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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2187u
ROI
-9.5%
win rate
43%
bets
2824
drawdown
217.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-309u
period 6top-up-375u
period 5top-up-292u
period 4top-up-309u
period 3top-up-294u
period 2top-up-397u
period 1top-up-211u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282443%-2187-9.5%217.8%Selected
Flat (10 units)282443%-2481-8.8%247.1%Select
2% of bankroll282443%-3810-10%376.2%Select
5% of bankroll282443%-6205-10.9%598.4%Select
10% of bankroll282443%-6925-9.7%644.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2824, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.987lost-7-1187
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.577lost-7-1180
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.427lost-7-1173
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.197lost-7-1166
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.677won+12-1158
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.057won+7-1170
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.417won+10-1178
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.217lost-7-1187
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.097won+8-1180
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.787lost-7-1188
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.017lost-7-1181
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.297won+9-1174
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.117lost-7-1183
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.907lost-7-1176
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.167lost-7-1169
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.307lost-7-1162
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.047won+7-1154
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.997lost-7-1162
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.117lost-7-1155
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.107lost-7-1147
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.957lost-7-1140
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.188lost-8-1132
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.018lost-8-1125
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.698lost-8-1117
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.098lost-8-1110
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.688lost-8-1102
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.188won+9-1094
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.458lost-8-1103
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.998lost-8-1095
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.078won+8-1087
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.028won+8-1096
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.548lost-8-1104
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.068won+8-1096
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.968lost-8-1104
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.968won+7-1096
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.618lost-8-1104
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.128won+16-1096
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.408lost-8-1112
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.918won+7-1104
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.648lost-8-1111
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+11-1104
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.978lost-8-1115
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.528lost-8-1107
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.908lost-8-1099
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.318lost-8-1091
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.548won+12-1083
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.558lost-8-1095
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148won+9-1088
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.078lost-8-1096
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.148lost-8-1089
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.208lost-8-1081
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.248won+10-1073
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.078won+8-1082
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148lost-8-1091
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.108won+9-1083
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.848lost-8-1092
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.928won+7-1084
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.028won+8-1091
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.968lost-8-1099
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.838lost-8-1091
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.