Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-877u
ROI
-6.9%
win rate
55%
bets
1380
drawdown
90.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-72u
period 6top-up-251u
period 5top-up-204u
period 4top-up-116u
period 3top-up-55u
period 2top-up-122u
period 1top-up-57u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 806 | 54% | -290 | -1.3% | 60.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1380 | 55% | -877 | -6.9% | 90.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1380 | 55% | -911 | -6.6% | 94.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1380 | 55% | -1682 | -7.1% | 171.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1380 | 55% | -3632 | -7.8% | 353.4% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1380 | 55% | -5555 | -8.7% | 507.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1380, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | FURIA – BETBOOM | FURIA | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 123 |
| 14.10.26 | Butterfly – Nuclear TigeRES | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.61 | 9 | won | +6 | 116 |
| 14.10.26 | Just Players – FOKUS | Just Players | 1.73 | 9 | lost | -9 | 110 |
| 14.10.26 | G2 Ares – The Last Resort | G2 Ares | 1.77 | 9 | won | +7 | 119 |
| 14.10.26 | PCIFIC – Ryvex | Ryvex | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 112 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | fnatic | 1.38 | 9 | won | +4 | 122 |
| 14.10.26 | HOTU – Astralis | HOTU | 1.58 | 9 | lost | -9 | 118 |
| 14.10.26 | Banda Chuya – 6666 | 6666 | 1.49 | 9 | won | +5 | 127 |
| 14.10.26 | HOTU – fnatic | HOTU | 1.84 | 9 | won | +8 | 123 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | Enjoy | 1.87 | 9 | won | +8 | 115 |
| 13.10.26 | Grêmio – LOS NINOS | LOS NINOS | 1.78 | 9 | won | +7 | 107 |
| 13.10.26 | GenOne – Butterfly | GenOne | 1.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | 100 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 9 | won | +6 | 109 |
| 13.10.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Illyrians | Bushido Wildcats | 1.76 | 9 | lost | -9 | 103 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | Liquid | 1.70 | 9 | won | +6 | 112 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Sangal | 1.53 | 9 | won | +5 | 106 |
| 12.10.26 | Enjoy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.82 | 9 | won | +7 | 101 |
| 12.10.26 | Overtake Sector – regain | regain | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 93 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.72 | 9 | won | +6 | 102 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 9 | lost | -9 | 96 |
| 11.10.26 | BET-M – PRIVATE | BET-M | 1.87 | 9 | lost | -9 | 105 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 9 | lost | -9 | 114 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 9 | won | +7 | 124 |
| 11.10.26 | Just Players – Misa | Just Players | 1.50 | 9 | won | +5 | 116 |
| 11.10.26 | ex-Keyd Stars – Yawara | Yawara | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 112 |
| 10.10.26 | Without a Roof – Last Dance US | Without a Roof | 1.31 | 9 | won | +3 | 121 |
| 10.10.26 | NRG – Unreal Nightmare | NRG | 1.52 | 9 | won | +5 | 118 |
| 10.10.26 | Bebop – 6666 | 6666 | 1.72 | 9 | won | +7 | 113 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.53 | 9 | won | +5 | 107 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 9 | won | +5 | 102 |
| 10.10.26 | FlyQuest – madlikewizards | FlyQuest | 1.45 | 9 | won | +4 | 97 |
| 10.10.26 | Desi Boyz – EMPIRE | Desi Boyz | 1.83 | 9 | lost | -9 | 93 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | Club 333 | 1.78 | 9 | lost | -9 | 102 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | ALKA | 1.62 | 9 | lost | -9 | 111 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 121 |
| 09.10.26 | Falcons – Spirit | Spirit | 1.60 | 9 | won | +6 | 113 |
| 09.10.26 | MOUZ NXT – Leo | Leo | 1.48 | 9 | lost | -9 | 108 |
| 09.10.26 | FURIA – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.58 | 9 | won | +5 | 117 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | Misa | 1.73 | 9 | lost | -9 | 112 |
| 09.10.26 | BORING PLAYERS – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.69 | 9 | won | +6 | 121 |
| 09.10.26 | GamerLegion – SINNERS | SINNERS | 1.63 | 9 | lost | -9 | 115 |
| 09.10.26 | HOTU – Acend | HOTU | 1.45 | 9 | won | +4 | 124 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 120 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 113 |
| 09.10.26 | New Legends – Wanted Goons | New Legends | 1.58 | 9 | lost | -9 | 122 |
| 09.10.26 | Grêmio – Yawara | Yawara | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 132 |
| 09.10.26 | Isurus – ex-Keyd Stars | Isurus | 1.85 | 9 | lost | -9 | 125 |
| 08.10.26 | INFINITE – G2 Ares | INFINITE | 1.79 | 9 | lost | -9 | 134 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Leo | 1.26 | 9 | won | +2 | 143 |
| 08.10.26 | Saint Sinners – mellren | mellren | 1.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 141 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 10 | lost | -10 | 151 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 160 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | CYBERSHOKE | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 155 |
| 08.10.26 | THE UNIT – The KnockoutX | The KnockoutX | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 165 |
| 08.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Chinggis Warriors | Chinggis Warriors | 1.86 | 10 | lost | -10 | 157 |
| 08.10.26 | ENCE – LFO 10 | ENCE | 1.66 | 10 | won | +6 | 167 |
| 08.10.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Banda Chuya | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 161 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.50 | 10 | won | +5 | 153 |
| 08.10.26 | OG – Sangal | Sangal | 1.63 | 9 | won | +6 | 148 |
| 08.10.26 | Banda Chuya – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.66 | 9 | won | +6 | 142 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.