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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-319u
ROI
-2.4%
win rate
58%
bets
1371
drawdown
41.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-40u
period 6top-up-57u
period 5top-up-1u
period 4top-up-158u
period 3top-up-17u
period 2top-up-61u
period 1profit withdrawn+15u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale117057%-149-0.5%57.8%Select
Flat (10 units)137158%-289-2.1%40.2%Select
1% of bankroll137158%-319-2.4%41.6%Select
2% of bankroll137158%-691-2.7%78.9%Select
5% of bankroll137158%-2003-3.5%172.7%Select
10% of bankroll137158%-4128-4.8%282.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1371, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.7410lost-10681
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7810won+8690
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6010lost-10683
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7110won+7693
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7610lost-10686
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7010won+7696
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.7910won+8689
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8210won+8681
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.8210lost-10673
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.4810won+5683
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3510lost-10678
11.10.26XI – ASTRALASTRAL1.6510lost-10688
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.5310lost-10698
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersNuclear TigeRES1.8110won+8708
11.10.26Just Players – MisaJust Players1.5010won+5700
11.10.26Procyon – BORRACHEIROSProcyon1.7110lost-10695
10.10.26Elusive – MarsborneMarsborne1.3510won+3705
10.10.26NRG – Unreal NightmareNRG1.5210won+5701
10.10.26Bebop – 666666661.7210won+7696
10.10.26Abyssal – MindfreakAbyssal1.5110won+5689
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersWBT Academy1.7210lost-10684
10.10.26FlyQuest – madlikewizardsFlyQuest1.4510won+4694
10.10.26Ground Zero – KZGGround Zero1.5610won+5690
10.10.26Club 333 – DETONATEClub 3331.7810lost-10684
10.10.26Isurus – ProcyonProcyon1.7310won+7694
10.10.26ALKA – MEIA NOITEALKA1.6210lost-10687
09.10.26Falcons – SpiritSpirit1.6010won+6697
09.10.26MOUZ NXT – LeoLeo1.4810lost-10691
09.10.26FURIA – MOUZMOUZ1.5810won+6701
09.10.26Acend – NexusNexus1.7810won+8695
09.10.26Saint Sinners – MOUZ NXTSaint Sinners1.7010won+7688
09.10.26GamerLegion – SINNERSSINNERS1.6310lost-10681
09.10.26HOTU – AcendHOTU1.4510won+4691
09.10.26mellren – Bebopmellren1.3610lost-10686
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoBlack Phoenix1.7510won+7696
09.10.26Chicken Coop – DETONATEChicken Coop1.8110won+8689
09.10.26Grêmio – YawaraYawara1.7510won+7681
09.10.26Isurus – ex-Keyd StarsIsurus1.8510lost-10674
08.10.26INFINITE – G2 AresINFINITE1.7910lost-10684
08.10.26Lilmix – Fire FluxFire Flux1.2310won+2693
08.10.26Leo – PrivateerLeo1.2610won+2691
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEBetclic1.7310lost-10689
08.10.26EAC – PUREPURE1.7010won+7698
08.10.26CYBERSHOKE – NexusCYBERSHOKE1.8210lost-10692
08.10.26THE UNIT – The KnockoutXThe KnockoutX1.8210won+8701
08.10.26HYPERSPIRIT – Banda ChuyaHYPERSPIRIT1.8110won+8693
08.10.26Rare Atom – Just SwingRare Atom1.5710lost-10686
08.10.26Legion – NasNas1.6110won+6695
08.10.26Enjoy – 6666Enjoy1.5110lost-10689
08.10.26OG – SangalSangal1.6310won+6699
08.10.26Banda Chuya – IllyriansIllyrians1.6610won+6693
08.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ColorColor1.7710lost-10687
08.10.26Reign Above – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.8410won+8696
08.10.26BESTIA Academy – ALKABESTIA Academy1.8710lost-10688
08.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – ex-Keyd StarsQUINTESSÊNCIA1.7510lost-10698
08.10.26Turma do Pagode – BORRACHEIROSTurma do Pagode1.4510won+4708
07.10.26Sangal – NAVI JuniorSangal1.4210lost-10703
07.10.26RBLS – FamalicãoRBLS1.5510won+5713
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.5610lost-10708
07.10.26Just Players – HYPERSPIRITJust Players1.5510won+5718
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.