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Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

profit
-23584u
ROI
-98.3%
win rate
0%
bets
1019
drawdown
2358.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-822u
period 24top-up-908u
period 23top-up-956u
period 22top-up-982u
period 21top-up-991u
period 20top-up-947u
period 19top-up-984u
period 18top-up-989u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
1% of bankroll10200%-8063-96.7%806.3%Select
Flat (10 units)10200%-9847-96.5%984.7%Select
2% of bankroll10200%-13411-96.9%1341.1%Select
5% of bankroll10200%-20993-97.6%2099.3%Select
Quarter Kelly10190%-23584-98.3%2358.4%Selected
10% of bankroll10200%-24037-98.7%2403.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1019, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0020lost-20-22584
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0013lost-13-22564
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0014lost-14-22551
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0025lost-25-22538
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0017lost-17-22513
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3013lost-13-22495
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0031lost-31-22482
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0012lost-12-22451
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0012lost-12-22438
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.004lost-4-22427
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0038lost-38-22422
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxTeam Syntax12.0022lost-22-22385
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0044lost-44-22363
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0039lost-39-22319
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0053lost-53-22280
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0040lost-40-22227
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0048lost-48-22187
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0040lost-40-22139
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0070lost-70-22099
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0081lost-81-22029
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0090lost-90-21948
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0096lost-96-21857
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-21761
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0011lost-11-21751
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5013lost-13-21740
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.009lost-9-21727
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.006lost-6-21718
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.009lost-9-21713
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0017lost-17-21703
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0019lost-19-21686
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0021lost-21-21668
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0023lost-23-21647
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0026lost-26-21624
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0028lost-28-21599
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5032lost-32-21570
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0035lost-35-21539
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0039lost-39-21504
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0019lost-19-21465
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0034lost-34-21445
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0025lost-25-21411
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0038lost-38-21386
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0042lost-42-21348
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0026lost-26-21306
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8039lost-39-21280
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0022lost-22-21241
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0061lost-61-21219
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.006lost-6-21158
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0019lost-19-21152
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0031lost-31-21133
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0084lost-84-21101
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0021lost-21-21018
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0053lost-53-20997
03.07.26ALOHADANCE Team – By_Owl TeamALOHADANCE Team10.0089lost-89-20943
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.803lost-3-20854
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.005lost-5-20851
26.06.26Enjoy Boys – L1ga TeamEnjoy Boys14.004lost-4-20846
25.06.26VooDooSh Team – Recrent TeamRecrent Team8.506lost-6-20842
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.006lost-6-20836
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.007lost-7-20830
23.06.26Team Spirit – Enjoy BoysEnjoy Boys14.002lost-2-20823
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.