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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-3510u
ROI
-7.1%
win rate
44%
bets
1374
drawdown
351.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-287u
period 6top-up-655u
period 5top-up-96u
period 4top-up-709u
period 3top-up-656u
period 2top-up-652u
period 1top-up-455u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Flat (10 units)137444%-694-5.1%76.4%Select
1% of bankroll137444%-713-5.5%77.3%Select
Martingale8740%-940-26.7%95.4%Select
2% of bankroll137444%-1446-5.9%152.9%Select
5% of bankroll137444%-3510-7.1%351.1%Select
10% of bankroll137444%-5765-9.3%554.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1374, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9838lost-38-2510
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.5739lost-39-2472
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.4242lost-42-2433
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.4139won+55-2391
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.0141lost-41-2446
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.2938won+49-2405
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1140lost-40-2455
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.0438won+40-2414
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1140lost-40-2454
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9943lost-43-2414
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9645lost-45-2371
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9643won+41-2326
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6145lost-45-2367
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1241won+86-2322
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6443lost-43-2409
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4540won+58-2366
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9742lost-42-2424
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5544lost-44-2382
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.1042won+46-2337
10.10.26Elusive – MarsborneElusive3.1544lost-44-2384
10.10.26Wildcard – Last Dance USLast Dance US2.1346lost-46-2339
10.10.26Bebop – 6666Bebop2.0949lost-49-2293
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1046won+51-2244
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakMindfreak2.5149lost-49-2295
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsmadlikewizards2.7051lost-51-2246
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEDETONATE2.0149won+50-2195
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGKZG2.3851lost-51-2244
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9854lost-54-2193
10.10.26Galorys – Turma do PagodeGalorys1.9052won+46-2139
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritFalcons2.2955lost-55-2185
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoMOUZ NXT2.6151won+82-2130
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZFURIA2.3453lost-53-2212
09.10.26Acend – NexusAcend2.0156lost-56-2159
09.10.26BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis WarriorsBORING PLAYERS2.1359lost-59-2103
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSGamerLegion2.2456won+69-2044
09.10.26HOTU – AcendAcend2.7058lost-58-2113
09.10.26mellren – BebopBebop3.0853won+110-2054
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8948won+92-2164
09.10.26Villainous – Reign AboveVillainous2.2046won+55-2256
09.10.26LP – Turma do PagodeLP2.2943won+55-2310
09.10.26Bounty Hunters – ALKAALKA1.9645lost-45-2366
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresG2 Ares1.9943won+43-2320
08.10.26FaZe – SangalFaZe2.5840won+63-2363
08.10.26SINNERS – Black PhoenixSINNERS1.9742lost-42-2426
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0740won+43-2384
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5642lost-42-2427
08.10.26Azuolas – MisaAzuolas2.4344lost-44-2385
08.10.26BERG – mellrenBERG3.3246lost-46-2341
08.10.26bLight blue – BORING PLAYERSbLight blue1.9449lost-49-2294
08.10.26Lynn Vision – Chinggis WarriorsLynn Vision1.9147won+43-2245
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8143won+77-2288
08.10.26Enjoy – 666666662.5040won+60-2366
08.10.26G2 Ares – RBLSG2 Ares2.0538won+40-2425
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansBanda Chuya2.1940lost-40-2465
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorNuclear TigeRES2.0238won+39-2425
08.10.26Wanted Goons – Iowa StormboarWanted Goons2.9340lost-40-2464
08.10.26Isurus – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.0742lost-42-2424
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKAALKA1.9040won+36-2382
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd Starsex-Keyd Stars2.0438won+40-2418
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsFamalicão2.5540lost-40-2458
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.