Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+297u
ROI
+5.2%
win rate
62%
bets
543
drawdown
14.2%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+84u
period 6profit withdrawn+185u
period 5profit withdrawn+1u
period 4top-up-27u
period 3top-up-7u
period 2profit withdrawn+98u
period 1top-up-37u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 62% | +3134 | +3.6% | 95% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 62% | +1575 | +4.6% | 57.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 543 | 62% | +1364 | +13.5% | 18.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 62% | +605 | +5.1% | 26.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 62% | +297 | +5.2% | 14.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 62% | +292 | +5.4% | 14.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Gothic – Lavked | Gothic | 1.74 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1297 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 11 | won | +8 | 1308 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | Liquid | 1.70 | 11 | won | +8 | 1301 |
| 12.10.26 | Inner Circle – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.79 | 11 | won | +8 | 1293 |
| 12.10.26 | Yawara – Galorys | Galorys | 1.48 | 11 | won | +5 | 1285 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1280 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1290 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Just Players | 1.50 | 11 | won | +5 | 1301 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 11 | won | +6 | 1296 |
| 10.10.26 | Ground Zero – KZG | Ground Zero | 1.56 | 11 | won | +6 | 1290 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | ALKA | 1.62 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1284 |
| 09.10.26 | Acend – Nexus | Nexus | 1.78 | 11 | won | +8 | 1295 |
| 09.10.26 | mellren – Bebop | mellren | 1.36 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1287 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 11 | won | +8 | 1298 |
| 09.10.26 | Chicken Coop – DETONATE | Chicken Coop | 1.81 | 11 | won | +9 | 1290 |
| 08.10.26 | Lilmix – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.23 | 11 | won | +2 | 1281 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1279 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | CYBERSHOKE | 1.82 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1289 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | The KnockoutX | 1.82 | 11 | won | +9 | 1300 |
| 08.10.26 | Legion – Nas | Nas | 1.61 | 11 | won | +6 | 1291 |
| 08.10.26 | Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROS | Turma do Pagode | 1.45 | 11 | won | +5 | 1285 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – NAVI Junior | Sangal | 1.42 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1280 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | RBLS | 1.55 | 11 | won | +6 | 1291 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.56 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1285 |
| 07.10.26 | Just Players – HYPERSPIRIT | Just Players | 1.55 | 11 | won | +6 | 1296 |
| 07.10.26 | The KnockoutX – The Huns | The Huns | 1.71 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1290 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | OG | 1.41 | 11 | won | +4 | 1301 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | G2 Ares | 1.50 | 11 | won | +5 | 1296 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Orion Wanderers | OG | 1.59 | 11 | won | +6 | 1291 |
| 07.10.26 | benched gods – Banda Chuya | benched gods | 1.66 | 11 | won | +7 | 1284 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | Aurora | 1.81 | 11 | won | +9 | 1277 |
| 06.10.26 | G2 – PARIVISION | G2 | 1.52 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1269 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | G2 | 1.85 | 11 | won | +9 | 1279 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | Aurora | 1.61 | 11 | won | +6 | 1271 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.55 | 10 | won | +6 | 1264 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Nemiga | 1.30 | 10 | won | +3 | 1258 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | FOKUS | 1.72 | 11 | lost | -11 | 1255 |
| 02.10.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Glitch | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 1266 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | SportsBetExpert | 1.32 | 10 | won | +3 | 1259 |
| 02.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITE | Bounty Hunters | 1.64 | 10 | won | +7 | 1255 |
| 02.10.26 | Luminosity – BIG | Luminosity | 1.86 | 10 | won | +9 | 1249 |
| 02.10.26 | Fire Flux – benched gods | Fire Flux | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 1240 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Sangal | Sangal | 1.72 | 10 | won | +7 | 1233 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | FaZe | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1226 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | NEXVOID | 1.54 | 10 | won | +5 | 1236 |
| 01.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – CYBERSHOKE | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.68 | 10 | won | +7 | 1230 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1223 |
| 01.10.26 | Lavked – HYPERSPIRIT | Lavked | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 1234 |
| 01.10.26 | SAW – NT | SAW | 1.59 | 10 | won | +6 | 1225 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | Mira | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 1220 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | mellren | 1.68 | 12 | won | +8 | 1214 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.55 | 12 | lost | -12 | 1205 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | WW | 1.63 | 12 | lost | -12 | 1217 |
| 29.09.26 | DEPO – PAQT | DEPO | 1.57 | 12 | lost | -12 | 1229 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.87 | 12 | lost | -12 | 1242 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | Marsborne | 1.41 | 12 | won | +5 | 1254 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | LAG | 1.64 | 12 | won | +8 | 1249 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Galorys | 1.43 | 12 | lost | -12 | 1241 |
| 27.09.26 | INFINITE – RBLS | RBLS | 1.82 | 12 | lost | -12 | 1253 |
| 27.09.26 | Imperial – paiN | Imperial | 1.29 | 12 | won | +4 | 1266 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.