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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1944u
ROI
-8.3%
win rate
43%
bets
2822
drawdown
194.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-387u
period 6top-up-551u
period 5top-up-340u
period 4top-up-97u
period 3top-up-120u
period 2top-up-314u
period 1top-up-136u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale40445%-846-4.4%93.2%Select
1% of bankroll282243%-1944-8.3%194.2%Select
Flat (10 units)282243%-2293-8.1%229.3%Select
2% of bankroll282243%-3328-8.6%329.5%Select
5% of bankroll282243%-5583-9.1%539.1%Select
10% of bankroll282243%-6745-8.9%427.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2822, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.576lost-6-944
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.196lost-6-938
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.676won+10-931
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.416won+9-942
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.906lost-6-950
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.216lost-6-944
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.096won+7-938
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.786lost-6-945
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.016lost-6-938
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.296won+8-932
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.116lost-6-940
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.906lost-6-934
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.166lost-6-928
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.906lost-6-921
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.046won+7-915
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.116lost-6-921
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.996lost-6-915
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.107lost-7-909
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.957lost-7-902
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.267lost-7-895
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.017lost-7-889
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.697lost-7-882
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.097lost-7-875
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.687lost-7-868
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.187lost-7-861
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.457lost-7-854
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.997lost-7-847
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.047lost-7-840
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.027won+7-833
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.547lost-7-840
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.067won+8-833
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.967lost-7-840
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.967won+7-833
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.617lost-7-840
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.127won+15-833
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.407lost-7-848
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.647lost-7-841
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.977lost-7-833
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.977lost-7-826
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.457won+11-819
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.527lost-7-829
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.907lost-7-822
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.317lost-7-814
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.547won+11-807
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.557lost-7-818
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.147won+8-811
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.077lost-7-819
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.148lost-8-812
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.077won+8-804
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.247won+9-812
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.207lost-7-821
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148lost-8-814
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.957won+7-807
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.107won+8-814
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.927won+7-822
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.027won+7-828
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.967lost-7-836
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.837lost-7-828
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.377lost-7-821
10.10.26Holy Cannoli – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.177won+9-814
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.