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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-5583u
ROI
-9.1%
win rate
43%
bets
2822
drawdown
539.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

5% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-939u
period 6top-up-992u
period 5top-up-930u
period 4top-up-620u
period 3top-up-623u
period 2top-up-911u
period 1top-up-567u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale40445%-846-4.4%93.2%Select
1% of bankroll282243%-1944-8.3%194.2%Select
Flat (10 units)282243%-2293-8.1%229.3%Select
2% of bankroll282243%-3328-8.6%329.5%Select
5% of bankroll282243%-5583-9.1%539.1%Select
10% of bankroll282243%-6745-8.9%427.8%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2822, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 6666Banda Chuya2.573lost-3-4583
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.193lost-3-4579
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.673won+5-4576
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.413won+4-4581
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.903lost-3-4585
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.213lost-3-4582
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.093won+3-4579
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.783lost-3-4582
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.013lost-3-4579
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.293won+4-4576
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.113lost-3-4580
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.904lost-4-4576
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.164lost-4-4573
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.904lost-4-4569
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.044won+4-4565
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.114lost-4-4569
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.994lost-4-4565
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.104lost-4-4561
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.955lost-5-4557
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.265lost-5-4552
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.015lost-5-4547
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.695lost-5-4542
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.096lost-6-4537
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.686lost-6-4531
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.186lost-6-4525
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.457lost-7-4519
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.997lost-7-4513
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.047lost-7-4506
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.027won+7-4499
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.547lost-7-4506
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.067won+7-4498
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.967lost-7-4506
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.967won+7-4498
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.617lost-7-4505
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.127won+14-4498
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.407lost-7-4512
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.647lost-7-4505
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.978lost-8-4497
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersJust Players1.978lost-8-4490
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.458won+11-4482
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya3.528lost-8-4493
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenBebop2.908lost-8-4485
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoThe KnockoutX2.319lost-9-4476
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritAurora2.548won+13-4468
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.559lost-9-4480
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.148won+9-4472
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGKZG2.079lost-9-4481
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestGround Zero2.149lost-9-4472
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarZomblers2.079won+9-4463
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopChicken Coop2.248won+10-4472
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainEMPIRE2.208lost-8-4482
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalAbyssal2.149lost-9-4474
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Yawaraex-Keyd Stars1.959won+8-4465
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSBORRACHEIROS2.108won+9-4473
10.10.26NRG – WildcardWildcard1.928won+7-4482
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertSportsBetExpert2.027won+7-4489
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorNAVI Junior1.968lost-8-4497
10.10.26Fathom – SportsBetExpertFathom2.838lost-8-4489
10.10.26Without a Roof – Last Dance USLast Dance US3.379lost-9-4481
10.10.26Holy Cannoli – Unreal NightmareUnreal Nightmare2.178won+10-4472
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.