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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1869u
ROI
-7.8%
win rate
43%
bets
2828
drawdown
186.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-348u
period 6top-up-419u
period 5top-up-204u
period 4top-up-146u
period 3top-up-159u
period 2top-up-323u
period 1top-up-270u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale4134%-1000-43.5%100%Select
1% of bankroll282843%-1869-7.8%186.1%Select
Flat (10 units)282843%-2069-7.3%206%Select
2% of bankroll282843%-3342-8.2%330.1%Select
5% of bankroll282843%-5857-9%565.1%Select
10% of bankroll282843%-6897-8.9%641.7%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2828, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FOKUS – YounglingsYounglings2.347lost-7-869
14.10.26Black Phoenix – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.037lost-7-862
14.10.26fnatic – HOTUfnatic2.037won+7-856
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.927won+6-862
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.987lost-7-868
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.577lost-7-862
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticfnatic1.937lost-7-855
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.197lost-7-848
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.677won+11-842
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.907lost-7-853
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.417won+9-846
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.217lost-7-855
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.097won+7-849
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.787lost-7-856
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.017lost-7-849
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.297won+9-842
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.117lost-7-851
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.907lost-7-844
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.047lost-7-837
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.307lost-7-831
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.047won+7-824
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.117lost-7-831
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.997lost-7-824
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.107lost-7-817
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.967won+7-810
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.187lost-7-816
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.017lost-7-809
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.697lost-7-802
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.097lost-7-795
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.687lost-7-788
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.187lost-7-780
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.458lost-8-773
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.998lost-8-765
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.048lost-8-757
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.028won+8-750
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.558lost-8-758
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.068won+8-750
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.968lost-8-758
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.188lost-8-750
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.098lost-8-742
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.128won+16-735
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.408lost-8-751
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.208won+9-743
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.918won+7-752
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.978lost-8-759
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+11-751
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.528lost-8-762
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.908lost-8-755
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.318lost-8-747
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.548won+12-739
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.558lost-8-751
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148won+9-743
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.148lost-8-752
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.078lost-8-744
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.248won+10-736
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.258lost-8-746
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.208lost-8-738
11.10.26FlyQuest – KZGKZG2.818lost-8-730
11.10.26Bounty Hunters – LPLP1.918won+7-722
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.108won+9-730
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.