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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-846u
ROI
-4.4%
win rate
45%
bets
404
drawdown
93.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Martingale

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1profit withdrawn+154u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale40445%-846-4.4%93.2%Select
1% of bankroll282243%-1944-8.3%194.2%Select
Flat (10 units)282243%-2293-8.1%229.3%Select
2% of bankroll282243%-3328-8.6%329.5%Select
5% of bankroll282243%-5583-9.1%539.1%Select
10% of bankroll282243%-6745-8.9%427.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 404, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.05.26Lavked – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.26641lost-641154
20.05.26Falcons – M80M802.15640lost-640795
20.05.26The MongolZ – B8The MongolZ1.94320lost-3201435
20.05.26MIBR – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.03160lost-1601755
20.05.26Falcons – BC.GameBC.Game2.2780lost-801915
20.05.26Legacy – NRGNRG2.3840lost-401995
20.05.26MOUZ – TYLOOMOUZ1.9920lost-202035
20.05.26B8 – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.8910lost-102055
20.05.26The MongolZ – Lynn VisionThe MongolZ2.3810won+142065
20.05.26PARIVISION – LiquidPARIVISION1.9610won+102051
20.05.263DMAX – MIBRMIBR1.8910won+92042
20.05.26MIBR Academy – ProcyonProcyon2.1610won+122033
19.05.26FOKUS – OxujiFOKUS2.1910won+122021
19.05.26R2 – METANOIA WolvesMETANOIA Wolves2.0220won+202009
19.05.26ASTRAL – CYBERSHOKE ProspectsASTRAL2.0210lost-101989
19.05.26HOTU – SashiHOTU2.0120won+201999
19.05.26VEXA – UNO MILLEVEXA2.1110lost-101979
18.05.26Galorys – paiN AcademyGalorys1.9810won+101989
18.05.26Oramond – ALGOALGO2.17842won+9831979
18.05.26EAC – GenOneEAC2.04640lost-640996
18.05.26illwill – ex-RUBYillwill2.12320lost-3201636
18.05.26AM – megoshortmegoshort2.07160lost-1601956
18.05.26Nemesis – WalczakiNemesis2.6180lost-802116
18.05.26METANOIA Wolves – paiN AcademyMETANOIA Wolves1.9740lost-402196
17.05.26ALKA – MIBR AcademyMIBR Academy1.8920lost-202236
17.05.26BRUTE – Rune EatersRune Eaters2.0910lost-102256
17.05.26SHISHKA – Endless JourneyEndless Journey1.89160won+1422266
17.05.26Vasco – METANOIA WolvesVasco2.0280lost-802124
17.05.26MASONIC – Inner Circle AcademyMASONIC1.9440lost-402204
17.05.26GenOne – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity1.9120lost-202244
17.05.26R2 – HereWeGoAgainHereWeGoAgain2.0210lost-102264
17.05.26G2 Ares – Falcons ForceFalcons Force2.2310won+122274
17.05.26Spirit – FalconsSpirit1.9020won+182262
17.05.26Inner Circle Academy – BASEMENT BOYSInner Circle Academy2.0010lost-102244
17.05.26Just Players – OlyBetJust Players2.0610won+112254
17.05.26JiJieHao – Lynn VisionLynn Vision2.0240won+412243
16.05.26PURE – HonvédPURE2.0320lost-202202
16.05.26SHISHKA – CYBERSHOKE ProspectsSHISHKA1.9510lost-102222
16.05.26TDK – LavkedTDK2.1110won+112232
16.05.26Inner Circle Academy – HonvédInner Circle Academy1.8910won+92221
16.05.26Lynn Vision – THUNDER dOWNUNDERLynn Vision2.1310won+112212
16.05.26Players – GUARAGUARA1.9420won+192201
16.05.26MASONIC – PUREPURE1.8910lost-102182
16.05.26Honvéd – A Great ChaosHonvéd1.8940won+362192
16.05.26OlyBet – Project 91Project 911.9520lost-202157
16.05.26Inner Circle Academy – NyxonNyxon1.8910lost-102177
16.05.26Team StRoGo – Team BusterTeam Buster1.8910won+92187
16.05.26JiJieHao – TYLOOJiJieHao2.0020won+202178
15.05.26Isurus – ex-KRÜex-KRÜ2.0710lost-102158
15.05.26Atreides – DONSTUDONSTU2.0810won+112168
15.05.26ex-Zero Tenacity – Just PlayersJust Players2.0820won+222157
15.05.26FURIA – FalconsFURIA2.0110lost-102136
15.05.26Misa – Endless JourneyEndless Journey1.8940won+352146
15.05.26BRUTE – FamalicãoFamalicão1.9020lost-202110
15.05.26Johnny Speeds – ex-RUBYJohnny Speeds1.9310lost-102130
15.05.26paiN Academy – ALKAALKA1.9080won+722140
15.05.26Young Ninjas – HashirasHashiras2.0240lost-402068
15.05.26Lavked – fnaticfnatic2.2820lost-202108
15.05.26Spirit – G2G22.0910lost-102128
15.05.26Sashi – OxujiSashi2.1020won+222138
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.