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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
+283u
ROI
+3%
win rate
49%
bets
290
drawdown
47.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Martingale

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+1283u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale29049%+283+3%47.3%Selected
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
1% of bankroll124347%-315-2.7%65%Select
Flat (10 units)124347%-333-2.7%70.9%Select
2% of bankroll124347%-614-2.8%108.6%Select
5% of bankroll124347%-1576-3.8%175.1%Select
10% of bankroll124347%-3176-7%259.1%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 290, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
01.06.26Ursa – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.00520lost-5201283
01.06.26Project 91 – EntropyProject 911.99320lost-3201803
01.06.26GenOne – DONSTUDONSTU2.21160lost-1602123
31.05.26Chicken Coop – MarsborneMarsborne1.8980lost-802283
31.05.26MANA – INOX DivisionMANA1.9240lost-402363
31.05.26Fluxo – GalorysFluxo1.9720lost-202403
31.05.26Rebels – HAVUHAVU2.0710lost-102423
31.05.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertMarsborne2.0910won+112433
31.05.26TDK – DragonClawDragonClaw2.19160won+1902422
31.05.26WBT – ZOTIXZOTIX1.8980lost-802232
31.05.26UNiTY – ASTRALUNiTY1.9840lost-402312
31.05.26cirahvi – boybandboyband1.8920lost-202352
31.05.26HEROIC Academy – Bushido WildcatsHEROIC Academy2.1810lost-102372
31.05.26Marsborne – Chicken CoopChicken Coop1.9520won+192382
31.05.26Enjoy – G2 AresG2 Ares2.0810lost-102363
31.05.26KOLESIE – DragonClawDragonClaw2.2410won+122373
31.05.26SNITKO – ZOTIXZOTIX1.8940won+352361
31.05.26HOTU – Rune EatersRune Eaters2.2620lost-202325
31.05.26Leo – ASTRALLeo1.9910lost-102345
31.05.26G2 Ares – VexarG2 Ares2.1610won+122355
31.05.26RUSTEC – Young NinjasRUSTEC1.9320won+192344
31.05.26TDK – OGOG1.9010lost-102325
31.05.26Omega – Rune EatersRune Eaters2.2620won+252335
31.05.26Atreides – G2 AresG2 Ares2.0110lost-102310
31.05.26LAG – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert1.8920won+182320
31.05.26Wanted Goons – LAGWanted Goons1.9510lost-102302
31.05.26Marsborne – Reign AboveMarsborne1.9580won+762312
31.05.26F5 – FRZFRZ1.9440lost-402236
30.05.26LAG – absolute cinemaabsolute cinema1.9520lost-202276
30.05.26Wanted Goons – NineFlyNineFly1.8910lost-102296
30.05.26NXG – FRZFRZ1.9610won+102306
30.05.26Yawara – UNO MILLEYawara1.8920won+182296
30.05.26Oramond – CYBERSHOKECYBERSHOKE1.9810lost-102279
30.05.26100 Thieves – NemesisNemesis1.8920won+182289
30.05.26Wanted Goons – Reign AboveWanted Goons1.9510lost-102271
30.05.26ENCE – boybandENCE1.9410won+92281
30.05.26Fluxo – BESTIABESTIA1.9440won+382271
30.05.26Ursa – TNCUrsa2.2620lost-202234
30.05.26WW – Gentle MatesWW2.1110lost-102254
30.05.26M1Z – GENESISGENESIS1.8920won+182264
30.05.26KUUSAMO – cirahviKUUSAMO1.8910lost-102246
30.05.26NineFly – NXGNXG1.8980won+712256
30.05.26F5 – absolute cinemaabsolute cinema1.8940lost-402185
30.05.26LAG – makeSHIFTmakeSHIFT1.8920lost-202225
30.05.26brazylijski luz – Vexarbrazylijski luz1.9810lost-102245
30.05.26Gentle Mates – GenOneGentle Mates1.8910won+92255
30.05.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – FaZeNinjas in Pyjamas2.0210won+102246
30.05.26Tricked – NemigaNemiga1.9020won+182236
30.05.26Young Ninjas – WAZABIWAZABI2.0910lost-102218
30.05.26Phantom – Bushido WildcatsPhantom2.0610won+112228
30.05.26CYBERSHOKE Prospects – AtreidesCYBERSHOKE Prospects1.97160won+1552217
30.05.26WW – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds1.9580lost-802062
30.05.26Oramond – LeoLeo2.0040lost-402142
30.05.26INOX Division – aAaaAa1.9620lost-202182
30.05.26Gentle Mates – Eternal FireEternal Fire1.9210lost-102202
30.05.26ENCE – UNiTYENCE2.0310won+102212
29.05.26OKSUCC – DripmenDripmen2.0920won+222202
29.05.26Young Ninjas – PhantomPhantom1.9310lost-102180
29.05.26Tricked – AMTricked2.0620won+212190
29.05.26magic – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.9410lost-102169
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.