Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-41.3%
win rate
52%
bets
61
drawdown
100%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 1248 | 47% | -261 | -2.1% | 43.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -316 | -2.6% | 43.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -719 | -3.2% | 81.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 61 | 52% | -1000 | -41.3% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -2102 | -4.5% | 183.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -3600 | -5.8% | 252.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 61, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.05.26 | ASTRAL – Project 91 | Project 91 | 1.95 | 630 | lost | -630 | 0 |
| 20.05.26 | SPARTA – GenOne | SPARTA | 2.09 | 320 | lost | -320 | 630 |
| 20.05.26 | Young Ninjas – Misa | Young Ninjas | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 950 |
| 20.05.26 | MIBR – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1110 |
| 20.05.26 | Falcons – BC.Game | BC.Game | 1.95 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1190 |
| 20.05.26 | Legacy – NRG | NRG | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1230 |
| 20.05.26 | B8 – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1250 |
| 20.05.26 | The MongolZ – Lynn Vision | The MongolZ | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 1260 |
| 20.05.26 | 3DMAX – MIBR | MIBR | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1250 |
| 19.05.26 | R2 – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 1.96 | 20 | won | +19 | 1241 |
| 19.05.26 | Oramond – Lavked | Lavked | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1222 |
| 19.05.26 | ASTRAL – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1232 |
| 19.05.26 | 100 Thieves – Nuclear TigeRES | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1222 |
| 19.05.26 | HOTU – Sashi | HOTU | 1.95 | 20 | won | +19 | 1214 |
| 19.05.26 | Bebop – Misa | Misa | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1194 |
| 19.05.26 | PsychoFace – HEROIC Academy | PsychoFace | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1204 |
| 19.05.26 | Eternal Fire – Rune Eaters | Eternal Fire | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1195 |
| 19.05.26 | Nemiga – TDK | Nemiga | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1186 |
| 18.05.26 | Galorys – paiN Academy | Galorys | 2.02 | 10 | won | +10 | 1176 |
| 18.05.26 | Yawara – ex-KRÜ | Yawara | 1.95 | 10 | won | +9 | 1166 |
| 18.05.26 | ex-RUBY – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1157 |
| 18.05.26 | fnatic – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1119 |
| 18.05.26 | GUARA – Vasco | Vasco | 2.09 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1139 |
| 18.05.26 | UNO MILLE – GUARA | UNO MILLE | 1.96 | 10 | won | +10 | 1149 |
| 17.05.26 | ex-KRÜ – BESTIA Academy | ex-KRÜ | 1.96 | 40 | won | +38 | 1139 |
| 17.05.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1101 |
| 17.05.26 | Bounty Hunters – Yawara | Yawara | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1121 |
| 17.05.26 | GenOne – ex-Zero Tenacity | GenOne | 1.89 | 40 | won | +36 | 1131 |
| 17.05.26 | R2 – HereWeGoAgain | HereWeGoAgain | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1095 |
| 17.05.26 | G2 Ares – Falcons Force | G2 Ares | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1115 |
| 17.05.26 | Spirit – Falcons | Spirit | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 1125 |
| 17.05.26 | JiJieHao – Lynn Vision | Lynn Vision | 1.89 | 160 | won | +142 | 1115 |
| 17.05.26 | MOUZ – magic | magic | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 973 |
| 17.05.26 | BetBoom – Natus Vincere | BetBoom | 1.96 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1053 |
| 16.05.26 | BESTIA Academy – Vasco | Vasco | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1093 |
| 16.05.26 | PURE – Honvéd | PURE | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1113 |
| 16.05.26 | A Great Chaos – MASONIC | MASONIC | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1123 |
| 16.05.26 | SHISHKA – CYBERSHOKE Prospects | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 1.89 | 80 | won | +71 | 1114 |
| 16.05.26 | TDK – Lavked | Lavked | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1043 |
| 16.05.26 | Inner Circle Academy – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1083 |
| 16.05.26 | Lynn Vision – THUNDER dOWNUNDER | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1103 |
| 16.05.26 | MASONIC – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1113 |
| 16.05.26 | Players – GUARA | GUARA | 1.95 | 40 | won | +38 | 1103 |
| 16.05.26 | OlyBet – Project 91 | Project 91 | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1065 |
| 16.05.26 | JiJieHao – TYLOO | TYLOO | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1085 |
| 16.05.26 | Team StRoGo – Team Buster | Team Buster | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1095 |
| 16.05.26 | MIBR Academy – Red Feet | MIBR Academy | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1086 |
| 16.05.26 | Natus Vincere – Vitality | Natus Vincere | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1076 |
| 15.05.26 | Isurus – ex-KRÜ | Isurus | 2.02 | 20 | won | +20 | 1067 |
| 15.05.26 | paiN – GamerLegion | paiN | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1046 |
| 15.05.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Just Players | Just Players | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1056 |
| 15.05.26 | FURIA – Falcons | Falcons | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1048 |
| 15.05.26 | Misa – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1039 |
| 15.05.26 | BRUTE – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1021 |
| 15.05.26 | 9z – magic | magic | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1031 |
| 15.05.26 | ORDALUK – Hapoka | Hapoka | 1.89 | 40 | won | +35 | 1022 |
| 14.05.26 | ex-KRÜ – Vasco | Vasco | 1.95 | 20 | lost | -20 | 987 |
| 14.05.26 | LP – Isurus | Isurus | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1007 |
| 14.05.26 | GUARA – METANOIA Wolves | METANOIA Wolves | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1017 |
| 13.05.26 | Betclic – TNC | TNC | 1.89 | 20 | won | +18 | 1008 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.