Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+8u
ROI
+0.3%
win rate
58%
bets
251
drawdown
11.2%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-8u
period 3profit withdrawn+13u
period 2profit withdrawn+91u
period 1top-up-88u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 251 | 58% | +571 | +10.7% | 30.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 251 | 58% | +13 | +0.1% | 48.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 251 | 58% | +13 | +0.3% | 21.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 251 | 58% | +9 | +0.4% | 11.4% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 251 | 58% | +8 | +0.3% | 11.2% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 251 | 58% | -61 | -0.2% | 81.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | ENCE | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1008 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 10 | won | +8 | 1000 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 992 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1002 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.55 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1012 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 10 | won | +4 | 1022 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1018 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1028 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.55 | 10 | won | +6 | 1038 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1033 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | ENCE | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1043 |
| 14.08.26 | PARIVISION – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1053 |
| 14.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom Academy | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.82 | 10 | won | +9 | 1064 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – ex-MANA | INOX Division | 1.48 | 10 | won | +5 | 1055 |
| 13.08.26 | ENCE – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1050 |
| 13.08.26 | Luminosity – Spirit | Spirit | 1.38 | 10 | won | +4 | 1042 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1038 |
| 12.08.26 | Luminosity – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 1031 |
| 09.08.26 | Jam – UNiTY | Jam | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 1023 |
| 09.08.26 | Fluxo – fnatic | fnatic | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 1017 |
| 09.08.26 | FOKUS – Acend | Acend | 1.87 | 10 | won | +9 | 1010 |
| 09.08.26 | SINNERS – EYEBALLERS | EYEBALLERS | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1001 |
| 08.08.26 | LPH – Nexus | LPH | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 994 |
| 08.08.26 | GenOne – Galactik rebels | GenOne | 1.44 | 10 | won | +4 | 1004 |
| 08.08.26 | NAVI Junior – LPH | LPH | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 999 |
| 08.08.26 | K27 – SINNERS | K27 | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 993 |
| 08.08.26 | Echo – OG | Echo | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 986 |
| 07.08.26 | FKOMAR – Iberian Soul | FKOMAR | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 980 |
| 07.08.26 | Inner Circle – NIO | Inner Circle | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 989 |
| 07.08.26 | Just Players – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 985 |
| 05.08.26 | GamersLab – Jam | Jam | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 978 |
| 05.08.26 | ex-RUSTEC – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.85 | 9 | won | +8 | 971 |
| 05.08.26 | Betclic – Liquid | Liquid | 1.87 | 10 | lost | -10 | 963 |
| 04.08.26 | Nemiga – GenOne | GenOne | 1.40 | 10 | won | +4 | 972 |
| 04.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Leo | Leo | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 969 |
| 04.08.26 | Sashi – Phantom | Phantom | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 978 |
| 04.08.26 | Grêmio – paiN Academy | paiN Academy | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 988 |
| 04.08.26 | Yawara – ex-GUARA | Yawara | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 998 |
| 03.08.26 | Walczaki – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 989 |
| 03.08.26 | ARCRED – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.75 | 10 | won | +7 | 982 |
| 03.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Misa | Misa | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 975 |
| 03.08.26 | Mindfreak – FURY | FURY | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 984 |
| 02.08.26 | Vexar – Inner Circle Academy | Vexar | 1.58 | 10 | lost | -10 | 977 |
| 02.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 986 |
| 02.08.26 | 6666 – 9INE | 9INE | 1.71 | 10 | won | +7 | 996 |
| 02.08.26 | Lazer Cats – ex-1win | ex-1win | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 989 |
| 01.08.26 | CYBERSHOKE – megoshort | CYBERSHOKE | 1.55 | 10 | won | +5 | 999 |
| 01.08.26 | ex-1win – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.47 | 10 | lost | -10 | 994 |
| 01.08.26 | Betclic – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.62 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1003 |
| 01.08.26 | DEPO – DONSTU | DEPO | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1013 |
| 01.08.26 | Trouble makers – THE UNIT | Trouble makers | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1006 |
| 31.07.26 | JiJieHao – Black Phoenix | JiJieHao | 1.88 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1016 |
| 31.07.26 | HAVU – ROUNDS | HAVU | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 1026 |
| 31.07.26 | FaZe – The MongolZ | FaZe | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 1017 |
| 31.07.26 | INOX Division – Falcons Force | INOX Division | 1.39 | 10 | won | +4 | 1009 |
| 31.07.26 | UNiTY – Mai Tai | UNiTY | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 1005 |
| 31.07.26 | ROUNDS – BC.Game | ROUNDS | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 997 |
| 31.07.26 | Voca – SportsBetExpert | SportsBetExpert | 1.74 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1007 |
| 31.07.26 | Atreides – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.67 | 10 | won | +7 | 1017 |
| 30.07.26 | 1win – Butterfly | Butterfly | 1.85 | 10 | won | +9 | 1010 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.