Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
+135u
ROI
+0.8%
win rate
53%
bets
618
drawdown
45.3%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-720u
period 3profit withdrawn+229u
period 2profit withdrawn+380u
period 1profit withdrawn+245u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 618 | 53% | +135 | +0.8% | 45.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 618 | 53% | -431 | -7.3% | 44.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 618 | 53% | -443 | -7.2% | 45.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 618 | 53% | -836 | -7.4% | 84.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 618 | 53% | -1881 | -7.8% | 182.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 618 | 53% | -3053 | -8.4% | 301.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 618, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1135 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Color | 1.85 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1215 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1255 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1275 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | G2 Ares | 1.80 | 40 | won | +32 | 1285 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1253 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1273 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 20 | won | +16 | 1283 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1267 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 40 | won | +30 | 1277 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1247 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1267 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 1277 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 40 | won | +32 | 1270 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1237 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Omega | 1.46 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1257 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 1267 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 10 | won | +4 | 1260 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1256 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 10 | won | +8 | 1249 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1241 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | EAC | 1.45 | 10 | won | +5 | 1234 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 40 | won | +34 | 1229 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | PCIFIC | 1.86 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1195 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1215 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 20 | won | +13 | 1225 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1212 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 20 | won | +16 | 1222 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1206 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1216 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | WBT | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 1208 |
| 16.08.26 | The MongolZ – paiN | The MongolZ | 1.83 | 10 | won | +8 | 1201 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 10 | won | +7 | 1192 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | Spirit | 1.74 | 10 | won | +7 | 1186 |
| 15.08.26 | BAKS – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 1178 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | 9z | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1161 |
| 15.08.26 | Enjoy – UNiTY | Enjoy | 1.60 | 10 | won | +6 | 1171 |
| 15.08.26 | Privateer – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 80 | won | +61 | 1165 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1104 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.59 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1144 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1164 |
| 15.08.26 | Misa – Mai Tai | Misa | 1.74 | 184 | won | +135 | 1174 |
| 15.08.26 | METANOIA Wolves – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 1.51 | 160 | lost | -160 | 1038 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – Entropy | Entropy | 1.82 | 80 | lost | -80 | 1198 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.80 | 40 | lost | -40 | 1278 |
| 14.08.26 | The Last Resort – Honvéd | The Last Resort | 1.71 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1318 |
| 14.08.26 | eternal premium – Privateer | Privateer | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1338 |
| 14.08.26 | B8 – Vitality | B8 | 1.86 | 40 | won | +34 | 1348 |
| 14.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – Lazer Cats | Lazer Cats | 1.71 | 20 | lost | -20 | 1314 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1334 |
| 14.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.73 | 20 | won | +15 | 1344 |
| 13.08.26 | Honvéd – Bebop | Honvéd | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1330 |
| 13.08.26 | Abyssal – Ground Zero | Ground Zero | 1.70 | 10 | won | +7 | 1340 |
| 12.08.26 | Lynn Vision – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.59 | 20 | won | +12 | 1333 |
| 12.08.26 | Endless Journey – HAVU | Endless Journey | 1.48 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1321 |
| 12.08.26 | Natus Vincere – 3DMAX | Natus Vincere | 1.62 | 20 | won | +12 | 1331 |
| 12.08.26 | G2 – M80 | M80 | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1318 |
| 12.08.26 | ROUNDS – Subtop De France | ROUNDS | 1.78 | 10 | won | +8 | 1328 |
| 12.08.26 | BIG – Aurora | BIG | 1.88 | 20 | won | +18 | 1320 |
| 11.08.26 | Rooster – Mindfreak | Rooster | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1303 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.