Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-2102u
ROI
-4.5%
win rate
47%
bets
1248
drawdown
183.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-586u
period 3top-up-566u
period 2top-up-498u
period 1top-up-453u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 1248 | 47% | -261 | -2.1% | 43.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -316 | -2.6% | 43.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -719 | -3.2% | 81.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 61 | 52% | -1000 | -41.3% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -2102 | -4.5% | 183.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1248 | 47% | -3600 | -5.8% | 252.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1248, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | Lavked | 1.96 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1102 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | LPH | 2.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1080 |
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | mellren | 2.46 | 21 | won | +31 | -1057 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | B8 | 2.37 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1088 |
| 20.08.26 | OG – SPARTA | SPARTA | 2.02 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1066 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | benched gods | 2.02 | 23 | won | +23 | -1042 |
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – UNiTY | Lavked | 1.95 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1065 |
| 20.08.26 | Falcons – The MongolZ | The MongolZ | 2.49 | 25 | lost | -25 | -1042 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.96 | 24 | won | +23 | -1017 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | Bebop | 1.98 | 25 | lost | -25 | -1039 |
| 19.08.26 | GamerLegion – MOUZ | GamerLegion | 2.41 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1014 |
| 19.08.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 2.02 | 25 | won | +26 | -988 |
| 19.08.26 | EAC – Color | Color | 2.01 | 24 | won | +24 | -1014 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Honvéd | 2.81 | 22 | won | +40 | -1038 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | FUT | 1.98 | 21 | won | +20 | -1077 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Lavked | 2.17 | 20 | won | +23 | -1098 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.17 | 19 | won | +22 | -1121 |
| 19.08.26 | Noir Verse – ENCE | Noir Verse | 2.20 | 18 | won | +21 | -1143 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | Misa | 2.19 | 19 | lost | -19 | -1164 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | MOUZ NXT | 2.05 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1146 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | Permitta | 2.01 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1126 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.93 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1105 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | UNiTY | 2.54 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1084 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Misa | 2.09 | 22 | won | +23 | -1061 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | PCIFIC | 1.96 | 21 | won | +20 | -1085 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – SPARTA | Metizport | 1.90 | 20 | won | +18 | -1104 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | OG | 2.06 | 19 | won | +20 | -1122 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – Permitta | Fortress | 2.43 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1142 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – Vexar | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.01 | 19 | won | +19 | -1122 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 3.07 | 20 | lost | -20 | -1141 |
| 18.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Misa | Misa | 3.50 | 21 | lost | -21 | -1122 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | Fortress | 2.69 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1101 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | DONSTU | 2.13 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1079 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 2.29 | 22 | won | +28 | -1056 |
| 18.08.26 | MASONIC – Bebop | Bebop | 2.08 | 23 | lost | -23 | -1084 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-Zero Tenacity | 2.41 | 21 | won | +30 | -1061 |
| 18.08.26 | Bebop – benched gods | Bebop | 1.98 | 22 | lost | -22 | -1091 |
| 18.08.26 | ENCE – Mai Tai | Mai Tai | 2.46 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1069 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.97 | 25 | lost | -25 | -1045 |
| 17.08.26 | mellren – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 2.15 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1020 |
| 17.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-RUSTEC | Noir Verse | 2.19 | 27 | lost | -27 | -994 |
| 17.08.26 | NEW VISION – Vexar | NEW VISION | 2.10 | 29 | lost | -29 | -967 |
| 17.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Inner Circle Academy | 1.96 | 28 | won | +26 | -938 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | benched gods | 2.03 | 26 | won | +27 | -964 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | Lavked | 2.70 | 24 | won | +41 | -991 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – BASEMENT BOYS | EAC | 2.17 | 23 | won | +27 | -1032 |
| 16.08.26 | DragonClaw – ex-Zero Tenacity | DragonClaw | 2.15 | 24 | lost | -24 | -1059 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Keyd Stars | 2.20 | 25 | lost | -25 | -1035 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | GUESS | 1.94 | 27 | lost | -27 | -1010 |
| 16.08.26 | UNiTY – Misa | Misa | 1.99 | 28 | lost | -28 | -983 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | Mai Tai | 2.50 | 26 | won | +39 | -955 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.21 | 25 | won | +30 | -994 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.21 | 26 | lost | -26 | -1024 |
| 16.08.26 | EAC – Lavked | Lavked | 1.97 | 27 | lost | -27 | -998 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | ENCE | 2.13 | 29 | lost | -29 | -971 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Vitality | 1.94 | 27 | won | +26 | -942 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | ROUNDS | 2.20 | 29 | lost | -29 | -968 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Nexus | 2.41 | 30 | lost | -30 | -939 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-MANA | 2.35 | 32 | lost | -32 | -909 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | paiN Academy | 2.18 | 34 | lost | -34 | -877 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.