Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-178u
ROI
-1.4%
win rate
48%
bets
1249
drawdown
46.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-208u
period 3profit withdrawn+85u
period 2top-up-188u
period 1profit withdrawn+134u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1249 | 48% | -178 | -1.4% | 46.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1249 | 48% | -193 | -1.6% | 45.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1249 | 48% | -414 | -1.8% | 71.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 77 | 51% | -1000 | -26.4% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1249 | 48% | -1235 | -2.4% | 112.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1249 | 48% | -2772 | -3.8% | 170.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1249, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 822 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 10 | won | +15 | 832 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.15 | 10 | won | +11 | 818 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.37 | 10 | lost | -10 | 806 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 816 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 826 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 816 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 10 | lost | -10 | 826 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 836 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Raccoons | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 827 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | GamerLegion | 2.41 | 10 | lost | -10 | 837 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.98 | 10 | won | +10 | 847 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Honvéd | 2.81 | 10 | won | +18 | 837 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Metizport | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 819 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 809 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 10 | won | +18 | 819 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | Permitta | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 802 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 10 | won | +12 | 812 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Mai Tai | 2.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 800 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Entropy | 2.16 | 10 | lost | -10 | 810 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 820 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | G2 Ares | 2.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 810 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 10 | won | +11 | 820 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | HAVU | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 809 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 10 | won | +11 | 800 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 789 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Fortress | 2.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 799 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 809 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 819 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 829 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Misa | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 839 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 849 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 840 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 10 | won | +14 | 850 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | 836 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | Bebop | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 846 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | Fortress | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 856 |
| 18.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | G2 Ares | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 866 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 876 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 886 |
| 17.08.26 | Raccoons – Fire Flux | Raccoons | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 896 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | BERG | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 887 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Inner Circle Academy | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 897 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 887 |
| 17.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – DragonClaw | DragonClaw | 2.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 877 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 887 |
| 16.08.26 | eternal premium – Phantom Academy | eternal premium | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 877 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 10 | lost | -10 | 887 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 897 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 10 | lost | -10 | 907 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | Honvéd | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 917 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 10 | won | +12 | 927 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | magic | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 915 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.63 | 10 | won | +16 | 905 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | HAVU | 2.19 | 10 | won | +12 | 889 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Vitality | 1.94 | 10 | won | +9 | 877 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 10 | lost | -10 | 868 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 878 |
| 16.08.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 2.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 888 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 898 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.