Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-808u
ROI
-6.4%
win rate
56%
bets
1378
drawdown
88.8%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-42u
period 6top-up-164u
period 5top-up-256u
period 4top-up-115u
period 3top-up-47u
period 2top-up-202u
period 1profit withdrawn+18u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 807 | 54% | -385 | -1.6% | 65.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1378 | 56% | -808 | -6.4% | 88.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1378 | 56% | -846 | -6.1% | 93.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1378 | 56% | -1538 | -6.6% | 157.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1378 | 56% | -3263 | -7.2% | 283.8% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1378 | 56% | -4938 | -7.8% | 365.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1378, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | FORZE Reload – LFO 10 | FORZE Reload | 1.47 | 10 | won | +4 | 192 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – HOTU | HOTU | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 187 |
| 14.10.26 | BET-M – FORZE Reload | FORZE Reload | 1.69 | 10 | won | +7 | 197 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | fnatic | 1.38 | 10 | won | +4 | 190 |
| 14.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Alter Ego | Alter Ego | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 187 |
| 14.10.26 | Banda Chuya – 6666 | 6666 | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 196 |
| 14.10.26 | HOTU – fnatic | HOTU | 1.84 | 9 | won | +8 | 192 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | Enjoy | 1.87 | 9 | won | +8 | 184 |
| 13.10.26 | Grêmio – LOS NINOS | LOS NINOS | 1.78 | 9 | won | +7 | 175 |
| 13.10.26 | GenOne – Butterfly | GenOne | 1.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | 168 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | UPGRADE | 1.71 | 9 | won | +7 | 178 |
| 13.10.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Illyrians | Bushido Wildcats | 1.76 | 9 | lost | -9 | 171 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | Liquid | 1.70 | 9 | won | +7 | 180 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Sangal | 1.53 | 9 | won | +5 | 174 |
| 12.10.26 | Enjoy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 1.82 | 9 | won | +8 | 169 |
| 12.10.26 | DETONATE – Iowa Stormboar | Iowa Stormboar | 1.66 | 9 | won | +6 | 161 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | Bounty Hunters | 1.72 | 9 | won | +7 | 155 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | Imperial | 1.35 | 9 | lost | -9 | 149 |
| 11.10.26 | XI – ASTRAL | ASTRAL | 1.65 | 9 | lost | -9 | 158 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | Inner Circle Academy | 1.53 | 9 | lost | -9 | 167 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Nuclear TigeRES | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 177 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | benched gods | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 169 |
| 11.10.26 | Galorys – MEIA NOITE | Galorys | 1.41 | 9 | won | +4 | 178 |
| 10.10.26 | Without a Roof – Last Dance US | Without a Roof | 1.31 | 9 | won | +3 | 175 |
| 10.10.26 | NRG – Unreal Nightmare | NRG | 1.52 | 9 | won | +5 | 172 |
| 10.10.26 | Bebop – 6666 | 6666 | 1.72 | 9 | won | +7 | 167 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Abyssal | 1.51 | 9 | won | +5 | 160 |
| 10.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.53 | 9 | won | +5 | 155 |
| 10.10.26 | FlyQuest – madlikewizards | FlyQuest | 1.45 | 9 | won | +4 | 151 |
| 10.10.26 | regain – Villainous | regain | 1.62 | 9 | won | +6 | 146 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | Club 333 | 1.78 | 9 | lost | -9 | 141 |
| 10.10.26 | Grêmio – BORRACHEIROS | BORRACHEIROS | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 150 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Procyon | 1.73 | 9 | won | +7 | 143 |
| 09.10.26 | Falcons – Spirit | Spirit | 1.60 | 9 | won | +5 | 136 |
| 09.10.26 | Saint Sinners – Just Players | Just Players | 1.57 | 9 | won | +5 | 131 |
| 09.10.26 | FURIA – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.58 | 9 | won | +5 | 126 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | WBT Academy | 1.53 | 9 | lost | -9 | 120 |
| 09.10.26 | Vitalem Aerem – Rare Atom | Rare Atom | 1.52 | 9 | lost | -9 | 129 |
| 09.10.26 | GamerLegion – SINNERS | SINNERS | 1.63 | 9 | lost | -9 | 138 |
| 09.10.26 | HOTU – Acend | HOTU | 1.45 | 9 | won | +4 | 148 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.40 | 9 | lost | -9 | 144 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Black Phoenix | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 153 |
| 09.10.26 | Chicken Coop – DETONATE | Chicken Coop | 1.81 | 9 | won | +7 | 146 |
| 09.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – ALKA | Bounty Hunters | 1.82 | 9 | won | +7 | 139 |
| 09.10.26 | Grêmio – Yawara | Yawara | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 131 |
| 08.10.26 | INFINITE – G2 Ares | INFINITE | 1.79 | 9 | lost | -9 | 125 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Leo | 1.26 | 9 | won | +2 | 134 |
| 08.10.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.88 | 9 | won | +8 | 131 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | Betclic | 1.73 | 9 | lost | -9 | 123 |
| 08.10.26 | CYBERSHOKE – Nexus | CYBERSHOKE | 1.82 | 9 | lost | -9 | 132 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.49 | 9 | won | +4 | 141 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Alter Ego | 1.65 | 9 | lost | -9 | 137 |
| 08.10.26 | Rare Atom – Just Swing | Rare Atom | 1.57 | 9 | lost | -9 | 146 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | The Last Resort | 1.42 | 9 | lost | -9 | 155 |
| 08.10.26 | BERG – mellren | mellren | 1.32 | 9 | won | +3 | 165 |
| 08.10.26 | Azuolas – Noir Verse | Noir Verse | 1.50 | 9 | won | +5 | 162 |
| 08.10.26 | G2 Ares – RBLS | RBLS | 1.75 | 9 | lost | -9 | 157 |
| 08.10.26 | Lavked – Fortress | Lavked | 1.51 | 9 | won | +5 | 166 |
| 08.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Color | Color | 1.77 | 9 | lost | -9 | 162 |
| 08.10.26 | OverKnight – Desi Boyz | Desi Boyz | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 171 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.