029won+9-201
08.10.26Reign Above – Overtake SectorReign Above1.939lost-9-210
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.909won+8-201
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars2.049won+9-210
08.10.26Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.699lost-9-219
07.10.26Sangal – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior2.819won+16-210
07.10.26RBLS – FamalicãoFamalicão2.409lost-9-226
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECIberian Soul2.409won+12-217
07.10.26Just Players – HYPERSPIRITHYPERSPIRIT2.409lost-9-229
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.