Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-846u
ROI
-7.6%
win rate
53%
bets
1243
drawdown
84.7%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4top-up-269u
period 3top-up-380u
period 2profit withdrawn+37u
period 1top-up-234u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1243 | 53% | -846 | -7.6% | 84.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1243 | 53% | -973 | -7.8% | 97.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 133 | 47% | -1000 | -18.7% | 100% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1243 | 53% | -1479 | -7.4% | 147% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1243 | 53% | -2598 | -6.9% | 253.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1243 | 53% | -3442 | -7% | 324.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1243, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | mellren – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.53 | 7 | lost | -7 | 154 |
| 20.08.26 | FaZe – Vitality | FaZe | 1.68 | 7 | lost | -7 | 162 |
| 20.08.26 | B8 – Spirit | Spirit | 1.57 | 7 | won | +4 | 169 |
| 20.08.26 | Metizport – Color | Color | 1.85 | 7 | lost | -7 | 165 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Zero Tenacity – benched gods | ex-Zero Tenacity | 1.77 | 8 | lost | -8 | 172 |
| 20.08.26 | Natus Vincere – Legacy | Natus Vincere | 1.87 | 8 | lost | -8 | 180 |
| 20.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Noir Verse | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.82 | 8 | lost | -8 | 188 |
| 20.08.26 | G2 Ares – Bebop | G2 Ares | 1.80 | 8 | won | +6 | 195 |
| 19.08.26 | Honvéd – Bushido Wildcats | Bushido Wildcats | 1.42 | 8 | lost | -8 | 189 |
| 19.08.26 | Permitta – Falcons Force | Permitta | 1.77 | 8 | lost | -8 | 197 |
| 19.08.26 | Metizport – Fire Flux | Fire Flux | 1.86 | 8 | lost | -8 | 205 |
| 19.08.26 | The Last Resort – OG | OG | 1.80 | 8 | won | +6 | 213 |
| 19.08.26 | FUT – magic | magic | 1.80 | 8 | lost | -8 | 206 |
| 19.08.26 | G2 – Astralis | G2 | 1.74 | 8 | won | +6 | 214 |
| 19.08.26 | Enjoy – ex-Zero Tenacity | Enjoy | 1.67 | 8 | lost | -8 | 208 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.66 | 8 | won | +5 | 216 |
| 19.08.26 | Black Phoenix – Raccoons | Black Phoenix | 1.83 | 8 | lost | -8 | 211 |
| 19.08.26 | HYPERSPIRIT – Permitta | HYPERSPIRIT | 1.78 | 8 | won | +6 | 219 |
| 19.08.26 | Misa – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.80 | 8 | won | +6 | 213 |
| 19.08.26 | GenOne – UNiTY | GenOne | 1.50 | 8 | won | +4 | 207 |
| 18.08.26 | Misa – Strael Bora | Strael Bora | 1.72 | 8 | lost | -8 | 203 |
| 18.08.26 | DONSTU – MOUZ NXT | MOUZ NXT | 1.77 | 8 | won | +6 | 211 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – OG | EAC | 1.74 | 8 | lost | -8 | 205 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – The Last Resort | The Last Resort | 1.86 | 8 | lost | -8 | 213 |
| 18.08.26 | Fire Flux – PCIFIC | Fire Flux | 1.82 | 8 | lost | -8 | 221 |
| 18.08.26 | Omega – Entropy | Omega | 1.46 | 8 | lost | -8 | 229 |
| 18.08.26 | Leo – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.78 | 8 | won | +6 | 237 |
| 18.08.26 | WBT – Mai Tai | WBT | 1.36 | 8 | won | +3 | 230 |
| 18.08.26 | Color – Misa | Color | 1.74 | 8 | won | +6 | 228 |
| 18.08.26 | Permitta – OG | Permitta | 1.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | 222 |
| 18.08.26 | MOUZ NXT – SPARTA | SPARTA | 1.80 | 8 | won | +6 | 230 |
| 18.08.26 | Metizport – DONSTU | Metizport | 1.70 | 8 | won | +6 | 223 |
| 18.08.26 | EAC – Fortress | EAC | 1.45 | 8 | won | +4 | 218 |
| 18.08.26 | Honvéd – Entropy | Honvéd | 1.86 | 8 | won | +7 | 214 |
| 18.08.26 | PCIFIC – Just Players | PCIFIC | 1.86 | 8 | lost | -8 | 207 |
| 17.08.26 | Revise – FORZE Reload | Revise | 1.81 | 8 | won | +6 | 215 |
| 17.08.26 | Bushido Wildcats – Inner Circle Academy | Bushido Wildcats | 1.41 | 8 | won | +3 | 209 |
| 17.08.26 | Nexus – G2 Ares | Nexus | 1.75 | 8 | lost | -8 | 206 |
| 17.08.26 | LPH – SAW Youngsters | LPH | 1.63 | 8 | won | +5 | 214 |
| 17.08.26 | ENCE – BERG | ENCE | 1.82 | 8 | won | +6 | 209 |
| 17.08.26 | benched gods – Phantom Academy | Phantom Academy | 1.77 | 8 | lost | -8 | 202 |
| 17.08.26 | ALKA – QUINTESSÊNCIA | ALKA | 1.82 | 8 | won | +6 | 210 |
| 16.08.26 | Lavked – INOX Division | INOX Division | 1.45 | 8 | lost | -8 | 204 |
| 16.08.26 | Legacy – MIBR | MIBR | 1.77 | 8 | lost | -8 | 212 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-Sashi Academy – Inner Circle Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.81 | 8 | lost | -8 | 220 |
| 16.08.26 | Keyd Stars – Imperial | Imperial | 1.65 | 8 | won | +5 | 228 |
| 16.08.26 | Astralis – Ninjas in Pyjamas | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.85 | 8 | lost | -8 | 223 |
| 16.08.26 | Fire Flux – GUESS | Fire Flux | 1.83 | 8 | won | +7 | 231 |
| 16.08.26 | Mai Tai – BERG | BERG | 1.51 | 8 | lost | -8 | 224 |
| 16.08.26 | INOX Division – BASEMENT BOYS | INOX Division | 1.65 | 8 | lost | -8 | 232 |
| 16.08.26 | MOUZ – PARIVISION | MOUZ | 1.64 | 8 | won | +5 | 240 |
| 16.08.26 | ENCE – WBT | WBT | 1.69 | 8 | won | +6 | 235 |
| 16.08.26 | BERG – HAVU | BERG | 1.66 | 8 | lost | -8 | 229 |
| 16.08.26 | The MongolZ – paiN | The MongolZ | 1.83 | 8 | won | +7 | 238 |
| 16.08.26 | Lynn Vision – Vitality | Lynn Vision | 1.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | 231 |
| 16.08.26 | ROUNDS – Vexar | Vexar | 1.65 | 8 | won | +5 | 239 |
| 16.08.26 | ex-MANA – ex-RUSTEC | ex-RUSTEC | 1.58 | 8 | won | +5 | 234 |
| 16.08.26 | paiN Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.66 | 8 | won | +5 | 229 |
| 15.08.26 | Spirit – BIG | Spirit | 1.74 | 8 | won | +6 | 224 |
| 15.08.26 | Noir Verse – ex-Sashi Academy | ex-Sashi Academy | 1.84 | 8 | lost | -8 | 218 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.