Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-83u
ROI
-1.5%
win rate
58%
bets
543
drawdown
21.7%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-119u
period 6profit withdrawn+16u
period 5top-up-89u
period 4profit withdrawn+40u
period 3top-up-20u
period 2profit withdrawn+70u
period 1profit withdrawn+19u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 58% | -79 | -1.5% | 21.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 58% | -83 | -1.5% | 21.7% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 58% | -175 | -1.6% | 38.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 543 | 58% | -215 | -1.6% | 72.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 58% | -526 | -2% | 74% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 58% | -1414 | -2.8% | 118.8% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Gothic – Lavked | Gothic | 1.74 | 9 | lost | -9 | 917 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 9 | won | +6 | 926 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | 100 Thieves | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 920 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Sangal | 1.53 | 9 | won | +5 | 913 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.72 | 9 | won | +6 | 908 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 9 | lost | -9 | 902 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 9 | won | +7 | 911 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | benched gods | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 904 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | WBT Academy | 1.72 | 9 | lost | -9 | 912 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | Club 333 | 1.78 | 9 | lost | -9 | 921 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | ALKA | 1.62 | 9 | lost | -9 | 930 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | Misa | 1.73 | 9 | lost | -9 | 939 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 948 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 957 |
| 09.10.26 | New Legends – Wanted Goons | New Legends | 1.58 | 9 | lost | -9 | 951 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Leo | 1.26 | 9 | won | +2 | 960 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 9 | lost | -9 | 957 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.49 | 9 | won | +5 | 967 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Alter Ego | 1.65 | 9 | lost | -9 | 962 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.42 | 9 | lost | -9 | 972 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | BESTIA Academy | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 981 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.50 | 9 | won | +5 | 991 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | Sangal | 1.72 | 9 | won | +7 | 986 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.56 | 10 | lost | -10 | 979 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Vexar | 1.31 | 10 | lost | -10 | 989 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Vexar | 1.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 998 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | OG | 1.41 | 10 | won | +4 | 1008 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | G2 Ares | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 1004 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | PURE | 1.53 | 10 | won | +5 | 999 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | LPH | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 994 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 1004 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | Spirit | 1.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 996 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | FURIA | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 1006 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1000 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.55 | 10 | won | +5 | 1010 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.30 | 10 | won | +3 | 1004 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | FOKUS | 1.72 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1002 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Prestige | Voca | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 1011 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | SportsBetExpert | 1.32 | 10 | won | +3 | 1007 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | Nexus | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1004 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Voca | 1.61 | 10 | won | +6 | 1013 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | UNiTY | 1.76 | 10 | won | +7 | 1007 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.37 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1000 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | FaZe | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1010 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 1020 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.24 | 10 | won | +2 | 1014 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1012 |
| 01.10.26 | Yawara – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1022 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | SINQU | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1032 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | Mira | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 1042 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | mellren | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 1036 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1029 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | WW | 1.63 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1039 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | Rune Eaters | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 1050 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1043 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.64 | 10 | won | +7 | 1053 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | Marsborne | 1.41 | 10 | won | +4 | 1046 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Galorys | 1.43 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1042 |
| 27.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1053 |
| 27.09.26 | Nemiga – Color | Nemiga | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 1044 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.