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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-6205u
ROI
-10.9%
win rate
43%
bets
2824
drawdown
598.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-891u
period 6top-up-960u
period 5top-up-901u
period 4top-up-900u
period 3top-up-875u
period 2top-up-954u
period 1top-up-726u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale21741%-686-6.7%81.2%Select
1% of bankroll282443%-2187-9.5%217.8%Select
Flat (10 units)282443%-2481-8.8%247.1%Select
2% of bankroll282443%-3810-10%376.2%Select
5% of bankroll282443%-6205-10.9%598.4%Selected
10% of bankroll282443%-6925-9.7%644.2%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2824, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.986lost-6-5205
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.576lost-6-5199
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.426lost-6-5193
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.197lost-7-5187
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.676won+10-5180
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.056won+6-5191
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.415won+8-5197
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.216lost-6-5205
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.095won+6-5199
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.786lost-6-5205
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.016lost-6-5199
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.296won+7-5193
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.116lost-6-5200
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.906lost-6-5194
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.167lost-7-5188
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.307lost-7-5181
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.047won+7-5174
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.997lost-7-5181
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.117lost-7-5174
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.108lost-8-5167
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.958lost-8-5159
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.189lost-9-5151
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.019lost-9-5142
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.6910lost-10-5133
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.0910lost-10-5124
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.6811lost-11-5114
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.1810won+12-5103
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4511lost-11-5115
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.9911lost-11-5104
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.0710won+11-5093
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.0210won+10-5104
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.5411lost-11-5115
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.0610won+11-5104
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.9611lost-11-5115
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.9610won+10-5104
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6111lost-11-5114
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+20-5103
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.4010lost-10-5124
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.9110won+9-5113
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.6410lost-10-5122
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.459won+14-5112
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.9710lost-10-5126
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.5210lost-10-5116
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.9011lost-11-5105
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.3112lost-12-5094
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.5411won+17-5083
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5511lost-11-5099
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1411won+12-5088
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.0711lost-11-5100
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.1412lost-12-5089
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.2012lost-12-5077
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.2412won+15-5065
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.0711won+12-5079
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.1412lost-12-5091
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.1011won+12-5079
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.8412lost-12-5092
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.9211won+10-5080
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.0211won+11-5090
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.9611lost-11-5101
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.8312lost-12-5090
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.