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Model favorite (Elo)

CSCS21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-1026u
ROI
-4%
win rate
57%
bets
2832
drawdown
110.6%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

payments
Stake size

1% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-49u
period 6top-up-242u
period 5top-up-244u
period 4top-up-157u
period 3top-up-148u
period 2top-up-166u
period 1top-up-19u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale164456%-142-0.3%62.6%Select
1% of bankroll283257%-1026-4%110.6%Select
Flat (10 units)283257%-1040-3.7%112.8%Select
2% of bankroll283257%-1992-4.3%206.1%Select
5% of bankroll283257%-4257-5.2%394.3%Select
10% of bankroll283257%-6049-6.4%482.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2832, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FURIA – BETBOOMFURIA1.759won+7-26
14.10.26FOKUS – YounglingsFOKUS1.539won+5-33
14.10.26FORZE Reload – LFO 10FORZE Reload1.479won+4-38
14.10.26Butterfly – Nuclear TigeRESNuclear TigeRES1.619won+6-43
14.10.26Just Players – FOKUSJust Players1.739lost-9-48
14.10.26G2 Ares – The Last ResortG2 Ares1.779won+7-39
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexRyvex1.869lost-9-46
14.10.26fnatic – Sashifnatic1.389won+4-37
14.10.26HOTU – AstralisHOTU1.589lost-9-40
14.10.26Banda Chuya – 666666661.499won+5-31
14.10.26HOTU – fnaticHOTU1.849won+8-35
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterRooster1.669won+6-43
14.10.269z – AuroraAurora1.469lost-9-49
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedGothic1.749lost-9-40
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyEnjoy1.879won+8-30
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorOvertake Sector1.659won+6-39
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANSUKEBAN1.729lost-9-45
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – GalorysGalorys1.439won+4-35
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSLOS NINOS1.789won+7-39
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyGenOne1.609lost-9-46
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaUPGRADE1.719won+7-37
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 6666Black Phoenix1.409won+4-44
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLJiJieHao1.679won+6-47
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansQUINTESSÊNCIA1.879won+8-54
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansBushido Wildcats1.769lost-9-62
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHao100 Thieves1.809won+7-52
13.10.26Liquid – BBLLiquid1.709won+6-60
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterRooster1.719won+6-66
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarOvertake Sector1.839won+7-72
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPLP1.679won+6-80
12.10.266666 – megoshort66661.789won+7-86
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsNuclear TigeRES1.459won+4-93
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansIllyrians1.729won+6-97
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.469won+4-103
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsPRIVATE1.669lost-9-107
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasNinjas in Pyjamas1.799won+7-98
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicSangal1.539won+5-105
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsChinggis Warriors1.749lost-9-110
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenFire Flux1.779lost-9-101
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicNinjas in Pyjamas1.509won+4-92
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYFruju1.749lost-9-96
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners1.829won+7-88
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainregain1.829lost-9-95
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters1.729won+6-86
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialImperial1.359lost-9-92
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC1.559won+5-83
11.10.26mellren – Lavkedmellren1.479won+4-88
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEBET-M1.879lost-9-92
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy1.539lost-9-83
11.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Just PlayersNuclear TigeRES1.819won+7-74
11.10.26GenOne – Banda ChuyaGenOne1.299won+3-82
11.10.26Bebop – mellrenmellren1.409won+4-84
11.10.26The KnockoutX – Alter EgoAlter Ego1.609won+5-88
11.10.26Aurora – SpiritSpirit1.509lost-9-93
11.10.26Just Players – MisaJust Players1.509won+4-84
11.10.26Ground Zero – AbyssalGround Zero1.699lost-9-88
11.10.26Abyssal – KZGAbyssal1.739won+7-80
11.10.26Ground Zero – FlyQuestFlyQuest1.699won+6-86
11.10.26Zomblers – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.739lost-9-92
11.10.26Wanted Goons – DETONATEDETONATE1.629won+6-83
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.