Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-54u
ROI
-0.9%
win rate
57%
bets
620
drawdown
20.8%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-39u
period 3top-up-39u
period 2profit withdrawn+130u
period 1top-up-105u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 620 | 57% | +724 | +4.5% | 78% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 620 | 57% | -46 | -0.7% | 19.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 620 | 57% | -54 | -0.9% | 20.8% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 620 | 57% | -122 | -1% | 39.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 620 | 57% | -397 | -1.3% | 78% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 620 | 57% | -1041 | -1.7% | 105.1% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 620, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Lavked – ENCE | ENCE | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 946 |
| 20.08.26 | LPH – WBT | WBT | 1.79 | 9 | won | +7 | 939 |
| 20.08.26 | Honvéd – SAW Youngsters | Honvéd | 1.67 | 9 | won | +6 | 931 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | G2 Ares | 1.80 | 9 | won | +7 | 925 |
| 20.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Raccoons | Bushido Wildcats | 1.57 | 9 | won | +5 | 917 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | 912 |
| 19.08.26 | PCIFIC – SPARTA | PCIFIC | 1.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | 921 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 931 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 9 | lost | -9 | 924 |
| 19.08.26 | Lavked – Revise | Revise | 1.67 | 10 | lost | -10 | 933 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.66 | 10 | won | +6 | 943 |
| 19.08.26 | Mai Tai – Honvéd | Honvéd | 1.49 | 9 | won | +5 | 937 |
| 19.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.75 | 9 | won | +7 | 932 |
| 19.08.26 | Inner Circle Academy – MOUZ NXT | Inner Circle Academy | 1.85 | 9 | won | +8 | 925 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 9 | lost | -9 | 917 |
| 18.08.26 | Lavked – HAVU | Lavked | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 927 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Noir Verse | Honvéd | 1.81 | 9 | won | +8 | 936 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 929 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Fire Flux | Omega | 1.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | 922 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 9 | won | +8 | 931 |
| 18.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.55 | 9 | lost | -9 | 923 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 9 | won | +8 | 933 |
| 18.08.26 | Fortress – ex-MANA | ex-MANA | 1.76 | 9 | won | +7 | 925 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | PCIFIC | 1.86 | 9 | lost | -9 | 918 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 9 | won | +4 | 927 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 9 | lost | -9 | 923 |
| 17.08.26 | Atreides – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.74 | 9 | won | +7 | 933 |
| 17.08.26 | Permitta – UNiTY | Permitta | 1.83 | 9 | lost | -9 | 926 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 10 | lost | -10 | 935 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.81 | 10 | lost | -10 | 945 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | 955 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.64 | 10 | won | +6 | 964 |
| 16.08.26 | Nexus – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.55 | 10 | won | +5 | 958 |
| 16.08.26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA – METANOIA Wolves | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 953 |
| 15.08.26 | INOX Division – Misa | INOX Division | 1.45 | 10 | won | +4 | 948 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.84 | 10 | lost | -10 | 944 |
| 15.08.26 | FURIA – 9z | 9z | 1.76 | 10 | lost | -10 | 954 |
| 15.08.26 | Leo – Misa | Leo | 1.61 | 10 | lost | -10 | 963 |
| 15.08.26 | Atreides – LPH | LPH | 1.56 | 10 | won | +5 | 973 |
| 15.08.26 | Honvéd – Inner Circle Academy | Honvéd | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 968 |
| 15.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – ENCE | ENCE | 1.68 | 10 | lost | -10 | 978 |
| 15.08.26 | Fire Flux – NEW VISION | Fire Flux | 1.53 | 10 | lost | -10 | 988 |
| 14.08.26 | Galorys – BORRACHEIROS | Galorys | 1.85 | 10 | won | +8 | 998 |
| 14.08.26 | SINQU – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 989 |
| 14.08.26 | PARIVISION – 100 Thieves | 100 Thieves | 1.59 | 10 | lost | -10 | 999 |
| 14.08.26 | Just Players – ENCE | Just Players | 1.82 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1010 |
| 14.08.26 | Leo – benched gods | Leo | 1.74 | 10 | won | +8 | 1020 |
| 14.08.26 | BASEMENT BOYS – Phantom Academy | BASEMENT BOYS | 1.82 | 10 | won | +8 | 1012 |
| 14.08.26 | Misa – Leo | Leo | 1.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1004 |
| 14.08.26 | INOX Division – ex-MANA | INOX Division | 1.48 | 10 | won | +5 | 1014 |
| 14.08.26 | NEW VISION – Arch | Arch | 1.57 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1009 |
| 14.08.26 | Enjoy – Misa | Enjoy | 1.49 | 10 | won | +5 | 1020 |
| 13.08.26 | ENCE – Enjoy | Enjoy | 1.77 | 10 | won | +8 | 1015 |
| 13.08.26 | Luminosity – Spirit | Spirit | 1.38 | 10 | won | +4 | 1007 |
| 12.08.26 | Wildcard – FURIA | FURIA | 1.76 | 10 | won | +8 | 1003 |
| 12.08.26 | BetBoom – FaZe | BetBoom | 1.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 995 |
| 12.08.26 | Vexar – Raccoons | Raccoons | 1.88 | 10 | won | +9 | 1006 |
| 12.08.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – Legacy | Legacy | 1.85 | 10 | won | +9 | 997 |
| 12.08.26 | Luminosity – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.81 | 10 | won | +8 | 988 |
| 12.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – ex-MANA | Bushido Wildcats | 1.47 | 10 | won | +5 | 980 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.