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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-952u
ROI
-3.7%
win rate
57%
bets
2827
drawdown
104%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+30u
period 6top-up-188u
period 5top-up-258u
period 4top-up-180u
period 3top-up-184u
period 2top-up-209u
period 1profit withdrawn+37u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale18656%-638-12.7%77.4%Select
1% of bankroll282757%-952-3.7%104%Select
Flat (10 units)282757%-976-3.5%107.9%Select
2% of bankroll282757%-1828-3.9%179.1%Select
5% of bankroll282757%-3800-4.3%292.2%Select
10% of bankroll282757%-5375-5%330.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2827, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FORZE Reload – LFO 10FORZE Reload1.4710won+548
14.10.26fnatic – HOTUHOTU1.7710lost-1043
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexRyvex1.8610lost-1054
14.10.26fnatic – Sashifnatic1.3810won+464
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.4910won+560
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.8410won+955
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.6610won+746
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.4610lost-1040
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.7410lost-1050
14.10.26GenOne – 6666GenOne1.5511lost-1160
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.6510won+771
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.7211lost-1164
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.4311won+575
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.7810won+870
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.6011lost-1162
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.7110won+773
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.4010won+465
13.10.26100 Thieves – Liquid100 Thieves1.7610won+861
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.8710won+953
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.7610lost-1044
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.8010won+855
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.7010won+746
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.7110won+739
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersZomblers1.8210lost-1032
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersGalorys1.6210won+642
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.7810won+836
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.4510won+528
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.7210won+724
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.4610won+516
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XINuclear TigeRES1.3410won+312
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.7910won+89
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.5310won+51
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingLynn Vision1.7510won+7-4
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.7710lost-10-12
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.5010won+5-2
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8Rooster1.7510won+7-7
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.8210won+8-14
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.6610won+6-22
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysGalorys1.489won+5-28
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.3510lost-10-33
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.5510won+5-23
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEBET-M1.8710lost-10-29
11.10.26XI – ASTRALASTRAL1.6510lost-10-19
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.5310lost-10-9
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersNuclear TigeRES1.8110won+81
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaGenOne1.2910won+3-7
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenmellren1.4010won+4-10
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.6010won+6-14
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritSpirit1.5010lost-10-20
11.10.26Just Players – MisaJust Players1.5010won+5-10
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalGround Zero1.6910lost-10-15
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestFlyQuest1.6910won+7-5
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGAbyssal1.7310won+7-12
11.10.26Overtake Sector – Chicken CoopOvertake Sector1.6310lost-10-19
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEDETONATE1.6210won+6-9
11.10.26EMPIRE – regainregain1.6510won+6-15
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalGround Zero1.6910won+7-21
11.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – YawaraYawara1.8210lost-10-28
11.10.26Bounty Hunters – LPBounty Hunters1.8610lost-10-18
10.10.26NRG – WildcardNRG1.8510lost-10-8
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.