Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-183u
ROI
-0.4%
win rate
47%
bets
1245
drawdown
196.4%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-792u
period 3profit withdrawn+2020u
period 2top-up-550u
period 1top-up-861u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1245 | 47% | -183 | -0.4% | 196.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1245 | 47% | -242 | -2.1% | 55.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1245 | 47% | -310 | -2.5% | 58.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1245 | 47% | -353 | -1.7% | 101.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1245 | 47% | -667 | -1.3% | 254.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 91 | 45% | -1000 | -30.6% | 100% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1245, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 11 | lost | -11 | 817 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 10 | won | +15 | 828 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 813 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 802 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 812 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 9 | won | +9 | 804 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Legacy | 1.90 | 9 | won | +8 | 795 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 9 | lost | -9 | 787 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.17 | 10 | lost | -10 | 796 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | GamerLegion | 2.41 | 10 | lost | -10 | 806 |
| 19.08.26 | Drip Too Hard – HYPERSPIRIT | Drip Too Hard | 2.16 | 11 | lost | -11 | 816 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 11 | lost | -11 | 827 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 11 | won | +11 | 839 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 827 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 10 | won | +17 | 817 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 9 | won | +11 | 800 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 9 | won | +10 | 790 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Entropy | 2.16 | 9 | lost | -9 | 780 |
| 19.08.26 | SAW Youngsters – ex-MANA | SAW Youngsters | 1.92 | 9 | won | +8 | 789 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 9 | lost | -9 | 781 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | Misa | 1.98 | 10 | lost | -10 | 790 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | HAVU | 1.94 | 9 | won | +9 | 799 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 9 | won | +9 | 791 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 8 | won | +13 | 782 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.96 | 8 | won | +7 | 768 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 7 | won | +7 | 761 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | DONSTU | 2.02 | 8 | lost | -8 | 754 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 8 | lost | -8 | 762 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | 770 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | Strael Bora | 1.91 | 9 | lost | -9 | 779 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 1.98 | 9 | lost | -9 | 788 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 10 | lost | -10 | 797 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 807 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 10 | won | +13 | 817 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 805 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.46 | 11 | lost | -11 | 815 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Permitta | 2.77 | 11 | lost | -11 | 826 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.15 | 12 | lost | -12 | 837 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 11 | won | +12 | 849 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.23 | 12 | lost | -12 | 837 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | NEW VISION | 2.10 | 13 | lost | -13 | 849 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.95 | 12 | won | +11 | 862 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | DragonClaw | 2.72 | 13 | lost | -13 | 850 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 12 | won | +20 | 863 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.02 | 11 | won | +11 | 843 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.21 | 12 | lost | -12 | 832 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 12 | lost | -12 | 844 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 13 | lost | -13 | 856 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 14 | lost | -14 | 869 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | Honvéd | 2.06 | 14 | lost | -14 | 883 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 14 | won | +16 | 897 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 14 | lost | -14 | 881 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 15 | lost | -15 | 895 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | HAVU | 2.19 | 14 | won | +17 | 910 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.08 | 15 | lost | -15 | 893 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Vitality | 1.94 | 14 | won | +13 | 908 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 15 | lost | -15 | 895 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 16 | lost | -16 | 910 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 17 | lost | -17 | 925 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | BIG | 2.07 | 18 | lost | -18 | 942 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.