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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2336u
ROI
-10.1%
win rate
42%
bets
2823
drawdown
232.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-446u
period 6top-up-387u
period 5top-up-292u
period 4top-up-309u
period 3top-up-294u
period 2top-up-397u
period 1top-up-211u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282342%-2336-10.1%232.4%Select
Flat (10 units)282342%-2721-9.6%270.6%Select
2% of bankroll282342%-3988-10.5%393.6%Select
5% of bankroll282342%-6282-10.8%605.8%Select
10% of bankroll282342%-6929-9.4%644.6%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2823, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.576lost-6-1336
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.426lost-6-1330
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.196lost-6-1324
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.676won+9-1319
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.906lost-6-1328
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.416won+8-1322
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.216lost-6-1330
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.096won+6-1325
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.786lost-6-1331
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.016lost-6-1325
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.296won+7-1319
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.116lost-6-1327
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.906lost-6-1321
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.166lost-6-1315
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.306lost-6-1309
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.046won+6-1303
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.116lost-6-1309
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.996lost-6-1304
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.106lost-6-1298
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.966won+6-1292
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.266lost-6-1297
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.016lost-6-1291
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.696lost-6-1285
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.096lost-6-1279
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.686lost-6-1273
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.186lost-6-1267
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.996lost-6-1261
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.456lost-6-1254
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.046lost-6-1248
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.026won+7-1241
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.546lost-6-1248
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.047lost-7-1242
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.967lost-7-1235
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.967won+6-1228
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.617lost-7-1235
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.126won+14-1228
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.407lost-7-1242
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.647lost-7-1235
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.977lost-7-1229
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.457won+10-1222
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.977lost-7-1231
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.527lost-7-1225
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.907lost-7-1218
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.317lost-7-1211
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.547won+10-1204
11.10.26benched gods – IllyriansIllyrians1.927won+6-1215
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.147won+8-1221
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.147lost-7-1229
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.077lost-7-1222
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.077won+7-1215
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.247won+8-1222
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.257lost-7-1230
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.147lost-7-1224
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.957won+6-1217
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.107won+7-1223
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.927won+6-1231
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.026won+7-1237
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.967lost-7-1243
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.837lost-7-1237
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.377lost-7-1230
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.