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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2412u
ROI
-11%
win rate
42%
bets
2821
drawdown
240%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-477u
period 6top-up-517u
period 5top-up-477u
period 4top-up-179u
period 3top-up-262u
period 2top-up-317u
period 1top-up-184u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale17140%-937-11.5%95.1%Select
1% of bankroll282142%-2412-11%240%Select
Flat (10 units)282142%-2946-10.4%292.9%Select
2% of bankroll282142%-3991-11.6%393.9%Select
5% of bankroll282142%-6133-13.3%591.5%Select
10% of bankroll282142%-6888-15.7%640.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2821, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.425lost-5-1412
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.195lost-5-1407
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.905lost-5-1402
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.055won+6-1396
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.215lost-5-1402
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.095won+6-1396
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.785lost-5-1402
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.015lost-5-1397
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.295won+7-1391
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.115lost-5-1398
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.905lost-5-1393
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.046lost-6-1387
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.906lost-6-1382
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.046won+6-1376
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.996lost-6-1382
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.116lost-6-1376
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.106lost-6-1371
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.956lost-6-1365
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.186lost-6-1359
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.016lost-6-1354
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.696lost-6-1348
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.096lost-6-1342
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.686lost-6-1336
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.186won+7-1330
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.456lost-6-1337
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.996lost-6-1331
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.046lost-6-1325
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.026won+6-1318
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.546lost-6-1325
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.046lost-6-1318
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.966lost-6-1312
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.966won+6-1306
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.616lost-6-1312
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.126won+13-1306
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.406lost-6-1319
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.916won+6-1312
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.206won+7-1318
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.456won+9-1325
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.976lost-6-1334
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.526lost-6-1328
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.906lost-6-1322
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.316lost-6-1316
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.546won+10-1309
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.556lost-6-1319
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.146won+7-1313
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.076lost-6-1320
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.146lost-6-1313
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.206lost-6-1307
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.246won+8-1301
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEWanted Goons2.256lost-6-1309
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.146lost-6-1302
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.106won+7-1296
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.956won+6-1303
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.926won+6-1309
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.026won+6-1315
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.966lost-6-1321
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.836lost-6-1315
10.10.26Elusive – MarsborneElusive3.156lost-6-1308
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.376lost-6-1302
10.10.26MOUZ – SpiritMOUZ2.256won+8-1296
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.