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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1083u
ROI
-4.2%
win rate
57%
bets
2825
drawdown
117.4%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+33u
period 6top-up-204u
period 5top-up-242u
period 4top-up-215u
period 3top-up-211u
period 2top-up-244u
period 1profit withdrawn+1u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale18656%-616-12.6%76.4%Select
1% of bankroll282557%-1083-4.2%117.4%Select
Flat (10 units)282557%-1131-4%125%Select
2% of bankroll282557%-2046-4.4%199.5%Select
5% of bankroll282557%-4107-4.7%318.6%Select
10% of bankroll282557%-5669-5.3%331.5%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2825, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26BET-M – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.6910won+7-83
14.10.26fnatic – Sashifnatic1.3810won+4-90
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.4910won+5-94
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.8410won+9-99
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.6610won+7-107
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.4610lost-10-114
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.5510lost-10-104
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.8710won+9-94
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.6510won+7-102
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.7210lost-10-109
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.4310won+4-99
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7810won+8-103
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6010lost-10-111
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7110won+7-101
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.4010won+4-108
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.7610won+8-112
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.8710won+9-119
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7610lost-10-128
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7010won+7-118
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.8010won+8-125
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.7110won+7-133
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.8310won+8-140
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.6710won+6-148
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.7810won+7-154
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.4510won+4-162
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.729won+7-166
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.469won+4-173
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.669lost-9-177
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.539won+5-167
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.799won+7-172
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.749lost-9-180
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.7710lost-10-170
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.5010won+5-161
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.7410lost-10-166
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8210won+8-156
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.669won+6-164
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.489won+4-170
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3510lost-10-175
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.559won+5-165
11.10.26mellren – Lavkedmellren1.479won+4-170
11.10.26XI – ASTRALASTRAL1.6510lost-10-175
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersNuclear TigeRES1.819won+8-165
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.5310lost-10-173
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaGenOne1.2910won+3-163
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenmellren1.409won+4-166
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.609won+6-170
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritSpirit1.5010lost-10-175
11.10.26benched gods – Illyriansbenched gods1.8610lost-10-166
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalGround Zero1.6910lost-10-156
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestFlyQuest1.6910won+7-147
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGAbyssal1.7310won+7-153
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainregain1.659won+6-160
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.7310lost-10-166
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopOvertake Sector1.6310lost-10-157
11.10.26FlyQuest – KZGFlyQuest1.4210won+4-147
11.10.26Galorys – MEIA NOITEGalorys1.4110won+4-151
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – YawaraYawara1.8210lost-10-155
10.10.26NRG – WildcardNRG1.8510lost-10-145
10.10.26Marsborne – SportsBetExpertMarsborne1.7710lost-10-136
10.10.26FaZe – NAVI JuniorFaZe1.8210won+8-126
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.