Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-132u
ROI
-1.1%
win rate
48%
bets
1241
drawdown
38.7%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-201u
period 3top-up-148u
period 2top-up-114u
period 1profit withdrawn+331u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 1241 | 48% | +927 | +0.8% | 76.7% | Select |
| Martingale | 381 | 53% | +672 | +5.8% | 46.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1241 | 48% | +71 | +0.1% | 73.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1241 | 48% | -132 | -1.1% | 38.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1241 | 48% | -153 | -1.2% | 43.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1241 | 48% | -202 | -0.9% | 58.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1241, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | 868 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | Vitality | 2.14 | 8 | won | +9 | 876 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.38 | 8 | lost | -8 | 867 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 8 | won | +8 | 875 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 8 | lost | -8 | 867 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.16 | 8 | lost | -8 | 875 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | GamerLegion | 2.41 | 8 | lost | -8 | 883 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 2.02 | 8 | won | +8 | 892 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | The Last Resort | 1.98 | 8 | lost | -8 | 883 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.99 | 8 | won | +8 | 892 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 8 | won | +8 | 883 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.02 | 8 | won | +8 | 875 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | Astralis | 2.06 | 8 | lost | -8 | 867 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Bushido Wildcats | Black Phoenix | 2.78 | 8 | won | +14 | 875 |
| 19.08.26 | Entropy – Fire Flux | Entropy | 2.16 | 8 | lost | -8 | 861 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 8 | lost | -8 | 869 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.95 | 8 | won | +8 | 877 |
| 19.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Endless Journey | Endless Journey | 2.73 | 8 | lost | -8 | 870 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 8 | lost | -8 | 878 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 8 | won | +9 | 886 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | HAVU | 1.94 | 8 | won | +7 | 877 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.97 | 8 | lost | -8 | 870 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | Color | 1.91 | 8 | won | +7 | 878 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Entropy | 2.68 | 8 | won | +13 | 870 |
| 18.08.26 | Entropy – PCIFIC | Entropy | 2.11 | 8 | lost | -8 | 857 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | Leo | 2.01 | 8 | lost | -8 | 865 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | 873 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 8 | lost | -8 | 881 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 8 | won | +10 | 889 |
| 18.08.26 | Strael Bora – The Last Resort | Strael Bora | 1.91 | 8 | lost | -8 | 879 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 8 | lost | -8 | 887 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | Fortress | 2.03 | 8 | lost | -8 | 895 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Entropy | 1.92 | 8 | lost | -8 | 904 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Permitta | Permitta | 2.77 | 9 | lost | -9 | 912 |
| 17.08.26 | Enjoy – HAVU | HAVU | 2.66 | 8 | won | +14 | 921 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.86 | 8 | lost | -8 | 907 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | G2 Ares | 2.05 | 8 | won | +9 | 915 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | BERG | 1.96 | 8 | lost | -8 | 907 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | Atreides | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | 915 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | UNiTY | 1.95 | 8 | won | +8 | 924 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 915 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 8 | won | +14 | 924 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | Legacy | 2.02 | 8 | won | +9 | 910 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.16 | 8 | lost | -8 | 901 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.97 | 8 | won | +8 | 910 |
| 16.08.26 | G2 Ares – Permitta | G2 Ares | 1.95 | 8 | lost | -8 | 902 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 8 | lost | -8 | 910 |
| 16.08.26 | Honvéd – mellren | Honvéd | 2.06 | 9 | lost | -9 | 918 |
| 16.08.26 | magic – 9z | magic | 2.03 | 8 | won | +9 | 927 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 9 | lost | -9 | 918 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 2.64 | 8 | won | +14 | 927 |
| 16.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fortress | Fortress | 3.32 | 9 | lost | -9 | 913 |
| 16.08.26 | FORZE Reload – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.08 | 9 | lost | -9 | 922 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | HAVU | 2.19 | 9 | won | +10 | 930 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Nexus | 2.41 | 9 | lost | -9 | 920 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 9 | lost | -9 | 929 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 9 | lost | -9 | 937 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | BIG | 2.07 | 9 | lost | -9 | 946 |
| 15.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Galorys | Keyd Stars | 1.92 | 9 | won | +8 | 955 |
| 15.08.26 | eternal premium – Revise | eternal premium | 2.04 | 9 | lost | -9 | 947 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.