Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-946u
ROI
-2%
win rate
48%
bets
1246
drawdown
161.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-665u
period 3profit withdrawn+966u
period 2top-up-827u
period 1top-up-421u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1246 | 48% | -197 | -1.7% | 54.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1246 | 48% | -206 | -1.7% | 56.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1246 | 48% | -380 | -1.7% | 94.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1246 | 48% | -946 | -2% | 161.8% | Selected |
| Martingale | 166 | 51% | -1000 | -15.5% | 100% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1246 | 48% | -2412 | -3.8% | 201.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1246, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 18 | lost | -18 | 54 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 16 | won | +24 | 71 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.15 | 16 | won | +18 | 47 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Metizport | 1.92 | 15 | won | +14 | 30 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 14 | won | +14 | 16 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.17 | 15 | lost | -15 | 1 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Legacy | 1.90 | 14 | won | +13 | 16 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 15 | lost | -15 | 4 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 16 | lost | -16 | 18 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Raccoons | 2.35 | 17 | lost | -17 | 34 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 1.98 | 16 | won | +15 | 51 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Metizport | 1.92 | 15 | won | +14 | 35 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 14 | won | +15 | 21 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 14 | won | +13 | 7 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 13 | won | +22 | -6 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – EAC | Permitta | 2.09 | 13 | lost | -13 | -29 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 13 | won | +15 | -16 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 13 | lost | -13 | -30 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 13 | won | +12 | -17 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 Ares – ex-Zero Tenacity | G2 Ares | 2.00 | 13 | lost | -13 | -29 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 14 | lost | -14 | -16 |
| 19.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 2.73 | 15 | lost | -15 | -2 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | DONSTU | 2.02 | 15 | lost | -15 | 13 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 15 | won | +13 | 28 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 14 | won | +23 | 15 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.97 | 14 | lost | -14 | -8 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 15 | lost | -15 | 7 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 16 | lost | -16 | 22 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.01 | 15 | won | +15 | 38 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | OG | 1.94 | 14 | won | +14 | 22 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | Strael Bora | 1.91 | 15 | lost | -15 | 9 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 14 | won | +19 | 24 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 15 | lost | -15 | 5 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 14 | won | +20 | 20 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 2.05 | 15 | lost | -15 | 1 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 16 | lost | -16 | 15 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | HAVU | 2.66 | 14 | won | +24 | 31 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 15 | lost | -15 | 7 |
| 17.08.26 | Raccoons – Fire Flux | Raccoons | 1.89 | 15 | won | +13 | 22 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.23 | 15 | lost | -15 | 9 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | NEW VISION | 2.10 | 16 | lost | -16 | 25 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Inner Circle Academy | 1.96 | 15 | won | +15 | 41 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 16 | lost | -16 | 26 |
| 17.08.26 | paiN Academy – QUINTESSÊNCIA | paiN Academy | 2.16 | 17 | lost | -17 | 42 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.02 | 16 | won | +17 | 59 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.21 | 17 | lost | -17 | 43 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 18 | lost | -18 | 60 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 19 | lost | -19 | 78 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 20 | lost | -20 | 96 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | Mai Tai | 2.50 | 18 | won | +28 | 116 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 17 | won | +21 | 88 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | magic | 1.95 | 17 | won | +16 | 67 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.63 | 15 | won | +25 | 52 |
| 16.08.26 | The MongolZ – paiN | paiN | 1.95 | 16 | lost | -16 | 26 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.08 | 17 | lost | -17 | 43 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 18 | lost | -18 | 60 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 19 | lost | -19 | 78 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 20 | lost | -20 | 96 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 21 | lost | -21 | 116 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | BIG | 2.07 | 22 | lost | -22 | 137 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.