Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-703u
ROI
-9.1%
win rate
41%
bets
172
drawdown
80.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+297u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 172 | 41% | -703 | -9.1% | 80.4% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 2823 | 43% | -2166 | -9.5% | 216.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2823 | 43% | -2523 | -8.9% | 252.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2823 | 43% | -3716 | -10% | 367.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2823 | 43% | -6033 | -11.2% | 582.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2823 | 43% | -6869 | -12.7% | 639.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 172, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03.05.26 | Nemesis – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.08 | 586 | lost | -586 | 297 |
| 03.05.26 | Dripmen – NEW VISION | Dripmen | 1.95 | 320 | lost | -320 | 882 |
| 03.05.26 | Gentle Mates – magic | Gentle Mates | 1.94 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1202 |
| 03.05.26 | Rooster – Last Bullet | Rooster | 2.15 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1362 |
| 03.05.26 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1442 |
| 03.05.26 | R2 – Crashers | Crashers | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1482 |
| 03.05.26 | Imperial Academy – AaB | AaB | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1502 |
| 03.05.26 | JiJieHao – BORING PLAYERS | JiJieHao | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 1512 |
| 03.05.26 | Voca – Zomblers | Voca | 2.14 | 160 | won | +182 | 1503 |
| 03.05.26 | ELITES – Isurus | ELITES | 1.94 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1321 |
| 03.05.26 | Zomblers – InControl | InControl | 2.02 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1401 |
| 02.05.26 | Vitality – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1441 |
| 02.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – INFINITE | Johnny Speeds | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1461 |
| 02.05.26 | SPARTA – fnatic | SPARTA | 2.03 | 20 | won | +21 | 1471 |
| 02.05.26 | INOX Division – MANA | MANA | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1451 |
| 02.05.26 | ASTRAL – Bebop | Bebop | 2.01 | 40 | won | +40 | 1461 |
| 02.05.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Lavked | CYBERSHOKE | 2.14 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1420 |
| 02.05.26 | UNiTY – PsychoFace | PsychoFace | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1440 |
| 02.05.26 | G2 Ares – Johnny Speeds | Johnny Speeds | 2.02 | 320 | won | +326 | 1450 |
| 02.05.26 | INFINITE – Lilmix | Lilmix | 2.01 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1124 |
| 02.05.26 | INOX Division – Aurora Young Blud | Aurora Young Blud | 2.11 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1284 |
| 02.05.26 | Clutchain fe – home | Clutchain fe | 2.03 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1364 |
| 02.05.26 | DAMAJUANA – GameHunters | GameHunters | 1.94 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1404 |
| 02.05.26 | EC BANGA – M1X KS | EC BANGA | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1424 |
| 02.05.26 | ASTRAL – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.93 | 10 | won | +9 | 1434 |
| 02.05.26 | Wings of Freedom – BORING PLAYERS | BORING PLAYERS | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1425 |
| 02.05.26 | AaB – BIG Academy | AaB | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1406 |
| 02.05.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 1416 |
| 02.05.26 | 5star – JiJieHao | 5star | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1407 |
| 02.05.26 | Lilmix – Famalicão | Lilmix | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1388 |
| 02.05.26 | GenOne – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.95 | 80 | won | +76 | 1398 |
| 02.05.26 | ALGO – Imperial Academy | ALGO | 2.03 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1321 |
| 02.05.26 | ex-CSDIILIT – The Last Resort | ex-CSDIILIT | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1361 |
| 02.05.26 | ZEVS – Just Swing | ZEVS | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1381 |
| 02.05.26 | Wings of Freedom – Nas | Wings of Freedom | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1391 |
| 02.05.26 | Voca – Wildcard | Voca | 2.38 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1372 |
| 02.05.26 | MTX – ROUNDS | ROUNDS | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1382 |
| 02.05.26 | ELITES – UNO MILLE | UNO MILLE | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1373 |
| 02.05.26 | SAW – MTX | MTX | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1364 |
| 02.05.26 | ShindeN – Bounty Hunters | ShindeN | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1347 |
| 01.05.26 | G2 Ares – MTX | G2 Ares | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1357 |
| 01.05.26 | G2 – FaZe | FaZe | 1.89 | 160 | won | +142 | 1347 |
| 01.05.26 | Wildcard – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.34 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1205 |
| 01.05.26 | HEROIC Academy – ASTRAL | HEROIC Academy | 2.18 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1285 |
| 01.05.26 | Dripmen – Famalicão | Dripmen | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1325 |
| 01.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – INFINITE | Johnny Speeds | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1345 |
| 01.05.26 | Johnny Speeds – dJ uNT frIENDS | Johnny Speeds | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1355 |
| 01.05.26 | Chaos – Just Swing | Just Swing | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | 1346 |
| 01.05.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – MANA | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1310 |
| 01.05.26 | TYLOO – The Huns | The Huns | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1330 |
| 01.05.26 | UNiTY – TNC | TNC | 2.09 | 80 | won | +87 | 1340 |
| 01.05.26 | Ground Zero – THUNDER dOWNUNDER | Ground Zero | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1253 |
| 01.05.26 | JiJieHao – Wings of Freedom | Wings of Freedom | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1293 |
| 01.05.26 | BOSS – Aether | BOSS | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1313 |
| 01.05.26 | Zomblers – Fisher College | Zomblers | 1.90 | 20 | won | +18 | 1323 |
| 01.05.26 | girl kissers – Incognito | girl kissers | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1305 |
| 01.05.26 | HereWeGoAgain – Crashers | Crashers | 1.96 | 20 | won | +19 | 1315 |
| 01.05.26 | FarmVille – Shimmer | Shimmer | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1296 |
| 01.05.26 | Isurus – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1306 |
| 01.05.26 | Fake do Biru – ShindeN | Fake do Biru | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1287 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.